Jake Fox had a successful “debut” in 2009 (Fox had previously accumulated 15 MLB PA’s with the Cubs in 2007). Though he certainly faded down the stretch, Fox none the less put up an above average .779 OPS with a quality .208 ISO in 241 PA’s with the Cubs in 2009. Between AAA and the majors last season, Fox jacked a ridiculous 28 HRs in under 450 PAs. His .433 ISO was a full 79 points ahead of the second highest ISO in the Pacific League amongst hitters with 150+ PAs. In short, Fox had his “breakout season.” However, like most Cubs prospects, Jake Fox is old; he turns 28 next year. Furthermore, his lack of defense makes him a difficult guy to play on the diamond. 1B and 3B are blocked by A-Ram and D-Lee, while the corners in the outfielder are manned by Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. If Milton Bradley isn’t traded (which he shouldn’t be because he was bit by a lot of bad luck last season and he is poor enough a player on or off the field to be worth the $15M salary dump it would require to move him), that leaves no room for Fox besides the bench. Thus the question beckons: is Jake a trade chip at the “peak” of his value or does he have a valuable role in the future of the team?

Unlike the “breakout” performance of Micah Hoffpauir, who overperformed in 2008, Jake Fox underperformed in 2009. Despite a lackluster walk rate (6.1% in 2009, 9.1% MLB average) and eyebrow raising .311 OBP, there are plenty of reasons to trust in Jake Fox. The .285 BABIP and .319 xBABIP/.302 MLB avg BABIP disparity shows that Jake Fox, who posted a .332 wOBA in 2009, has some room to improve in 2010. As someone who posts league average strikeout rates, has improving walk rates in the minors, and has posted an ISO above .250 each season in the minors since being promoted to AAA in 2007, Bill James is profiling Jake Fox as a .284/.339/.546 (.885 OPS) hitter next season. The average MLB first baseman, by contrase, hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009.

With Derek Lee, who is in the final year of his contract, turning 35 and getting paid $13M next season, Milton Bradley could provide the Cubs with the kind of payroll flexibility they would need to stay competitive in 2011 and 2012. With the burdensome contracts of Soriano, Big Z, Fukudome and Milton Bradley guaranteed and Aramis Ramirez’s $16M 2012 option on the books, the Cubs do not have much breathing room in terms of adding “the necessary guys.” A guy like Jake Fox, who can competently replace Derek Lee’s offense in 2011 and 2012 (assuming he doesn’t get slapped with super two status), would give the Cubs $13 to spend on gapping holes (aka, relief pitching). Rather than trading away guys for prospects and hoping the Cubs can build as good of a team as they currently have while rebuilding for the future, the Cubs have the potential to stay strong for the next few years.

Quality players who do not cost a lot are slim pickings for the Cubs, who haven’t exactly had the best of drafts since 2001. Fox is a breath of fresh air. Especially since power is overpriced.