The problem with projections is that it (necessarily) has to rely on prior performances to estimate what is going to happen in the future. What it did not see was that Sandoval had not figured out how to hit for power previously, but finally it clicked in during June 2009, and he was able to maintain a higher rate of HR hitting that his prior performances would not have indicated.

The system (nor outside analysts) also cannot understand Sandoval’s body type and find out via reading that despite his roly-poly stature, he is very athletic. It could not see Sandoval make a beautiful off-the-plate slide to touch home plate and avoid the tag with almost zero margin for error, then the following week see Sandoval somehow leap over the catcher’s mitt to score another run. He is the bumblebee of baseball players. They were plays that almost brought a tear to my eye, they were so beautiful. I’ve seen probably close to 1000 games, so this is not hyperbole, they were displays of great base running.