2011 Giants: Lowest-Scoring Contender Ever?
The San Francisco Giants have been in a a funk lately, turning a half-game lead in the division on August 9 to a three and a half game deficit in a mere seven days. Their pitching hasn’t been bad, but at some point the sheer lack of offense was bound to catch up with them. On Monday, Scott Miller of CBS Sports tweeted that no team had made the playoffs averaging fewer than four runs scored per game since the 1988 Dodgers.
At the time, the Giants were averaging 3.43 runs per contest. While they were looking up at the Diamondbacks in the standings and not technically in the playoffs, Miller’s point remained valid. If they climb back atop the division, the Giants could conceivably become one of the lowest scoring teams in history to make the playoffs if their offensive struggles persist. But would they be the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs?
For starters, standard runs per game averages cannot be used to tell this tale. The run scoring environment is different from league to league and year to year. Averaging 3.43 runs per game when the league scores 4.15 runs means something different than it does when the league scores 3.75 runs. To gauge where the Giants would rank in this regard, a runs scored average normalized for the league and year paints a more accurate picture of how good or bad a team is at plating runners than raw numbers sans context.
Another step would be to factor in the run environment of the respective home parks, since some suppress scoring more than others. But consider this more of a back-of-the-envelope first look at what will eventually be a more comprehensive study on the topic.
With that in mind, I calculated the runs per game for each team in every year and repeated the process for each overall league in every season from 1901-onward. After that, the two averages were compared as a percentage of one another, as opposed to subtracting the team mark from that of the league. I bring that up only because I covered this same topic for ESPN in September 2009, coincidentally looking at how the Giants squad that year was on pace to become the lowest-scoring playoff team. In that article, the team average was subtracted from the league average. Maybe it’s splitting hairs, but I’m more comfortable using an RPG+ type of stat.
Since 1901, and excluding strike-shortened seasons, here are the eight lowest-scoring playoff teams using a normalized runs per game average:
1) 1973 Mets: 3.78 RPG, 4.15 RPG-LG, 91.0 RPG+
2) 1966 Dodgers: 3.74 RPG, 4.09 RPG-LG, 91.4 RPG+
3) 1996 Dodgers: 4.34 RPG, 4.68 RPG-LG, 92.6 RPG+
4) 1965 Dodgers: 3.75 RPG, 4.03 RPG-LG, 93.1 RPG+
5) 1985 Royals: 4.24 RPG, 4.56 RPG-LG, 93.1 RPG+
6) 2007 Diamondbacks: 4.39 RPG, 4.71 RPG-LG, 93.4 RPG+
7) 1984 Royals: 4.15 RPG, 4.42 RPG-LG, 94.0 RPG+
8) 1991 Blue Jays: 4.22 RPG, 4.49 RPG-LG, 94.1 RPG+
The question then becomes: where would the Giants rank if they made the playoffs with their current runs per game average? The 2011 National League is scoring 4.15 runs per game on the whole, while the Giants are averaging 3.42 runs per game. That calculates out to an 82.5 RPG+, which would be by far the lowest adjusted scoring average for any team to make the playoffs.
A month and a half still remains in the season, but this data should show just how tough it is for poor offensive teams to qualify for the postseason. No team averaging fewer than four runs per game has made the playoffs since the 1988 Dodgers, but that team scored 3.88 runs in a senior circuit that averaged the same 3.88 runs. The scoring environment is greater this year in the NL, and the Giants are scoring runs at a substantially lower rate.
Odds are they won’t make the playoffs if they continue to be this inept offensively, but if they do they will be in some small company.
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Curiously, does this list change if you use OPS+ or RC+?
It’s tragic inside.
As a Giants fan, at times it feels like your falling back on hyperbole too often. You try to tell yourself that fans of all teams lament the inability to score a runner from third with less than two outs. Every fan gets mad at double plays and strikeouts resulting from chasing pitches out of the strike zone. You know the Giants offense is bad, but you figure that since you have a personal investment in the team, it probably feels worse than it is. I mean, the chances of being the worst ever at something are pretty low.
But then I keep reading things like this.
The Giants have had a runner on third with fewer than two outs? it sure doesn’t seem like it.
Well as of now, our two out of three of our best hitters are on the DL (Posey and Beltran), while the other one plays through his injury (Sandoval). Both of our best infielders are injured (Sanchez and Keppinger), though the later should at least return. Our outfield is just ridiculous as Beltran, Torres, Schierholtz, Burrell, and Rowand are all injured currently (Cody Ross is the only outfielder not injured), though hopefully they should start returning pretty soon as 3 out of the injuries aren’t even DL worthy. Thank God, the pitching front only seen our two most inconsistent starters (Sanchez who we’ll actually miss and Zito) fall to the injury bug, while our best reliever (Romo) is on the DL with his injury and our second best reliever (Wilson) is currently battling through his. I’m hoping it’ll be just like last year, with us getting hot in Sept as most of team comes back to play. As long as we’ve got three of the best arms in the game starting the majority of our games, and the NL ERA leader pitching in half of the other ones, we have more than a chance.
Every single game in September is against the NL West. There’s still time to win the division by 10 games….or lose it.
Ha ha, I bet you’re missing Eugenio Velez and Juan Uribe now! Cause if you are, please, by all means take them, we don’t want them either.
Surprised only 2/8 came in wild card era.
In 2011 the Giants can arguably claim the injury bug as a driver behind low scoring (unlike 2009). It’s incredible that they held the NL West division lead for as long as they did given the injuries to key players like Posey, Sandoval, Torres and FSanchez. Add injuries to less-key players like JSanchez, Casilla, Tejada, Zito, Rowand, and Burrell and the storyline of injury is well defended.
I know this isnt the point of the article, but since you compare 2009 vs 2011, its at the very least interesting to call out injury.
I forgot Beltran, so add him to the pile.
If Lincecaingarnersong, Schierholtz, and Pablito stay healthy (Nate and the Panda are both in the lineup tonight, so I’ll count them as healthy for now), and they get back all the important pieces that should come back (Beltran, Keppinger, Romo, Torres, and J Sanchez) by a reasonable date (say, september 1st-ish), then I think the Giants are still the clear favorite to win the west. Their recent slump has been driven mostly by injury, and the offense will pick back up if they can put their real lineup on the field again. With 6 head to head matchups remaining, the better team will win the division, and that is still the Gigantes.
No one made the playoffs before 1969. Some made a playoff, but that was part of the regular season.
In fact, wait, that’s still true.
not a giants fan, but they have had some bad luck with injury for sure. I would rather them than some other more arrogant teams, so I am sort of rooting for them.
Where is dr. b giants fan to tell us that the giants actually have a great offense and the Great Sabean is to be praised for his impeccable roster construction?
Very interesting article, and well written. I do love baseball history, and too often these types of studies have some inherent flaw that keeps old-timers from showing up. Using RPG+ is an example of the CORRECT way to incorporate history.
What I want to know is whether a team with a negative run differential has ever made the playoffs. That would be a feat, a feat that could only be accomplished by a Giants team that seemingly has won half of its games with magic.
The only two teams from the last decade with a negative run differential that made the playoffs were the ’07 Diamondbacks and the ’05 Padres. Also the Tigers are currently leading the Central with a -12 run differential.
I believe the Diamondbacks made the playoffs in 2007 with a negative run differential.
Indeed those ’07 DBacks did — 712 runs scored and 732 runs allowed for a -20 differential
I think the Giants have to hit almost 5 rpg in the last quarter of the season just to catch up to that Mets Rpg+ of 91…so even having an average offense the rest of the way home would be enough to set a record by some margin.
One factor still not being considered is the percentage difference between the league average and the currentl number. With lower numbers the actual difference between the two will be surpressed as there is less room to go down. Hence the percentage difference would be more important. VTU. Brad.
This IS the percentage difference, just expressed in the traditional Metric+ format.
thanks.