Comments on: A Minor Review of 2008: The Padres http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-minor-review-of-2008-the-padres/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: mymrbig http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-minor-review-of-2008-the-padres/#comment-51520 mymrbig Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:02:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-minor-review-of-2008-the-padres/#comment-51520 Bill James seems too bullish on Headley. Granted, Headley has had consistently high BABIP throughout the minors. But Bill James is predicting a BABIP of .369 for 2009, which is crazy high no matter how many line drives a guy hits (and Headley hits quite a few of them). His stats seem particularly bullish for a guy that will probably strike out more than 25% of the time. On the other hand, I feel better about Antonelli than most. His 14.4 BB% and 19.1 K% were both good enough. But his .251 BABIP is crazy low. Antonelli doesn't look like he hit a ton of line drives, but his BABIP should have been much higher, and better luck would have taken his triple slash line into the realm of respectibility. His power drop-off is a little concerning though. Bill James seems too bullish on Headley. Granted, Headley has had consistently high BABIP throughout the minors. But Bill James is predicting a BABIP of .369 for 2009, which is crazy high no matter how many line drives a guy hits (and Headley hits quite a few of them). His stats seem particularly bullish for a guy that will probably strike out more than 25% of the time.

On the other hand, I feel better about Antonelli than most. His 14.4 BB% and 19.1 K% were both good enough. But his .251 BABIP is crazy low. Antonelli doesn’t look like he hit a ton of line drives, but his BABIP should have been much higher, and better luck would have taken his triple slash line into the realm of respectibility. His power drop-off is a little concerning though.

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