Comments on: 2009 MLB Trade Value: #20-#16

By: Jason

Jason — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:20:36 +0000

Sky:

What is Felix’s FA value? 2009 WAR x $4.5M? 2007-2009 weighted WAR? What am I using here?

What is your best educated guess? Thanks.

By: ebc

ebc — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 20:45:33 +0000

The problem with the Cole Hamels comparison, aside from the fact that Lincecum will likely have a far more impressive resume by the time they enter the hearing room, is that Hamels never went to arbitration. When players sign three-year deals, they’re almost always giving up something in annual salary. And still his annual salary was just under $7 million, not $4.35 million.

I don’t think anyone has ever entered the arbitration years with Lincecum’s credentials. He’s clearly more valuable than Ryan Howard was at the same point, though arbiters may well be overly smitten with home runs and rbi’s. Regardless, if the Giants offer anything less than $10 million, I bet they’re going to lose.

By: cpebbles

cpebbles — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 18:14:52 +0000

No, but he is easily well above average in CF. I’ll agree that the 3.0 half-season WAR is inflated, but I don’t think 6 WAR seasons are out of the question because he’s already better than a .350 wOBA offensive player and he’s 22.

By: Chris

Chris — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:53:26 +0000

Let’s also not forget the guy was Baseball America’s #3 prospect coming into the year. Rasmus could be one of the 5 best players in baseball at his peak.

By: B

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:55:59 +0000

Maybe you’re right, maybe not, I don’t really know what’s going to happen. We’ll see. :)

At this point my only real objection is still the Ryan Howard comp, because arbitration has never treated hitters and pitchers alike, so I just really think Howard’s contract has absolutely no effect on what Lincecum gets. The year before Howard won his case, Miguel Cabrera got $7.4M in arbitration, so you’re looking at a $2.6M increase in the record. Maybe that has some bearing on the increase Lincecum gets over Hamels – $4.35 + 2.6 = $6.95M – but I don’t know.

By: Alex

Alex — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:44:17 +0000

The point though is that Lincecum would be far beyond comparisons to any pitchers that went through the process and as the winner of the CYA (possibly multiple times) he deserves similar compensation to what Howard got as an MVP winner. As I remember, Howard also set the record for hitters by a large amount when he went through the process.

The difference between Hamels and Lincecum is also going to end up being pretty large in terms of the numbers they’ll be looking at. Lincecum is already 35-12, while Hamels was 38-23. He’s got almost a half run advantage in ERA and that’s likely to widen. You can also throw in strikeouts, where Lincecum should end up with about a 150 K advantage. Oh, then there’s a CYA or two, which should have some value attached to it.

I’m not saying he’ll definitely get 10 million, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he did, especially if the Giants go too low with their offer.

By: Bmore

Bmore — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:40:50 +0000

haha good catch, but I assume he meant just meant that Felix can stoke off a bunch of guys.

Oops, typo. ‘strike out’

By: Alex

Alex — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:36:37 +0000

Since when did assuming health equate to assuming 200-250 HR after the age of 30? Besides Kent is a huge exception to the rule. Its very rare for a player to keep performing at that high of a level for that long. Its certainly possible Utley could do these things, but you have to realize that you’re assuming a lot more than just him being healthy.

By: Davidceisen

Davidceisen — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:28:32 +0000

As long as he continues to outperform Jeff Kent’s career, I think he’s likely to make it:

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1679&playerid2=1119&playerid3=&position=2B&page=8&type=full

Assuming health he is likely to finish his career with between 350-400 HR, 100 SB, a good BA, and solid RBI and run numbers–which is what the HoF is all about.

By: B

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:06:45 +0000

Howard isn’t a pitcher, though, and hitters have a much longer history of receiving much, much more in arbitration than pitchers. The highest any pitcher has ever gotten in their first arbitration eligible year is Hamels at $4.35M. I don’t know the arbitration process well enough to know how much Lincecum’s extra performance is worth over Hamels. I do see Hamels as the baseline, though (not necessarily a comparison as much as a starting point for determining pay), and then it depends on how much gets added on for Lincecum’s extra performance. I think more than doubling what Hamels got is pretty outlandish.