Comments on: 2009 MLB Trade Value: #15-#11

By: Chauncey Rosen

Chauncey Rosen — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:05:59 +0000

The thing about a beginner is that they’re eager. This is both good and bad. It’s good because they’ll put full effort into things and learn as much as they can, it’s bad because their eagerness makes them impatient! Many’s the beginner who didn’t get dramatic results in the first month and gave up because of it.

By: OneManWreckingMachine

OneManWreckingMachine — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 08:46:28 +0000

Credit goes to dextermorgan of NorthSideBaseball, as he put it best:

“Why isn’t he getting more attention? He’s having an unbelievable season and has been by far the best pitcher in baseball this year.

138 IP
93 H
18 BB
137 K
12 HR
1.96 ERA
.80 WHIP

A few more K’s and he’d be in Pedro-in-his-prime territory. Carrying a .80 WHIP this late into the season is ridiculous.”

That’s just too good a season.

By: JonnyBS

JonnyBS — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:52:41 +0000

If we are talking about who is worth more in trade, then shouldn’t we take into account of the fact that Tulowitzki can void his contract if he’s traded during the length of the contract? Shouldn’t that make Zimmerman worth more in terms of trade value?

By: BIP

BIP — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 01:20:02 +0000

I’m guessing after all the crap he’s had to deal with in articles he’s commented on, that he’s given up on participating in these discussions.

By: Mike I

Mike I — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 00:14:58 +0000

It’s somewhat misleading to point out Tulo’s Coors/Away splits and say that we can find out more about his bat by how he hits away from Coors. That is, all hitters generally can be expected to hit a little better at home than away. I can’t find how large this effect might be, but it’s probably not out of line to suggest an average OPS 30-50 points higher at home.

By: Rox Girl

Rox Girl — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 00:14:32 +0000

Brad, those listed players were in response to the quoted person who was doing exactly what you’re trying to get on me for with even a smaller sample of just one or two players in saying that Coors Field’s park factor was too low. It wasn’t responding to you. Those players actually represent the same kind of diverse mix of guys on their way up and down you’d find leaving any other team. Players clearly in decline when they left the Rockies such as Charles Johnson and Larry Walker are balanced out by players on their way up such as Juan Uribe or Aaron Miles. Players regressing down after clear peak seasons like Holliday are balanced by players regressing up from subpar (to their standards) seasons like Carroll. My point remains that the park factor should be the preferable tool to use when evaluating the true level of these players, not some unadjusted raw road numbers.

But it seems so many here, yourself included by using only his road stats and not a true park adjusted sum that incorporates both home and away performances, are insistent on dinging Tulo and other Rockies players more than what’s really deserved or supported by a comprehensive analysis and subsequently more than you’d handicap any other group of players. The burden should be on you to support why this is a better course than looking at the park adjusted figures, but I haven’t seen it besides the anecdotes of Matt Holliday, who’s regression seems to be well within a normal range for his age when the difference in parks is accounted for.

Tulo’s offense when you take a park adjusted wOBA average is ahead of the pace of J.J. Hardy, Furcal, Rollins, Stephen Drew and Tejada at this age, but behind those of HanRam, Jeter and Jose Reyes. Yunel Escobar’s bat may have been a little ahead, it’s hard to tell since he spent much of that age season in AAA, given his power Tulo is likely to be a better hitter in his 26-29 year old seasons than Escobar as well. Hanley and Jeter go beyond elite status when it comes to hitting, and I’m sure most people would agree that Reyes is elite.

Honestly, I don’t know if Tulo is or is not going to become elite, but he is very good, and he’s better than he’s given credit for by the comments here, and for his salary the Rockies are getting a bargain that I didn’t even realize we were getting until I started looking at it this afternoon. I don’t know if I’d rank him #15, but I don’t think he’s as far off as all the hue and cry on FanGraphs today would make it seem.

By: Slick

Slick — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 22:57:13 +0000

You clearly didn’t hear what I was saying. I completely understand Kemp’s value to his team or any team. What I was saying was that I have no problem with Torre burying him in the Dodgers lineup because I have faith in managers with winning credentials and that they know what they are doing. I don’t hate Matt Kemp. I just don’t like when a player is judged on what he might potentially do in different spot in the order or what he might do in the following years based on his stats from previous years. Its proven time and time again that regression or progression do not follow linear paths. Just like this year, no one predicted David Wright wouldn’t be able to hit HRs like he has before or no one predicted Jimmy Rollins would get caught in a half season slump. But I am sure everyone and their dog were predicting a progression or at least on par with how they performed last year.

By: Brad

Brad — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:32:24 +0000

Rox, blasting a ton of players like that really doesn’t tell us anything about Tulo’s situation. I don’t have the energy to look into them, so this is total guess work, but there are tons of reasons why a player might have a better season after he left colorado. He could have been entering his prime, he could have been injured in colorado, he may have been platooned the next year, etc.

What I can tell you about Tulo is that over the course of his career he has played much better at Coors than on the road. I can think of no substantial reason why a player would consistently play better at home than on the road (except for luck, or small sample size). So in my opinion, his numbers are greatly inflated by his home ball park. A more accurate reflection of his actual talent is that .720 OPS on the road, which even you would agree is not elite.

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:28:27 +0000

i agree he is valuable, but #15? look at the players before and after
also his home/away split should factor in

By: Rox Girl

Rox Girl — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:09:02 +0000

“It seems like Colorado’s park factors are understated because every Rockie player seems to drop off the planet when they leave.”

Especially all those middle infielders… Look, I know how much you want to hang your hat on Matt Holliday and only Matt Holliday as being the final arbiter of this, but what you’re saying is hardly supported.

Here are the season (or half season in the case of P. Wilson and L. Walker) before and after OPS+ of the significant players (those that had starting or primary bench roles with both teams) that have moved from Coors Field to other venues since the humidor went online. Maybe I’m missing a couple, but it’s not intentional in a quick survey:

Juan Uribe 2003 OPS+ 76, 2004 OPS+ 111
Ron Belliard 2003 OPS+ 87, 2004 OPS+ 106
Mark Bellhorn 2003 OPS+ 60, 2004 OPS+ 107
Jay Payton 2003 OPS+ 110, 2004 OPS+ 88
Larry Walker 2004 (COL) OPS+ 166, 2004 (STL) OPS+ 143
Royce Clayton 2004 OPS+ 80 2005 OPS+ 74
Jeromy Burnitz 2004 OPS+ 121 2005 OPS+ 94
Charles Johnson 2004 OPS+ 91, 2005 OPS+ 66
Aaron Miles 2005 OPS+ 65 2006 OPS+ 74
Preston Wilson 2005 (COL) OPS+ 100 2005 (WSN) OPS+ 105
Todd Greene 2005 OPS+ 85, 2006 OPS+ 94
Jamey Carroll 2007 OPS+ 56, 2008 OPS+ 85
Kaz Matsui 2007 OPS+87, 2008 OPS+ 106
Willy Taveras 2008 OPS+56, 2009 OPS+53
Matt Holliday 2008 OPS+140, 2009 OPS+ 117

It averages to 92 in Colorado, 95 the next season in another stadium.