A Different League
Brandon League has always looked the role of a shutdown reliever. He throws a high-powered fastball that smacks the mitt with authority and had thrown a slider to complement the pitch. This year, however, League flashed a curveball and a change-up.
League began throwing the latter pitch more and more after using it a little more than a tenth of the time in April. Per Baseball Info Solutions Data, that figure rose to nearly 30% in May and continued moving up the charts. 36% in June was followed by 46% in July before sliding back down to 39.7% in August. League threw 30% change-ups in September and October, causing his usage curve to look a bit like a bell curve. The numbers are a bit skewed because of the pitch totals varying in totals; however, the pitch was an accurate assassin throughout.
Take his 11 appearances in August during which League threw 234 pitches (44 change-ups, 34 curves, 128 four-seam fastballs, and 14 sliders). Batters swung and missed on 32 of those pitches for a rate of 13.7%. On individual pitches, League saw 27% whiffs on his change, 32% on his curve, 21% on his slider, and only 4% on his fastballs. This is only 21% of League’s total pitches on the season, so small sample size does apply. Still, League’s seasonal numbers bare out improvement in provoking contact-less swings, as his 71% contact rate was a career low by more than 10 percentage points.
Most of League’s issues with the run average metrics come from a high home run rate. His fastball has the tendency to stay flat and crushed into the seats on a handful of occasions per season. He still possesses the upside you desire. Toronto doesn’t seem likely to ditch League (entering his second year of arbitration as a super-two member) but if some team can yank him away, they could be getting more than anticipated.
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Perhaps Toronto could find a role for him as closer next season. I don’t think anyone took it and sailed off with it after B.J. Ryan lost it.
Frasor was pretty good.
Every time League pitched in a close game for the Jays this past season, the fan base collectively held their breath. The guy doesn’t have the composure to be a top closer, even if he has the speed. I’m not sure if this is confirmation bias but it seemed like he blew a lot of his appearances, usually from the long ball. I don’t know the numbers here but it felt like he wasn’t good with inherited runners. He also has some control issues. I think he has the goods to deliver, but what he might need more than anything is a better pitching coach.
The perception that surrounds League is far worse than the reality. He’s one of the best bullpen arms around, the Jays are in no hurry to let him go anywhere.
It’s just sample size. He also dominated the Yankee lineup into extra innings, you conveniently ignored that. I’d sooner put him back in the rotation, he pitches like a starter and there is no reason to waste a arm like his on a position where an average reliever will convert over 80% of their chances.
Change up? I’m a little surprised. It always looked like more of a sinker to me, thus the ground balls.
League’s 2009 season was, outside the ill-timed home runs, excellent. His whiffs and Ks were way up, his walks way down. He’s poised to make a bunch of money if he finally avoids the high-leverage struggles.
Brandon League superfan #1a.
Looking at his Pitch F/X page, there isn’t a whole lot of certainty in those numbers. The offspeed categories seem all screwed up. First it says his slider and “curveball” are the same average speed of 85.7 mph, which would be slider speed.
What’s really screwy is the horizontal movement (HM). His slider has always been a “backup” slider, with negative HM. That “curveball” listed has a HM value closer to his changeup, which leads me to believe those are mostly changeups. I also wonder if those changeups are actually splitters, since there is so much less HM on those compared to his fastball.
Whatever his offspeed collection is, there is a lot of movement, mostly downward, and his high-end velocity should result in a productive career.
I said above I think it’s a sinker, when splitter is more appropriate. League is the kind of pitcher that pitch f/x seems to hate. His fastball moves so much, its hard to make a lot of sense.
It’s fastball/splitter, its always been like that. The difference is it becomes a 85 MPH curveball when thrown in to left-handers, and a change when thrown in to right-handers.
How about stretching him out one more time? I always get a vision of Chien-Meng Wang and his awesome ground ball tendencies. Getting 5-6 IPs/game out of League could be intriguing, though it didn’t go well the first time.
Don’t tell the fans on the Jay’s board that, they don’t understand this type of analysis and just call you stupid.
Even though he began his career as a minor’s starter and looked good doing it, but never got a chance up here…
Wow. Blanket statements FTW.
Sincerely,
An inept, dimwitted Jays Fan.
Aside: Check out BLeague’s peripherals the second time through the order. Not. Pretty.
Spooky…