A Fat Dose of the Good Speed
Jeremy Jeffress has one powerful arm. Unfortunately, he also allegedly has one powerful love of… ’90s Cypress Hill music, shall we say, which has resulted in more than one suspension from baseball and the Milwaukee Brewers. The right-hander was originally drafted 16th overall in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school.
Back from his latest suspension, Jeffress has started nine High-A ball games with mixed results. He is still touching the upper 90s with improved command and control (6.68 BB/9 in 2006, 4.59 in 2007, 3.40 in 2008), but consistency remains a work-in-progress. Here is the breakdown of his nine starts, including three bad performances and six good ones:
The Bad: 11.2 IP | 21 H | 06 BB | 22 K | 20 ER | 16.07 ERA The Good: 36.0 IP | 18 H | 12 BB | 43 K | 03 ER | 00.75 ERA
By those numbers above, it is clear that when Jeffress is on, he is on. That is a ridiculous split on the ERA. It is interesting, though, that Jeffress’ strikeout rate is actually better when he is struggling: 16.85 K/9, compared to 10.75 K/9 when he is pitching well. The control is less impressive when he struggles: 4.60 BB/9, compared to 3.00 BB/9, but it does not seem that extreme. Perhaps Jeffress is tipping pitches during his bad starts, which allows hitters to sit on a certain pitch. Even when you know what’s coming, it can be hard to hit a high-90s fastball, especially in A-ball.
One thing is for sure… If Jeffress can stay healthy and, more importantly at this point, on the straight-and-narrow, then the Brewers could have something very special.
Mark Runsvold said,
July 2, 2008 @ 7:29 pm
…*cough* sample size *cough*… Tipping his pitches? Based on 11.2 innings of work? How about bad luck combined with a little command trouble?
Eugene Letuchy said,
July 3, 2008 @ 6:59 am
“”"It is interesting, though, that Jeffress’ strikeout rate is actually better when he is struggling: 16.85 K/9, compared to 10.75 K/9 when he is pitching well. The control is less impressive when he struggles: 4.60 BB/9, compared to 3.00 BB/9, but it does not seem that extreme.”"”
This is a pretty common mistake. When comparing good vs bad performance by the same pitcher, innings pitched is not terribly helpful for calculating rate stats. For example, a “good” inning might involve 1 strikeout out of 3 batters faced and a “bad” inning might involve 3 strikeouts and 9 batters faced; K/9 is three times as high for the second performance, even though the pitcher strikes out a third of the batters he’s facing.
In this case, estimating batters faced as outs + hits + BB (so 35 + 21 + 6 = 62 for the *bad*, and 108 + 18 + 12 = 138), the strikeout rate is 35.48% for “bad” outings and 31.16% for the “good” ones (the difference is about two strikeouts’ worth). The walk rate is 9.67% for “bad” outings, and 8.70% for the “good” ones (that’s a fractional walk’s difference, i.e. insignificant).
With a sample size this small, I’d bet that the difference could be explained by luck on batted balls or even a single umpiring performance.