A player gets classified as a Type A free agent if, when he hits the open market, he falls in the top twenty percent at his position. Unlike Type B free agents, who, when signed, produce a supplementary pick for the team losing the player not at the expense of the signing team, Type A free agents cost the signing team when it comes to the draft. Continuing our look at the remaining players on the free agent market, we will now turn to the Type A relief pitchers. Five such relievers fit this bill, of whom two have already signed.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2-yr deal with the Angels with a third year option that will trigger as long as he remains the closer for both years. That may be tough given the dual presences of Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo, but his signing did not cost the Angels much for performance that will not be a terrible dropoff to that of K-Rod. Rodriguez is the other Type A reliever to sign, when he inked a 3-yr/$36 mil deal with the Mets. This leaves three such relievers available.

Two of these pitchers, Trevor Hoffman and Russ Springer, could be members of the AARP. The other, Juan Cruz, comes in ten years their junior.

Hoffman, 41, is coming off of a relative down season. Sure, he is the leader in saves for a career, but one has to wonder how much left he has in the tank. His projection calls for 54 innings at around a 3.50 FIP. Plugging his projected runs allowed into the formula used to determine relievers value above replacement, Hoffman amounts to a .612 pitcher in a .451 league. Taking the difference, multiplying by innings pitched, and dividing by nine pegs Trevor as worth +0.97 wins next season. The leverage of these innings must be taken into account as well.

A closer will generally hover between LIs of 1.80 and 2.30, meaning Hoffman could be worth anywhere from +1.75 to +1.95 wins next season. At 41 years old, Hoffman could still command $8.5 to $9.5 mil at fair market value. Given his age and the performance decline in 2008 as well as the market favoring the buyers, I could see him signing a one-year deal in the $6 mil range, but nothing more. He might want another year to go out on top, but overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.

His geriatric counterpart, Russ Springer, 40, has experienced tremendous success over the last two seasons as a member of the Cardinals. He has also been a workhorse over the last four seasons, with 62, 72, 76, and 70 appearances, respectively. In 2005 and 2006, Springer posted FIPs of 4.39 and 4.79, before a vast improvement to 2.83 in 2007 and 3.51 in 2008. His ERAs have improved as well, from 4.73 in 2005 to 2.32 in 2008.

Springer’s projection calls for a 3.42 FIP in 55 innings pitched. Plugging his numbers into the reliever formula places Springer at a winning percentage of .621. In a .451 league, this makes Springer a +1.05 win pitcher. Factoring in his inning leverage and Springer bumps up to +1.3 wins. Many teams have interest in Russ, and they should, given that he projects to be as valuable as, say, Ryan Madson was for the Phillies this past season. He might not receive a multi-year deal, but for one season at $4 or $5 mil, Springer could definitely strengthen a team’s bullpen.

That leaves just Juan Cruz, 30, who is coming off of three straight solid seasons. His ERA has improved from 4.18 to 3.10 to 2.61, with an FIP improvement from 4.09 to 3.70 to 3.62. We pretty much know what to expect from Cruz, given his recent track record: around 60-65 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.70 FIP. This makes Cruz a .623 pitcher. In a .451 league, he is worth around +1.2 wins. With leverage factored in, this bumps up to around +1.35 wins. At only 30, he should receive a multi-year deal, and the value may surpass that of Jeremy Affeldt’s, given the level of importance placed on bullpens, Cruz’s track record, and the fact that few relievers of his caliber are available. He is not necessarily a game changer, but he definitely helps a relief corps.

In a buyer’s market like the one we are currently witnessing, these three solid relievers could be had for much lesser than they would have signed for in other years. Expect to see a plethora of teams interested in Springer and Cruz, with Hoffman either going back to San Diego or signing on somewhere else for one last hoorah.

Milton Bradley and the Cubs have agreed in principle to a three year, $30 million contract sources indicate. How does this signing rate?

For one, it comes at the same time as the Rays nabbing Pat Burrell on a fantastic contract which should have helped depress the market a bit for players of Bradley’s ilk. First of all, Bradley is a fantastic hitter, capable of being worth around 40 runs over average per 600 PAs. Now, we shouldn’t and won’t project Bradley to hit that well, but he has shown in the past that his ceiling is around that mark. He’s also an above average fielder (though not by much). Those are the good bits.

The bad bit is that 600 PAs is not going to happen. It’s never happened before and it’s extremely unlikely to happen starting at age 31. Here’s a list of Milton Bradley’s games played in the outfield over the years, and as a percentage of total games played

Until 2008, Bradley has been devoted to playing the outfield, and in a vast majority of those years, he has suffered from injury. He has logged over 100 games in the field just once, 2004, his entire career. As an outfielder, Bradley could potentially still play center field and be adequate, or be above average in a corner slot. All in all, giving him a neutral rating for defense and position is a safe enough projection. It’s likely to be within five or so runs of his final tally. As a hitter, his projection is for about 25 runs over average per 600 PAs. Add in 20 runs for replacement, and you have yourself a 4.5 win player, exceedingly valuable and worth $20 million a year on a one-year deal, $18 million on a multi-year.

The problem is that as an outfielder, there is little justification for projecting more than 300-400 PAs per year from Bradley, and even that strikes me as potentially too optimistic. As a DH, we could have been more optimistic and looked at him as close to a full time hitter. Then again, as a DH, Bradley would lose around 20 runs worth of defensive value so the increase in playing time would have to immense to make it worth it. Of course, Bradley cannot DH now that he has signed with a National League team, so outfield it is. Given that we have to chop his projected value in half. Coincidentally, or not, that leaves us with almost an exact match to Bradley’s contract, meaning that for the value that you expect Bradley to provide, the Cubs appear to be correctly factoring in his health concerns.

That’s not to let them completely off the hook though, because there’s still the matter of what to do with the other 300 PAs while Bradley is on the disabled list and ignores that in order to clear payroll room for Bradley, the Cubs markedly undersold on Mark DeRosa, a player who, by the way, has been more valuable than Bradley each of the past three seasons and was signed for just $5.5 million and only through 2009.

Earlier today, we began our analysis of the eleven hitters classified as Type B free agents. Milton Bradley projected to be the most valuable of the initial six players, at +2.9 wins, while Griffey the Kid’s +0.10 win projection clocked in as the bleakest. Bradley also ended up the youngest of the group, as Garret Anderson, Moises Alou, Mark Grudzielanek, Luis Gonzalez, and Griffey are all pretty up there in the years department. That trend continues as the remaining five players are added to the mix.

Jeff Kent and Frank Thomas are both 41 years old, and Paul Lo Duca and Ivan Rodriguez are 37 years of age apiece. This leaves Juan Uribe, just 29, but who perhaps plays like an older declining player.

R.J. covered The Big Hurt this morning and wondered if his injury from a few years ago is the reason behind his decline last season, or if his power is simply gone. I would be more inclined to think he bounces back with the stick if given the opportunity in 2009. Maybe not back to the +2-3 win seasons produced in 2006-07, but his projection calls for around +1 wins. If a team can sign Thomas to a one-year deal under $5 mil, it would definitely be worth the risk.

His 41-yr old counterpart, Kent, is coming off of an injury-plagued season in which he realistically lost his job. With Blake DeWitt, James Loney, and Casey Blake all returning, Kent does not fit into the scheme of things for the Dodgers. He still has value, though, as prior to the injury suffered in 2008, his wOBA marks still made him quite effective. The same cannot be said for his defense at the keystone, though, which has consistently been worse than -10 runs for four years running. At +10 offense and -12 defense, Kent could be worth anywhere from +1.5 to +1.8 wins next year, depending on playing time. An $8-9 mil deal for a 41-yr old second baseman showing big signs of decline may not be realistic, but under the right circumstances, Jeff could still be right around a league average player.

Due to position scarcity and the adjustment he receives for playing time, Pudge may end up being the second most valuable player of this entire 11-man group. His offense is almost a win below average, but if we assume +3 run defense in 130 games and near 500 PA, Rodriguez comes out to +2.05 wins and $9.8 mil. Will he get a deal paying him close to $10 mil/yr? Who knows, but projected production level in 2009 makes the 37-yr old backstop worth that price.

This leaves Uribe and Lo Duca, the former of whom tops out at +1 win as a shortstop and a bit lower at second base or third base. Lo Duca is nothing more than a backup catcher these days, but, in that role, he could be worth +0.80 wins. A team in need of a backup catcher with experience could do much worse than signing Paul to a 1-yr deal paying him $4 mil or under. He made $5 mil last season for the Nationals and Marlins. He is nowhere near an all-star anymore, but catchers with experience and some semblance of talent always have value.

All told, Bradley still ranks #1 at +2.9 wins, with Pudge in second at +2.05 wins, and Kent in third at +1.80 wins. They are Type B free agents for a reason, with that reason being that they fell out of the top twenty percent at their position in 2008, meaning these are not going to be elite players. Teams will not have to surrender a draft pick if they choose to sign any of these players, but this group is old, features some players who will or should retire, and doesn’t scream “sign me!” outside of perhaps Bradley. There are definitely a few Hall of Fame players in this mix, but they are at the very ends of their careers.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are close to finalizing a two year, $16 million contract with Pat Burrell. He’ll fill their hole at DH and give them a right-handed power bat to fit into the middle of their line-up and provide some offensive depth.

For Burrell, I’m pretty sure this is not what he had in mind heading into the winter. He made $14 million last season in the final year of a six year, $50 million contract, so he’s taking about a 43 percent pay cut and handing in his outfielder’s glove in order to get a full time job with a contender. The reshaping of this free agent economy is certainly going to be humbling for some players, especially outfielders with poor defensive abilities.

From Tampa’s perspective, they have to be pretty happy with how things have worked out. Always on a budget, they couldn’t break the bank for a true all-star caliber player, but needed to add another quality position player to try to stay ahead of Boston and New York. Is Burrell that player?

Over the last four years, he’s been pretty consistent offensively, posting park adjusted batting of +28, +21, +26, and +25 runs. Despite hot and cold streaks, Burrell’s generated similar offensive value in each of the last four seasons. By signing him up to DH, the Rays are removing the defensive penalty he brought to the field. It’s really the best fit for Burrell at this point in his career, and makes him fairly easy to evaluate going forward, as we won’t have to deal with the uncertainty surrounding defensive performance.

If we project Burrell as a +18 run hitter compared to league average (as Marcel does), that’s almost an exact fit for the -17.5 run position adjustment that comes with being a full time DH. Even with expected age related decline, Burrell’s going to be an average major league player. He should be worth right around two wins above a replacement level player.

Those two wins cost the Rays $8 million per year, or $4 million per win. This just continues the trend we’ve seen this off-season, as this shapes up to be the best buyer’s market in recent history. Based on his +2 win projection, we’d have expected Burrell to get something like 3 years and $30 million if this was a normal off-season, but the economy forced him to sign for a discount in order to solidify a job with a winner.

For only about $5 million more than they spent on Cliff Floyd in 2008, the Rays are able to add a power/patience bat to their line-up that should fit in well with their offense for 2009 and 2010. With the DH hole filled, it’s fair to say that the Rays have an average or better player at every single position on their roster right now. A very good team just got a little bit better.

Continuing with our look at the Type B free agents available on the market right now, we will now venture into the land of offense. Eleven eligible free agent hitters were classified as Type B players by Elias this year. We will cover six of them now, and the remaining hitters tonight. The players of interest right now are: Moises Alou, Garret Anderson, Milton Bradley, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mark Grudzielanek. Bradley is the youngest of the bunch, but that isn’t saying much given his age of 31. This group has also experienced its fair share of injuries and decline.

Last season, their salaries ranged from Gonzo’s $2 mil with the Marlins to Griffey’s $12.5 mil from the 9-yr deal he signed back in 2000. Anderson made a lusty $12 mil as well, while Alou received $8.5 mil for very limited duty and Grudzielanek made $4 mil to play the keystone for the Royals. Bradley produced the best season of these six players and made just $5.25 mil. Suffice it to say, those on the high end of this group will receive lesser contracts while Bradley should see a somewhat significant raise. How do they look for the 2009 season?

Health has been an issue for Alou in recent years, as he has not played 150+ games since the 2004 season with the Cubs. Since then, he has participated in 123, 98, 87, and 15 games respectively. The guy can still rake, as evidenced by wOBA marks exceeding .385 from 2004-07, but his inability to stay on the field vastly reduces his value. If Moises can play around 90 games next season while amassing 300 PA, he could be worth around +0.80 wins.

At fair market value, that amounts to a one-year deal worth $3.7 mil. Unfortunately for Alou, the wide array of corner outfielders on the market this season drives down the price, meaning players like Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu, who have better health histories and projections, could be had for much cheaper fees than, say, last season.

Garret Anderson has been covered here a couple of times, but he is the lone corner outfielder who actually projects better in the field than as a designated hitter. His defense projects more positively than his offense moving forward which says more for his offensive decline than defensive prowess. Anderson projects to be worth +0.75 wins next season, good for $3.6 mil. Something tells me he will sign somewhere for more than that, but given the amount of available outfielders, his price may legitimately be driven down this far.

Bradley produced a stellar season with the stick in 2008, despite missing some time with injuries. He is somewhat of a conundrum when it comes to the defensive side of valuations. See, Bradley has talent with the glove, as his UZR numbers will show, but it seems that playing the field fuels the injury fire and keeps him off the field and out of the lineup. Regardless, he has by far the sunniest projection for next season, at around +2.9 wins.

This calls for a $13.9 mil salary for a one-year deal. Again, given the amount of outfielders available, as well as the deal Pat Burrell recently signed for (AAV of $8 mil), it isn’t likely that Milton will earn anywhere near that fee. The Cubs have shown the most interest, and a 3-yr/30 mil deal similar to that recently signed by Raul Ibanez may be in the cards. He will have to prove himself capable of staying on the field long enough to play the field before his eventual contract can truly be evaluated.

Next up comes Luis Gonzalez. Gonzo has had a solid career that I will, in no way, try to detract from. However, after a 2008 season in which he actually cost the Marlins money, it is time to hang up the cleats. With a +0.50 win projection and a fair market value of $2.3 mil, not enough upside exists to merit signing him for anything other than veteran leadership and/or backup outfielder/pinch-hitting duty. Teams may be better-served to simply call up a prospect to fill the latter void.

As much as it pains me to say this: Griffey is now virtually a replacement player. He has been awful defensively lately while showing a strong decline with the bat. His representatives are attempting to pin a poor 2008 showing on a persisting injury kept hidden, but he currently projects to just +0.10 wins. Even if his supposed injury hindered his performance, I cannot imagine it bumps his projection up to anything more than +0.50 or +0.60 wins. These figures are still well below average. He is a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Fame player, but unless he is willing to accept a fee of $3 mil or under, not even his leadership will cause the deal to make sense.

Lastly, we have Mark Grudzielanek, who looks like a +1.6 win player in 2009. This would match his 2008 win value, even though his projection calls for around 90 games and 450 PA. He is a half-win below average on offense while playing close to +5 run defense at second base. He made $4 mil in 2008 and has tossed around the idea of retirement, but would be worth near $7 mil at fair market value. While players like Gonzo or Griffey realistically should retire, but likely won’t, Grudzy may be the opposite.

Tonight, we will review the remaining five Type B free agent hitters and come up with our end value rankings. So far, Milton Bradley is far and away the leader, with second place Mark Grudzielanek coming in at about 1.3 wins less valuable.

The Cleveland Indians organization has been busy this off-season with the acquisition of former Cubs infielder Mark DeRosa, as well as serving as the third team in the Seattle-New York (NL) trade of J.J. Putz. Prior to those moves, though, the club added four players to the 40-man roster (Five really, but Jeff Stevens was one of the players used to acquire DeRosa). The organization added right-hander Hector Rondon, outfielder Trevor Crowe, and catchers Carlos Santana and Chris Gimenez.

Rondon, 20, is on the fast-track to Cleveland. Prior to the 2008 season, his name was not even mentioned amongst the club’s top prospects. He just made Baseball America’s Top 30 Prospects List for the organization last year, coming in at No. 28. The 2009 handbook is not out yet, but you can bet Rondon is going to be listed a lot higher this season. In 145 High-A innings, the right-hander allowed just 130 hits and posted rates of 2.61 BB/9 and 9.00 K/9. He also allowed just 12 home runs (0.74 HR/9). His repertoire includes an 89-93 mph fastball, a developing curveball and a change-up. Rondon will be 21 when the 2009 season begins and he will also be in Double-A, not far from a Major League call-up.

Crowe has had an up-and-down minor league career and was considered one of Cleveland’s top prospects after the 2006 season. After stealing 45 bases that season, the 14th overall pick in the 2005 draft stole just 18 in 2008 while battling injuries. He also has not developed much in-game power and his batting average has fluctuated: .329 in High-A ball in 2006, .234 in Double-A in 2006, .259 in Double-A in 2007, .323 in Double-A in 2008, and .274 in Triple-A in 2008. With Grady Sizemore in center-field for Cleveland, Crowe’s only shot at playing everyday is at a corner spot and he lacks the offensive potential for such a position.

Santana was obtained last season from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade and instantly became Cleveland’s catcher of the future. He could eventually force Victor Martinez to first base full-time and Kelly Shoppach back to the second string catcher’s role. In 2008, split between High-A and Double-A, he hit more than 20 home runs, batted above .300 and walked more than he struck out. Did I mention he scored 125 runs and drove in 117? At this point the switch-hitter’s offensive game is pretty solid but he needs to focus on his defence behind the dish, having begun his career in the outfield and at third base.

Gimenez has the lowest ceiling of the bunch. The now 26-year-old began the 2008 season in Double-A and hit .339/.489/.537 with an ISO of .198 in 177 at-bats. He then moved up to Triple-A and hit .272/.349/.374 with an ISO of .103 in 195 at-bats. Gimenez also posted rates of 10.6 BB% and 30.8 K% at Triple-A. His true value comes from his versatility. Along with catching, he can also play at third base, first base and in the outfield.

Before moving on, I wanted to do one more post on the Win Value series we covered last week, emphasizing a few points that may have got lost in the shuffle. While we think these win value stats are a tremendous addition to the site and should be extremely useful, we also want to maintain integrity in how we talk about them and the ways they are used. So, with that said, here’s some things to keep in mind.

All catchers are assumed to be average defensively.

This is obviously not true, but in terms of quantifying catcher defense, we’re just not there yet. We have a pretty good idea that most major league catchers fall somewhere between -10 runs and +10 runs, based on their ability to block balls in the dirt, control the running game, and so forth. So, as a general guideline, if you think the catcher is awful defensively (maybe Ryan Doumit is a good example), knock one win off. If you think he’s just below average (Ramon Hernandez?), knock off half a win. If you think he’s above average (Kurt Suzuki?), add half a win. if you think he’s outstanding (Joe Mauer?), add a full win.

There are a few things not included.

The only aspect of baserunning that is currently included is SB/CS. Throwing arms and turning double plays are currently not included in the fielding evaluations. In general, no one’s going to be more than +5 or -5 in these minor areas, but for guys at the extremes, it could be half a win or so.

We’re measuring past performance, not necessarily true talent level.

Just because Jayson Werth put up a +5 win season in 2008 does not mean that we’re saying he is a +5 win player. It is pretty common for people to play above or below their actual level of abilities. Don’t get too wrapped up over a single season performance.

The leagues are not necessarily even in talent level in every year.

For recent years, there’s a good bit of evidence that the AL has been better than the NL. It may even be slightly more accurate to use league specific replacement level adjustments, especially for the ‘05-’07 time period. We’ll work on trying to quantify the differences in leagues going all the way back to ‘02 so that we could potentially include the league differences later on.

The dollars to win adjustments aren’t super easy to calculate.

Reasonable people can differ on what the market value of a marginal win was in different years. I think my methods work pretty well, but they aren’t perfect. The margin for error is probably around $500,000 in each direction for recent years.

Most importantly, we’re not claiming decimal point accuracy with these win values.

If someone is listed at 4.8 wins, and someone else is listed at 4.3 wins, there could be enough mitigating factors that the lower win value player was actually more valuable. When the differences are less than one win, don’t be dogmatic about your conclusions. I generally use whole number win values anyway, and I think we’re best served saying that we’re aware of some of the things we haven’t covered yet, and that there’s some wiggle room in the numbers.

Make no mistake - I think these are the best single value metric for evaluating a player on the internet today. I’d use a player’s Win Value number to describe his total performance before I used anything else. But we’re not saying they’re perfect or that they can’t be improved upon. We’ll keep working on getting better data, figuring things out, and making them even more accurate in the future. Right now, they’re great. Hopefully, by this time next year, they’re even better.

The biggest loser at the hands of an over-saturated designated hitter market is none other than the Big Hurt himself, Frank Thomas. 40-years-old and finally removed from a nightmarish 2008 season, Thomas is recovering from a right quad strain that kept him out for the majority of the second half. Eric covered the corner outfield/DH types not too long ago, so how does Thomas stack up?

Last season was hardly the first time Thomas’ right quadriceps caused a stir. The same injury cost him a few weeks in 2006, which just so happens to be the renaissance of Thomas’ career. Recall that Thomas was in his first season with the Oakland Athletics on a contract suitable more for Charles Thomas than Frank. Not only did Thomas out earn his contract by 12 million, but he also earned himself a multiple year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, where again he would hit well enough to be worth eight-figures. Thomas and the Jays would have a falling out in early 2008, leading to his termination and return to the place of revival.

As an Athletic, Thomas saw his on-base percentage jump to .364, but still lacked the power that made him synonymous with homeruns in the 1990’s. As mentioned, Thomas’ quad would end his season early, but he still found a way to be worth positive value in 2008, finishing at 0.4 wins, or roughly 1.9 million.

Statistically, Thomas was fine. His line drive rates were in line with expectations, along with his batting average on balls in play, and walk rates. A slight increase in strikeout rates certainly was not to blame for his power collapse, so what gives? Thomas’ HR/FB percentage again declined, a trend that dates back to 2006. Down to 7.9%, Thomas would only hit eight homeruns, half of his total extra base hits.

Moving forward, the question is whether Thomas power was sapped due to his quad injury, or if this collapse is for real. It’s worth noting that this was the second worst offensive season of Thomas career behind 2001 which was also derailed by injuries. If teams feel comfortable placing the troubles on the big man’s right leg, which passes the logic test – Thomas leg-drive certainly plays a role in generating bat speed and power – Thomas can make a decent low-cost designated hitter option, capable of outplaying his paycheck.

I just finished a fairly large minor league stats update. A number of standard statistics have been added such as IBB, SF, SH, etc… so any stats that should have included those now actually do include them. This will mainly effect things like all the wOBA stats.

Things you can look forward to in the coming months and next season are minor league game logs, improved leaderboards, batted ball data (LD/FB/GB), and the addition of the Dominican, Venezuelan and Mexican leagues.

All of the minor league player-ids have also been updated, but you shouldn’t notice anything different on your end. If you do see any problems please let me know.

Yesterday we took a look at the five Type B free agent starting pitchers currently on the market: Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Braden Looper, John Smoltz, and Randy Wolf. Today we will venture into the land of Type B relievers. What is a Type B free agent, though? Simply put, the top 20% at each position garner the Type A classification, and the next 20% become Type B players.

The rankings are determined by a specific formula implemented by Elias and an example of the end results can be found here. When a Type B free agent is signed, the team losing said player earns a supplemental draft pick. Unlike Type A free agents, however, the signing team does not have to surrender any picks. If a team does not offer its own pending Type B free agents arbitration, they will not earn any supplemental picks upon the departure of the free agent. This, as mentioned yesterday, happened with Smoltz.

Right now, six relievers on the market are classified as Type B players: Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, Dennys Reyes, and Brian Shouse. To determine their fair market values, the formula introduced by TangoTiger and used most recently in Matt’s analysis of Brian Fuentes comes into play:

A: (RA + LeagRA) ^ 0.28
B: (LeagRA/RA) ^ A
Win%: B/(B+1)

After probing various projection sources to determine the RA numbers for these six pitchers, the results can be seen below:

NAME                  IP      RA
Luis Ayala            72     4.36
Joe Beimel            54     4.02
Eric Gagne            53     4.15
Jason Isringhausen    47     4.21
Dennys Reyes          51     4.08
Brian Shouse          53     4.08

Plugging the numbers above into the formula, assuming a replacement percentage of .451, as well as incorporating the leverage of innings pitched into the equation, here are the WAR results:

NAME                 WIN%     WAR
Luis Ayala          .514     +0.60
Joe Beimel          .550     +0.65
Eric Gagne          .536     +0.55
Jason Isringhausen  .529     +0.74
Dennys Reyes        .544     +0.62
Brian Shouse        .544     +0.60

And, with the going rate between $4.7-$5 mil per win, here are their fair market values as well as salaries earned in 2008:

NAME                2009 FMV   2008 SAL
Luis Ayala          $2.8 mil   $1.7 mil
Joe Beimel          $3.1 mil   $1.925 mil
Eric Gagne          $2.7 mil   $10 mil
Jason Isringhausen  $3.5 mil   $8 mil
Dennys Reyes        $3.0 mil   $1 mil
Brian Shouse        $2.8 mil   $2 mil

Relievers generally are not worth too many wins due to the small samples of performance, but all six of these pitchers project to be better than a half-win above replacement. Ayala is a workhorse, which makes him almost as valuable as the others despite the lowest winning percentage. He, Beimel, and Reyes are all 31 years old, the youngest of the group.

Gagne follows at 33 years old, but should not earn anywhere near the $10 mil Milwaukee signed him for prior to last season. Izzy is 36 and coming off of a poor, injury-plagued season. The projections see him bouncing back a bit, but his days as a dominant force are likely behind him. Shouse, a lefty specialist in every sense of the term, is 40, but still adds value. Much of the bullpen talk this offseason has centered around the closers like K-Rod and Fuentes, but here are six relievers that could be had on the cheap while strengthening a bullpen and not costing their new teams a draft pick.