Comments on: 2009 Replacement Level: Center Field

By: Rally

Rally — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:29:18 +0000

Yes, the projection includes many more players than will play in major leagues. This is the result of trying to estimate the available talent level from A+ to the majors. So it’s probably better to just use last year’s major league averages, unless you want to go through and weight them based on who should actually get MLB playing time.

By: philosofool

philosofool — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 01:05:09 +0000

How are you calculating play time projections when you determine the average? Because the sum of all the at bats in CHONE almost is four times what actually occurred last year. This is standard for projection systems, which are supposed to capture something other than managerial decisions, like how a particular player would do if he were selected by his team to play his position out of spring training. You see where this is going: unless you correctly weight the CHONE projections to what players will actually be given in terms of play time, the worst players will be excessively weighed in the OBP average and hence the OBP average will be too low. I doubt that CHONE intends to project OBP to fall by much next season, though of course it’s hard to be sure.

You’re right that those guys are annual minor league contract guys. That certainly favors the view according to which these guys are really undervalued.

By: Terminator X

Terminator X — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:46:14 +0000

Silva is an extreme groundballer, but yes we’re all hoping that’s the plan for Washburn and maybe a lucky bullpen arm or two.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:22:31 +0000

We don’t care about last year. We’re dealing with the ’09 projections. The league average wOBA in the CHONE projections for 2009 is .330.

As for the anomaly, I don’t know – these guys are minor league free agents every year. It’s not like this the first year that these seven guys have been freely available. They’ve kicked around from organization to organization.

By: philosofool

philosofool — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:08:25 +0000

The league average OBP last season in the AL was .336 and in the NL .331, so for an AL CF with a .306 wOBP, he’s actually -15 runs, not -12, runs below average.

Another possible locus of explanation is that 2008/2009 off season is anomalous regarding CF, i.e. this year, it’s simply coincidence or accident. It would seem to me that in any given year, we can expect that the market is going to be a little in efficient. If several teams happen to have recently locked up an average or better CF, it’s going to be a bad time to be a free agent CF. (anyway, there’s a hypothesis for test: it’s not like that every year.)

Another possibility is that the CF skill set is undervalued.

By: Sky

Sky — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:05:43 +0000

Quite intriguing!

And yet, the offensive batting line for center fielders is right in line with the defensive positional adjustment.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/12/22/698572/comparing-offensive-and-de

By: Jacob Jackson

Jacob Jackson — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:04:59 +0000

and the O’s are doing the same thing. I think both those front offices are doing a very good job in the last 6 months.

Both are demonstrating a better understanding of “the competitive/win cycle,” baseball economics, and less traditional baseball-card stats.

By: obsessivegiantscompulsive

obsessivegiantscompulsive — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:03:54 +0000

Don’t forget Gary Mathews Jr. (I’m sure the Angels would like to though…)

By: Jacob Jackson

Jacob Jackson — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 22:01:41 +0000

Great point. It’s harder to see great outfield defense. For that matter, sometimes average outfield defense can LOOK spectacular, because a guy is slow, poorly positioned, or gets bad jumps.

Nook Logan has the ability to catch a ball in stride that Jim Edmonds and Aaron Rowand have to dive for. But Edmonds and Rowand look more spectacular doing it.

I feel like this scenario happens more in the outfield than it does at short or second.

By: devil_fingers

devil_fingers — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 21:52:25 +0000

Texas is an interesting example on the OF/IF issue, in particular, since they were willing to move a bad glove/OK bat off of SS in favor of a very young prospect (Andrus) who looks like he might be the second coming of Adam Everett… with the bat, anyway.