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2010 Trade Value: #30 – #26

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31

#30 – Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas

The Rangers second baseman is not just one of the better all around players at his position, but he’s also one of the best bargains. He’s got three years left on his original long-term contract with the Rangers, and will be paid just $23 million over the remainder of that deal. He’s been a +4 to +5 win player in each of the last two years and is well on his way to matching that total again this year, making him an All-Star being paid like an average player. That’s tremendously valuable, and he’s one of the main reasons why Texas is the team to beat in the AL West.

#29 – David Price, SP, Tampa Bay

The starter in yesterday’s All-Star Game, Price’s improvements over last year are more incremental than his ERA may lead you to believe. His walks are down slightly and his strikeout and groundball rates are up slightly, so he is pitching better, but he’s not yet an ace. He may still become one, and given his stuff, every team in baseball would gladly wait for him to develop into one of the game’s best pitchers, but he’s not there yet. He is, however, a quality starter making very little money and under team control for another five years. He doesn’t have to be an ace yet to be highly coveted.

#28 – Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland

Over the last three years, Choo has posted wOBAs of .402, .389, and .382. He’s been consistently above average at every facet of the game, and yet he flies under the radar because his teammates haven’t performed up to his level. An thumb injury has derailed his 2010 season, but his long-term future is still very bright. He’d rank higher if he wasn’t headed for arbitration with Scott Boras as his agent, making a long term, team friendly deal less likely. Still, the Indians should be able to get three years of reduced rates out of a high-quality player before Boras takes him elsewhere, and every team in baseball would love to have him.

#27 – Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles

Like Price, he’s not yet what he could be, but he’s shown signs of getting there, and the leap may not be that far away. His stuff is legitimately top shelf, and as a 22-year-old lefty, few arms in the game were anywhere near where he is at this age. The command is still a bit of a concern, however, as is his ability to keep right-handers off base, but even with those issues, he’s a terrific arm. If he gets them straightened out, he’ll be among the game’s best. The Dodgers control his rights for four more years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to buy out his arbitration years before he started earning any real money.

#26 – Brian McCann, C, Atlanta

Yet another catcher with some power, McCann is probably the most polished of the young slugging backstops. He doesn’t make quite as much contact as he did a few years ago, but the walks are up and the power hasn’t gone anywhere. He is, clearly, one of the elite catchers in baseball, and at 26, he should remain a quality player through the remainder of his ridiculous contract. There are three years remaining on his deal, and he’ll earn just over $27 million during that time, less than half of what he’s actually worth. He’s the foundation of the Braves roster, and quite a piece to build around.



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Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

87 Responses to “2010 Trade Value: #30 – #26”

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  1. chadam says:

    Did McCann drop 20 spots (from being #6 on last year’s list) because there is one year less on his team-friendly contract? He’s headed for a 5-win season, mainly due to a very nice jump in BB% (9.0 over career, 8.9 in 2009, 13.8 in 2010). I’m surprised he dropped this far.

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    • Paul says:

      Might not be all him, think about how many could be new to the list that leapfrogged him.

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      • Chadam says:

        That’s what I’m thinking: a lot of these young guys with 5 years of team control (Santana, Heyward, Strasburg, Rasmus) have moved ahead of him. Can’t argue with that, by the way.

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    • Alex says:

      One less year of team control, the contract isn’t as cheap as it was, and his numbers are still down from their peak in 2006 and 2008 so its less likely he gets back to that level.

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      • Chris says:

        McCann has been dealing with some vision issues due to lasik surgery and eye dryness for parts of the last 09 and 10, but they seem to have been fixed. I’m not completely convinced he can’t reach his peak numbers again.

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  2. BrianA says:

    Wonder if Kinsler’s power numbers were better if he would rank higher on the list?

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    • Chris says:

      replace “power” with “defense”. he’s too high as it is, for me.

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      • Adam D says:

        really? his 10.1 UZR last year wasn’t good enough for you? he was only beat out by Utley and Polanco, but his defense could be “better”.

        oh, and he’s on pace for an even better defensive year this year (11.0 UZR/150), but with lower totals because of missed injury time.

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      • Alex says:

        He’s not really on pace for a better defensive year. He’s only at 2.8 runs in 64 games. The fact that his UZR/150 is so high is a quirk of how they calculate it I guess.

        He’s also still been below average over the course of his career, but it does indeed appear that he has improved himself to the above-average to good range now.

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      • Ray says:

        He only has 44 Defensive Games played despite 62 games worth of innings…which should come out to a 9.5 UZR/150, so yeah, that’s quirky. Pace shouldn’t be applied to UZR anyway.

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      • Alex says:

        How do they calculate defensive games played? I was just looking at games and innings at the position. I’ve never quite understood how they calculate UZR/150.

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      • Ray says:

        “The number of outs made by an average fielder at his position given the exact distribution of balls in play for that player divided by the number of outs an average player at that position makes per game.”

        Basically he’s only had 44 games worth of balls hit toward him. Defensive Games used to be listed with the rest of the fielding stats until that section expanded and pushed it to the bottom of the splits page, but then only for the current season.

        For large enough samples you should be fine using strictly innings more often than not, though extreme (at both ends) strikeout and/or groundball pitching staffs can skew that.

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    • Adam D says:

      As a Rangers fan, I’m actually ok with Kinsler not hitting with as much power. He doesn’t have that extreme uppercut swing he had last year, and he’s much less frustrating to watch at the plate than he was last year.

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  3. Phillies Red says:

    Of course, Choo’s value goes in the tank if he leaves to fight in his countries military.

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    • Dwight S. says:

      I was actually about to bring that up. I take it that this doesn’t bring that into consideration at all?

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      • Dealer A says:

        You have to think the possibility of military service greatly hurts his value. He really should be low on the list.

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      • Omar says:

        I’m pretty sure he has already gotten a deferment or defected…either way it’s a non issue.

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      • JH says:

        I’m pretty sure the United States doesn’t grant political asylum from South Korea for baseball players, so “defecting” wouldn’t really work.

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    • RPS says:

      My admittedly semi-informed understanding is that Koreans that are successful in fame-giving industries (sports, music, movies, etc.), especially overseas, have their military service deferred until their career ends. Even at that point, their service will be limited to appearing in commercials and other advertising for more specialized/longer term military units and other related government organizations. With the time off, it’s actually pretty possible he’s performing aspects of his service right now. There is almost no chance that his career will be interrupted by military service requirements.

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  4. Ivdown says:

    I was honestly hoping to see Kershaw get some actual respect on this list and be somewhere in the top 15 where he should really be…but I still find myself asking why the hell do people not get how good Kershaw is.

    22 years old
    Best k rate in baseball in 2010
    Best h/9 inning in baseball last year, 2nd best this year.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hits_per_nine_leagues.shtml
    He’s got his walk rate down to 4 BB/9 inning…but it doesn’t really matter anyway, he just isn’t good enough to be considered an ace or whatever the hell else.

    I know, I know, he doesn’t go deep enough into games, blah blah blah. 112 innings in 18 starts is over 6 innings a start, btw. He’s not Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay, but the fact the he’s 22 and has built up his innings each of the last 3 years should tell you…uhh…he’s only 22 with 4 years left of team control and he’s only getting better, so why wouldn’t he be able to go deeper into games?

    I guess the one thing I can say is that at least you didn’t knock him down the list from last year, I almost expect that type of thing now.

    I’m just waiting for Smoak to be top 20 now, lol.

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    • Ivdown says:

      Actually I’m not sure where his h/9 is this year, but he’s got the 4th best Opponent batting average right now in all of baseball.

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    • Chadam says:

      Probably because over almost 400 IP in the majors his walk rate is 4.4/9. While it’s improved very slightly, his control is still an issue, and that hurts him in two ways since it runs up his pitch counts. 6 IP/game isn’t all that great. His GB% is also nothing special (40% in 2010, 42% for his career).

      Yes, he’s 22, but that doesn’t mean we can’t automatically assume that he’s going to fix all of these issues.

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    • Alex says:

      Seriously??? He’s going to be one of the top couple pitchers on the list. Young pitchers are inherently risky, which holds down their value in something like this. If you thinking he’d be top 15 you were hoping for too much. I think only 3 pitchers finished that high last year.

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      • Ivdown says:

        I realize there will be more position players than pitchers on this list, especially the high part, but I still believe Kershaw shouldn’t have been lower than 20th on this list.

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      • Alex says:

        Why? He’s a young pitcher with great stuff, but he still hasn’t handled a full starters workload, he still has issues with walks and fly balls, and he’s still a risk. Honestly, I’d probably take 5 years of Price over 4 of Kershaw.

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      • Ivdown says:

        He pitched a full season last year and hasn’t missed a start this season…so how is that not a full work load, exactly? He also doesn’t have a problem with outfield flies, many of his fly balls are actually infield flies.

        That’s your preference and it’s fine, Kershaw is just already better than Price and 2 years younger.

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      • Alex says:

        He barely threw over 170 innings last year. I’d like to see him show he can get to 190-200 and come back fine the next year. Not that I doubt he can, but its something I’d like to see before I put him in the top 15 to 20 range. This year he likely will.

        While Kershaw does get more IFFB (13.9% this year) than average, his FB rate is still quite high. The vast majority of them (86.1%) are to the outfield. Its not that its a problem, but its something to keep an eye. Without a larger sample size we can’t be sure he can limit HR as much as he has with the current FB rate.

        As for Kershaw being better, maybe a bit, but the difference is cut down by the difference in leagues. Price has been quite good. As for the age thing, that means nothing to me. Pitchers aren’t like hitters where they tend to get better until they peak in their late 20′s. Pitching development in non-linear, and as a group, all ages tend to get worse.

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      • Ivdown says:

        You do make good points Alex. In his MLB career, Kershaw has a 6.5 HR/FB ratio. Over the last 3 calendar years, Kershaw is 4th in starters with at least 200 innings pitched in that category, behind Lee, Lincecum, and Hanson. He isn’t just limiting HRs only this year, for the majority of his MLB career he’s been able to limit HRs.

        Kershaw also allowed 9 HR in 220 minor league innings as well.

        He’s got a shot at over 200 innings this year, and it shouldn’t be too hard for him to make that. Is that the point where people will say he’s more valuable? I’m just wondering what the reasoning for some people is.

        Even though pitchers are different than hitters, someone at 22 is still more valuable than someone at 24 because they have the potential for more years in the league. Plus what does it tell you that Kershaw is already hitting his stride at 22 when many of the top pitchers in the league weren’t as good till their mid 20s?

        I just think Kershaw gets shortchanged.

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      • Alex says:

        The fact that he has the potential for more years in the big leagues is meaningless, because he’s only under team control for the next 4 of them.

        Pitchers simply follow different development paths than hitters. The fact that he’s better at a younger age simply tells me that he has hit his stride far earlier than most. It doesn’t mean he’s more likely to improve (at least in any sort of significant way) and it actually makes him more likely to get injured.

        Age is just completely overrated for pitchers. Give me a 30 year old pitcher with the numbers and contract of Kershaw and a pedigree of throwing 200 innings a year without an injury history and I’ll take him over Kershaw in a heartbeat.

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      • Alex says:

        And there’s nothing wrong with thinking Kershaw is getting shortchanged. Its the nature of being a fan. Just don’t get too worked up about it (not that you have been so far), because in the end it doesn’t matter what people think, just what happens on the field.

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      • Ivdown says:

        I’ve heard about the age stuff you are talking about, and I don’t deny it at all, but IF he doesn’t flame out and IF the Dodgers extend him after 4 years from now, the age is certainly a great factor in his favor. I agree any pitcher could go out there tomorrow and blow out their arm, but all pitchers have that going against them, not just Kershaw. The same can be said for any pitcher just getting worse at any age. I don’t have any science to back this up, but I’d have to imagine that a 22 year old has less of a chance to start getting worse than a late 20s pitcher.

        Either way, it really doesn’t matter what Dave Cameron thinks of Kershaw, I really don’t think he has an actual clue on how good he really is. All that matters is Kershaw kicks ass and I’m glad he’s a Dodger :)

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      • Alex says:

        Nah, a pitcher that’s established themselves as being able to handle a 200+ inning workload without injury is less likely to get worse than a 22 year old without that record. The fact that they’ve gone that far without injury tells us they’re far less likely to be injured, and injury is what generally causes pitchers to get worse.

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    • KG says:

      Let’s throw Price into the NL West and Kershaw into the AL East and see who’s better. Bet you Kershaw would get killed by Boston and NY, two of the most patient offenses in the league.

      He’s good, but until he starts throwing more strikes and handling RHB better, he’s going to have a limited ceiling. I hope he does, because he is something special. But you never know. To be honest, I’d rather have Price at this point, as well.

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      • Ivdown says:

        Kershaw really got killed by the Yankees 3 weeks ago, didn’t he? Ohhhh, actually he didn’t, that’s right. 7 innings 2 runs (2 run arod 1-2 count hr) 5 ks no walks and had the game blown for him by Broxton.

        Way to be wrong, though.

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  5. Brian says:

    Ivdown, first let me say that I really like Kershaw (on my fantasy keeper team). But I would would compare him to Scott Kazmir, who was another young lefty who has never been able to get over that hump of pitching deep into games. If a player goes an average of 7, that right there hands the game off to a set-up guy and then closer. Only going 6 innings on average every time out can really expose a bullpen.

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    • Ivdown says:

      People act as though he goes out there 5 innings every time and leaves after 110 pitches. Since the start of May he’s averaging just under 7 innings a start.

      Since the worst start of his career here are his numbers:

      81.2 innings 57 hits 22 runs 20 earned 92 ks 26 bbs 4 hr 2.20 ERA .197/.267/.260

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=kershcl01&t=p&year=2010&share=3.20#60-71-sum:pitching_gamelogs

      Obviously you don’t just count a portion of the season, but that is how he has rebounded from the 1 1/3 inning start where he gave up 7 runs to the Brewers. These numbers are his last 12 starts, and the 3.5 K/BB ratio shows he is improving greatly in terms of control.

      I understand it would be great if he could go at least 7 every time, but, on average, he’s just under 7 innings in each of his last 12 starts. His last start he walked none, struck out 12, and had 97 pitches through 8 innings. He didn’t go out for the 9th because Torre wanted Broxton in.

      You act like being Kazmir early in Kazmir’s career is a bad thing, Kazmir was flat out dominant early on before his arm troubles. I know the innings thing has been a big reason why people have overlooked Kershaw, but with the stuff Kershaw has, and the fact that he is going deeper into games, Kershaw SHOULD be getting looked at more, though obviously it will more than him just pitching great to do that.

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      • Shannon says:

        Breaking an already small sample size into an even smaller sample size to make your point is not a compelling argument.

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      • batpig says:

        I would like to live in your world where being ranked as the 27th most valuable commodity in all of MLB is a sign of disrespect :-p

        I think that ranking’s pretty fair — he is great, but has his (minor) warts. He is almost certainly in the top 10 for pitchers on this list.

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      • Ivdown says:

        Shannon

        It’s his most recent 12 starts, showing PROGRESSION. Maybe I should have told you how his first 12 MLB starts went, because that really helps prove my point. My whole point is that his control is getting better, as well as other points of his game as well.

        Batpig

        Yeah I know I’m dumb for getting mad at something like that, I just feel like everyone should know how good this guy is :) I guess it all depends on how many pitchers are on this list the rest of the way. I’m just sure there will be at least a handful of hitters that I would most definitely take Kershaw over, lol.

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      • Tim says:

        My off the cuff guess as the remaining pitchers on the list…

        Strasburg
        Lincecum
        Johnson
        Jimenez
        Hernandez
        Greinke
        Haren
        Lester
        Wainwright

        Who of these would you rate ahead of Kershaw?

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      • Chadam says:

        Tim,

        I would replace Felix on your list with Liriano. Liriano has two years of arbitration left, while Felix has 4 years and $70 million. Felix doesn’t have the health issues, but you’re only paying Liriano $10 million for two years. Besides, if Verlander, who has 4 years / $73 million left only made it at #35, I can’t imagine Felix makes this list.

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      • Alex says:

        What? Hernandez is better than Verlander and is earning less over the next 4 years. Why in the world would you think Felix would rank lower?

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      • Chadam says:

        Alex,

        Because Verlander is at #35 and has basically the same contract.

        Felix/Verlander’s salaries the next four years:

        2011: 10 / 12.75
        2012: 18.5 / 20
        2013: 19.5 / 20
        2014: 20 / 20

        You’re telling me that Felix is at LEAST ten spots better while making basically the same money? He’s a durable, great young pitcher, and I agree he’s better than Verlander, but that contract is paying him only slightly below market value for four years (when you factor in a discount for the security of a guaranteed contract, as well as the inherent risk with paying a pitcher that much money).

        Unless half of the next 25 players are going to be pitchers (unlikely), then I can’t see where Felix will end up on this list because there has to be room for all of the good young hitters in the next 25 spots.

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      • Alex says:

        You just made the case for him being more valuable than Verlander, but you think he’ll end up outside of the top 50? Its not going to happen. He’s significantly better than Verlander and he’s earning less. He’ll probably be on the first 5 released tomorrow, but there is absolutely no doubt he’ll show up at some point.

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      • Chadam says:

        Alex,

        You’re right. I thought there would be more hitters with great contacts that would leave room for maybe 6 or 7 pitchers in the top 25. Since I didn’t see Felix beating out some of the other pitchers with awesome deals, I wasn’t understanding how he’d make this list.

        After going through a guess of who’s on the list, it looks like there will only be ~14 hitters in the top 25, so Felix should definitely have room. I can’t imagine he’s higher than 21, though.

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      • Ivdown says:

        Tim -

        There is a case for Kershaw over Wainwright (I’m not sure on his contract status, is he signed for any kind of good deal past FA?), Haren (it may be a huge park factor but he’s giving up a crap load of hits and HR, though he has a good contract), and possibly Felix.

        Wainwright – Could anyone shed some light on his contract situation for me? I don’t believe he is signed after FA, is that correct?

        Haren – He is allowing tons and tons of hits and lots of homeruns, though his park is a hitters haven. He’s still not having the year anyone expected. His contract is really nice, but he’s not putting up the numbers right now.

        Felix – Same age, WAYY more in price right now, and only .7 WAR better at this point in the season. Even if Felix ends up 1.5 wins better this season, Kershaw’s value will be so much higher because he will be so much cheaper. Felix should likely be just in front of Kershaw because of that contract, but I’m sure he will be just outside the top ten based on who is doing this list.

        Oh, also, Lincecum should be getting lower and lower on the list (which is weird, I know) because each year that passes his salary is going to climb higher and higher, and soon his value will be like that of Joe Mauer; still an incredibly great player, but making so much that they aren’t a value.

        So basically I would have Kershaw as the 7th pitcher on this list.

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      • Alex says:

        Wainwright is signed for 6.5 next year, along with club options for 2012 and 2013 at 9 and 12 million dollars.

        Part of the reason Hernandez deserves to be higher than Kershaw is his proven durability. He’s shown he can go 200+ year after year without any sort of arm trouble. It makes him far, far less risky. Sure the upside isn’t as high, but that’s not everything.

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      • KG says:

        I would actually argue that Felix’s upside is as good, if not better than Kershaw’s, and it seems he’s a lot closer to realizing it at this point in time.

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    • Alireza says:

      Kershaw is like 5″ taller and 30 pounds heavier than Kazmir with infinitely better mechanics. Bad comparison.

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  6. Dave, in the Choo part:

    “An thumb”

    Pretty sure it’s “a”. Unless you misspelled “anthem”, which I could understand.

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  7. Chadam says:

    Guess for the remaining pitchers? I’d say, from highest to lowest:

    (years left after 2010/total dollars left, team option 1 if available, team option 2…)

    Ubaldo (1 yr/3, 4, 6, 8) – what a contract, he’s got to be the #1 pitcher
    Strasburg (2 yrs/5.5)
    Lester (3 yrs/25, 12, 13)
    Wainwright (1 yr/7, 9, 12)
    J Johnson (3/35)
    Greinke (3/34)
    Liriano (2/Arbitration Year 2 + Arbitration Year 3)
    Haren (3/37, 15)
    Lincecum (1/11)

    And possibly Cain (2/23), though I doubt it. That leaves 9, possibly 10, arms ahead of Kershaw. Sounds about right.

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    • Chadam says:

      To clarify, Liriano is making 1.6 this year, so you’re looking at a max of 2/10 for him…he should probably move ahead of everybody except Jiminez and Strasburg and be the #3 pitcher on this list.

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      • Tim says:

        dude, you’re high…

        Liriano is not on the list.

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      • Alex says:

        I was thinking the same thing. Major arm injury, never throw over 140 innings, first (half) season back as a great pitcher, and only two more years of team control? That doesn’t scream out top 25 most valuable trade chips in baseball to me

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      • Bill says:

        I would say there’s no way Liriano makes this list… too much of an injury risk. Ubaldo, Strasburg, Lester, J. Johnson, Greinke, Haren, and Wainwright are probably locks. Not sure about Lincecum honestly, he has a favorable contract for 2011 only, and basically everybody considers him an injury risk (whether that’s valid or not).

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    • philosofool says:

      Wait, Strasburg remains under club control after 2012, the Nats just agreed to pay out his signing bonus in several installments over that time, right? I mean, you can’t negotiate for a shorter time to free agency (can you), otherwise, wouldn’t all Boras clients agree to small signing bonuses in exchange for reduced time to FA?

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      • Chadam says:

        Wow, you’re totally right, I read Cot’s wrong. Looks like the Nationals have him for 5 years…and yea, I’m guessing he’ll be the top pitcher on the list.

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  8. batpig says:

    wrt Kershaw…. I think it’s also important to emphasize the excellent point made above:

    “As for the age thing, that means nothing to me. Pitchers aren’t like hitters where they tend to get better until they peak in their late 20?s. Pitching development in non-linear, and as a group, all ages tend to get worse.”

    being younger is a much stronger factor for HITTERS. If you are comparing a 22-year-old hitter holding his own in the majors, vs someone doing it at age 24-25, that is a big deal. But not so much for pitchers… many young stud pitchers actually peak early and are at their best in their early career. Kazmir, Peavy, Beckett, Prior, Wood, Mulder, Zito being some obvious recent examples off the top of my head. An injury here or there, you lose a couple mph off the fastball, the slider isn’t so snappy any more… things happen with pitchers. You can’t point to that mid/late 20′s peak as with hitters.

    That is certainly not a point in favor of Kershaw over Price, for example. In fact, on the contrary, in many respects you’d rather have the 25-year-old pitcher over the 22-year-old, if only that injury risk is likely lower.

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    • vivaelpujols says:

      Why would injury risk be lower for a 25 year old than a 22 year old? The 25 year old is going to have more pitches on his arm.

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      • Alex says:

        Because the 25 year old already threw all those pitches without getting injured. It gives us more data that points to him not being as likely to breakdown. The same thing doesn’t exist for the 22 year old, so we can’t make as accurate of a prediction. Basically, the longer you go without getting injured the less likely it becomes.

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      • vivaelpujols says:

        Okay, but that’s just conjecture right? I mean the opposite could easily be true as well. What are you basing your viewpoint on?

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      • Alex says:

        Mainly the idea of the injury nexus. Smarter people than me have done research, and that’s what I understand them to have found.

        I also didn’t bring it down to the 22 to 25 year old comparison. I tried to hedge my bets more than that going with a guy maybe 28-30. I still firmly believe that someone who built up to 200 innings properly and has maintained that workload for multiple seasons is less likely to get injured than someone who is doing it for the first time. It just intuitively makes sense and I believe the numbers back it up.

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      • vivaelpujols says:

        Can you point me towards that research?

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      • Alex says:

        Don’t know where to find it. That’s just what I’ve gathered from reading some of James stuff and what other people have written about it over the years. Wish I could be more help.

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      • batpig says:

        google “Injury Nexus”, it’s the first hit. It’s not conjecture. BP did the research years ago, with Nate Silver providing the stats and Will Carroll the injury.

        while Alex’s explanation is right on, it’s more than just the “we have more data” idea. There is a physiological/biomechanical foundation, as human males are still developing physically in their late teens / early twenties. Plus of course there’s some intrinsic self-selection going on… by their mid-twenties pitchers will have accumulated a lot of innings of professional baseball, and the ones who don’t have the ability to stay healthy will have already left through attrition.

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  9. O.J. Simpson says:

    Felix is better than Verlander because his pitches in Seattle.

    That’s why

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    • Alex says:

      Right, because clearly its the home park that has allowed Felix to post a similar strikeout rate, a slightly better BB rate, and a much better GB rate

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      • O.J. Simpson says:

        and that he pitches for the Mariners

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      • Alex says:

        How has pitching for the Mariners allowed him to post better numbers in categories that are completely controlled by himself and the hitter?

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      • Alex says:

        Why do you say that?

        Shouldn’t feed the trolls?

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      • Gio says:

        Safeco inflates strikeout rates while Comerica is more neutral. About the same for walks, but to a lesser extent. Slightly more groundballs in Comerica.

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      • Alex says:

        I don’t necessarily buy park factors for things like that. Just seems like over-analyzing things.

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      • Ray says:

        I don’t pay normally pay much attention to K/BB and batted ball park factors, but for what it’s worth raw strikeout and walk totals were 7.7% and 5.6% higher, respectively, for Mariner home games than for road games between 2000 and 2009 in what amounts to over 60,000 plate appearances in each sample. StatCorner.com has Safeco’s strikeout factor at around 107 and walk factor at around 104-105, about what I noted.

        That’s a pretty huge sample, so taking that at face value, I don’t have any really good explanation for what would make a park’s batter’s eye (or climate) increase both strikeouts and walks to that extent or what would cause huge platoon splits as seen in Texas’s ballpark: a 102 K factor and 94 BB factor for lefties but a 96 K factor and 105 BB factor for righties.

        But yeah, that might have been a reference to Dave’s alleged Mariner bias.

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  10. that guy says:

    because you don’t mess with #6org, that’s why.

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  11. Justin Mosovsky says:

    I don’t want to get hated on for it, but Alex needs to learn more about Dave and #6 org:)

    Really, Felix will be put higher than he should be, and a lot of people will complain, but it doesn’t matter cause he probably could be #50-45 and no one would care, so it’s not ,like he is a gross error bumping off a more worthy candidate. I’m a big McCutchen fan, but I know he likely won’t be on the list, so just live with the fact that Dave is not objective. He seems to be liked enough for his analysis that his flaws can be lovingly noted.

    Org #6:)

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    • Alex says:

      Oh I know all about Dave and the #6 org. I voiced my displeasure with it as loud as anyone else at the time. I just don’t see what it has to do with Felix’s ranking. I guess this could be a little high for Felix, but he clearly deserves to be ahead of Verlander who came in at #35 so I don’t see a huge inconsistency there.

      I wouldn’t worry about McCutchen either. I’m assuming his name will come up at some point tomorrow. Then again I still trust Dave to a certain extent, as I think he just let himself get carried away with Seattle in the organizational rankings. We all make mistakes.

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  12. tristolio says:

    Its cause felix is the shit. And he is better than Verlander. And he is a horse. And he is the king. And he hit a grand slam off Johan Santana. Case closed.

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  13. Matt says:

    Honestly, I’m missing the point of this series of articles. None of these guys are going to be traded any time soon, barring some huge blockbuster deal.

    It would be much more valuable if the pieces were dedicated to players who are at least PERCEIVED to be available.

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    • Ray says:

      That’s precisely the point. It would take a blockbuster to move these guys.

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    • batpig says:

      it’s a theoretical discussion. people like making lists, baseball dorks especially so. deal with it!

      there is plenty of baseball coverage about trade rumors for players who will actually be available. this is not for that…

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  14. Jake says:

    I’m a rangers fan, and I don’t see how in the world you ranked kinsler ahead of andrus on this list?? I take Elvis all day over Ian, granted their both great to have.

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    • batpig says:

      Elvis may be cheaper and younger, but Kinsler is BETTER. Elvis is a defensive whiz with tons of speed, but bottom line is he’s a 700 OPS hitter.

      Kinsler, on the other hand, is an offensive force relative to his position. That is why he is more valuable…

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  15. Buster Posey says:

    Hey Kershaw lover, you of you and your SSS love… Toss today’s start into your “progress report.” Suck it.

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    • Ivdown says:

      12 starts in a season is more than 1/3 of a starters season, 1 start is 1/32. Bit of a huge gap there, no?

      Giants fans…

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  16. Bill Bavasi says:

    I look forward to seeing Ben Broussard in the top 10!

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