Comments on: 2009 Replacement Level: First Base http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61570 obsessivegiantscompulsive Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:03:25 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61570 Thanks Dave! Thanks Dave!

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61544 Dave Cameron Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:31:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61544 Just use CHONE. Marcel doesn't include minor league numbers (so is useless for a guy with a limited MLB sample like Ishikawa), the BJO projections are nutty, and Brian has to prove that Oliver's MLE conversion is predictive. No point averaging all the systems together - CHONE is the best, so defer to it. Ishikawa - +0 offense,+0 to +5 defense, -12.5 position, so he's +7.5 to +12.5, depending on his glove work. Better than replacement level, but below average. He looks like a decent bench player, but not a good everyday guy. Just use CHONE. Marcel doesn’t include minor league numbers (so is useless for a guy with a limited MLB sample like Ishikawa), the BJO projections are nutty, and Brian has to prove that Oliver’s MLE conversion is predictive. No point averaging all the systems together – CHONE is the best, so defer to it.

Ishikawa – +0 offense,+0 to +5 defense, -12.5 position, so he’s +7.5 to +12.5, depending on his glove work. Better than replacement level, but below average.

He looks like a decent bench player, but not a good everyday guy.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61542 obsessivegiantscompulsive Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:24:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61542 OK, lets go with that one. His next best projection has him +4.5 runs, add the +5 for defense, -12.5 for position, that leaves him at -3 runs or -0.3 wins. From what I understand, the point of these posts are to find replacement level players, and -2 wins is that level, with 0 considered average. Since -0.3 wins is closer to 0 than to -2, doesn't that mean that he's about average with that projection too? And the next lower projection puts him at -4 runs/-0.4 wins, and the worse projection has him at - 7 runs/-0.7 wins, which are both still closer to average than replacement level, or so what I'm getting from this series, and not what you are saying. Am I getting anything wrong there? OK, lets go with that one. His next best projection has him +4.5 runs, add the +5 for defense, -12.5 for position, that leaves him at -3 runs or -0.3 wins.

From what I understand, the point of these posts are to find replacement level players, and -2 wins is that level, with 0 considered average. Since -0.3 wins is closer to 0 than to -2, doesn’t that mean that he’s about average with that projection too? And the next lower projection puts him at -4 runs/-0.4 wins, and the worse projection has him at – 7 runs/-0.7 wins, which are both still closer to average than replacement level, or so what I’m getting from this series, and not what you are saying. Am I getting anything wrong there?

]]> By: Brian Cartwright http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61533 Brian Cartwright Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:37:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61533 If you believe bill James, Ishikawa is nearly average. The rest ofthe projections have him as a not far above replacement 1b, well below average for that position (in other words, it's not very hard to find someone who will do better, at little price). Phelps' hitting has never been the problem. He started as a catcher, and if his defense there was nearly adequate, he would be one of the top offensive cathcers in the majors. Toronto tried, and it didn't work. At 1b, he's about average. If you believe bill James, Ishikawa is nearly average. The rest ofthe projections have him as a not far above replacement 1b, well below average for that position (in other words, it’s not very hard to find someone who will do better, at little price).

Phelps’ hitting has never been the problem. He started as a catcher, and if his defense there was nearly adequate, he would be one of the top offensive cathcers in the majors. Toronto tried, and it didn’t work. At 1b, he’s about average.

]]> By: Blackadder http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61523 Blackadder Tue, 03 Feb 2009 14:34:25 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61523 I'm impressed that Phelps projects a .355 wOBA. If teams believed he was going to hit that well, I think he would have garnered a major league contract. I’m impressed that Phelps projects a .355 wOBA. If teams believed he was going to hit that well, I think he would have garnered a major league contract.

]]> By: Scappy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61522 Scappy Tue, 03 Feb 2009 14:23:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61522 Nope At worst he should cost your team 0.7 wins, and at best he will net your team 0.4 wins. Given the spread in wOBA he should come in a hair under 0 as you have stated. Nope

At worst he should cost your team 0.7 wins, and at best he will net your team 0.4 wins. Given the spread in wOBA he should come in a hair under 0 as you have stated.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61497 obsessivegiantscompulsive Tue, 03 Feb 2009 06:32:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61497 Does that mean that Travis Ishikawa is a nearly average 1B? His wOBA projections put him in the .330's, though he's upper end, which is around what these guys have, but his defense is at least average, if not better (by reputation). .330+ wOBA means offense above 0: .331 CHONE: +0.5 runs .337 Oliver: +3.5 runs .339 Marcel: +4.5 runs .353 Bill James: +11.5 runs So he looks like around +5 runs offensively (average of the four), his UZR/150 was roughly +5 runs in 2008, minus -12.5 position, leaving -2.5 runs. If he's as good as advertised defensively, then he's roughly at 0 runs, or average. Did I miss anything? Does that mean that Travis Ishikawa is a nearly average 1B? His wOBA projections put him in the .330′s, though he’s upper end, which is around what these guys have, but his defense is at least average, if not better (by reputation).

.330+ wOBA means offense above 0:

.331 CHONE: +0.5 runs
.337 Oliver: +3.5 runs
.339 Marcel: +4.5 runs
.353 Bill James: +11.5 runs

So he looks like around +5 runs offensively (average of the four), his UZR/150 was roughly +5 runs in 2008, minus -12.5 position, leaving -2.5 runs. If he’s as good as advertised defensively, then he’s roughly at 0 runs, or average.

Did I miss anything?

]]> By: Jacob Jackson http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-first-base/#comment-61481 Jacob Jackson Tue, 03 Feb 2009 01:19:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2749#comment-61481 This is an extremely valuable series of articles Dave, thank you. I hope you'll have the opportunity to do them for each position. This is an extremely valuable series of articles Dave, thank you. I hope you’ll have the opportunity to do them for each position.

]]>