A Notes Post
With no one subject grabbing me as worthy of a whole post, but a lot of minor interesting news items floating around today, let’s do a brief overview of those topics.
Royals extend Dayton Moore through 2014.
This is just a bizarre decision. Moore should have been closer to losing his job than getting more security, given some of the decisions he’s made over the last few years and how poor the Royals are yet again. A significant handful of his decisions are utterly indefensible – the Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth signings along with the trades for Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourt have been well covered, but quite simply, a GM should not get free passes for making four terrible decisions that close together. Especially given the Royals budget constraints, Moore simply couldn’t afford to waste the money he had available, yet he did.
You don’t have to be a total stathead to be a good GM, but Moore has done nothing to prove that he’s good enough at traditional player evaluation to also be ignorant of the statistical tools available that he’s actively ignoring. That the Royals willingly signed up for more of his management style should be enough to cause Kansas City fans to weep.
Giants signed Brad Penny.
Smart choice – he not only lands in the DH-free National League, but he also picks a team with quality defenders behind him as he looks to impress down the stretch before hitting free agency. The results for any pitcher can vary significantly over a month, so there’s no guarantee that Penny will turn his season around instantly, but given what we know about the difference in quality among the leagues and Penny’s decent performance in the AL East, it looks pretty likely that the Giants added a pretty good arm for the stretch drive.
Jarrod Washburn got torched again.
I actually feel bad for Tigers fans. I’ve seen Bad Jarrod Washburn pitch, and it’s not fun. That he’s been this bad since ending up in Detroit is pretty surprising, as we’re long past the point of this being regression to the mean. Right now, Washburn is regressing to Dontrelle Willis‘ mean. Coupled with the out-of-nowhere Barry Zito career renaissance, 2009 is shaping up to be a reminder that pitchers are just not to be counted on. What they did last year, last month, or even last week won’t necessarily manifest today. They’re the flakiest creatures in sports. Relying on a starting pitcher is like putting all of your money on a tech stock. Smart investors diversify – smart teams spend money on hitters.
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While Washburn obviously isn’t as bad as he’s been in Detroit, but a huge regression isn’t really surprising. He just wasn’t going to maintain a BABIP that was below .250 while going from the Mariners defense to the Tigers’.
His BABIP has actually been lower in Detroit thus far. It looks like the main culprit has been a ridiculous number of balls leaving the park (9 in 31 IP).
Speaking of which, I know there is now general agreement that pitchers don’t really control HR/FB. Might there be an exception for soft-tossers that, as Washburn appears to be doing now, sometimes throw batting practice during games?
“I know there is now general agreement that pitchers don’t really control HR/FB”
I agree that this thought has become popular, but I don’t agree with it.
While a season’s worth of K/BB results are quite meaningful and a season’s worth of BABIP results are, uh, not, HR/FB falls in between (gasp, we have to deal with something that’s no an absolute!?) HR/FB is both a skill and highly variable.* So while you shouldn’t think that a 5% HR/FB ratio is a true talent level, you also shouldn’t assume that pitcher’s true talent is 11% (about the league average). Over a full season, it might be that you should regress that 5% half the way to 11% (or whatever, I’m pulling the “half way” out of my ear.)
* K, BB, and BABIP season rates are actually also a mix of skill and variation. It’s just that the mix is reasonably close to 0% (for K and BB) or 100% (for BABIP) that we tend to ignore this fact. That’s fine as a shortcut, as long as we keep the knowledge in the back of our heads.
“regressing to Dontrelle Willis’ mean”? that just sounds kinda dirty
Funny thing, Comerica Park is even more pitcher-friendly than Safeco Field, and the Tigers have a pretty good outfield defense. Just imagine Washburn pitching for the Yanks in that stadium.
That’s interesting about his BABIP – I really made an assumption that his current number was higher than where it was previously. But I guess Washburn deserved the bombs, too. Hell, he had to regress somewhere.
There may not be a statistical explanation for this, especially given the SSS. We all expected regression from Washburn, but Im not sure that’s what we’re seeing. We may just be seeing a guy not executing and not making pitches. That is to say, the difference between Seattle Washburn and Detroit Washburn doesnt appear luck or environment based – it may just be scouting based.
I believe Comerica might be overall more friendly to hitters than Safeco. However, Safeco is actually fairly friendly to left handed hitters; and it’s murder to right handed power. That makes it the perfect park for someone like Washburn who’s a left handed fly ball pitcher.
Are you kidding? Moore’s been great! Just look at Mike Jacobs. He got a 30-HR hitter for a middle reliever. Anyone who doesn’t think that was a great move is a freakin idiot!!!!
God that was a terrible thread.
Yeah, where are all those “Kansas City is going to challenge for the AL Central pennant this year, might even be the team to beat, just you wait and see” people these days?
Are you serious? I’m honestly not sure. Either way, Mike Jacobs is currently rocking a .231/.301/.412 line, and is on pace for about 22 home runs. Leo Nunez has a WHIP of 1.186, which is would be good enough to place him third among Royals pitchers, had they bothered to keep him. Also, he’s younger than both Jacobs and everyone else in the Royals bullpen not named Joakim Soria.
I wasn’t serious. If you want a good laugh at the expense of Dave’s sanity, take a look at the Mike Jacobs thread and check out the venomous, rabid ankle-biters calling Dave an idiot for saying Jacobs was a replacement level player.
Washburn’s been beyond bad, but there is some luck there (HR/FB ratio is absurdly bad right now). That doesn’t explain it all, though. Too bad no Tigers bloggers saw this coming, except me (even though that sounds incredibly self-indulgent, click my name for the original piece the day he was dealt). I just didn’t like the trade from the get-go.
I had no problem with the Washburn trade… I knew he would regress but not this much… But for Luke French??? He is a bum… The other kid might be good one day, but if Washburn didnt suck so bad latley and had provided the tigers with one or 2 wins that French wouldnt have causing the Tigers to make it to October the trade would have been a huge success…. Even sucking like he has, he still might give us one or 2 more win than French would have…
Sorry, I don’t know any other way of saying this. ‘Smart investors diversify – smart teams spend money on hitters’ is just simply a retahded statement.
Smart teams shouldn’t spend money on pitchers?
It’s not the same as diversifying I suppose, but I don’t believe the analogy is so poor that you’d call it “retahded.”
It was that poor a statement, imo. You don’t win w/o pitching, and quality starters do not grow on trees. If I were a GM (not that any owner would be that looney), I would actually do the opposite of what Dave would – spend money on pitching, let every thing else work itself out.
“Sorry, I don’t know any other way of saying this.”
Here’s a hint: actually explain why you think the statement is “retahded”.
I agree. I’ve noticed the recent fad for the word “retarded” (and it is a fad) is strongest among the intellectually lazy. Not saying you are that in general, Dirty Water, but the comment certainly is: It amounts to nothing more than saying ‘I disagree” (in somewhat insulting fashion) without spending any effort articulating the nature of your disagreement.. If you’re going to engage in dialog, you need a counter-thesis. Your follow-up comment was much better.
Getting back to the point: yes, the analogy with stocks is not an especially good one so building arguments atop such a shaky foundation is unlikely to get us anywhere. However, there’s an explanation for that: Dave is indulging himself in what amounts to an inside joke that’s going to be missed by most folks outside the Marinerverse. During the build-up to the trade deadline the local Seattle ESPN-talk radio station had Dave on to talk about the rumors of a Washburn trade. The talk jocks were unconvinced that Washburn’s performance to that point was unsustainable or that trading Washburn was a good idea; Dave was strongly in favor of it and underlined his point with the memorable line “Jarod Washburn is Pets.com at $140. Sell! Sell!”
Ok, gotcha. I was unaware the analogy had a history.
But I still disagree with his overall message. And the MFY probably do, as well.
I agree with Dave’s point, and Dave or others are welcome to correct me, but in response Dirty Water, I think Dave would argue that FA dollars should be spent on hitting and that you want your pitching to be almost entirely cost-controlled 0-6 players if possible, due to the nature of pitcher performance being flukier, and due to the greater liklihood of pitchers getting hurt.
To your point, Dirty Water, of course you are right that it is important to have great pitching…but Dave is implying, correctly in my opinion, that if you had to choose between young cost-controlled pitching, and young cost-controlled hitting, you pick pitching EVERY time.
Some reasons why:
*Pitchers get hurt more often.
*Pitchers have more variable performance year-to-year, because luck and defense influence their results more than they do for hitters.
*The defensive revolution has made it easier to buy FA hitters who can still hit, but struggle in the field (Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, etc.). There is no such corollary for pitchers; basically, the good ones in FA simply get paid (Sabathia/Burnett), and rarely do good ones even reach FA while they are still healthy and good.
..basically, the good ones in FA simply get paid (Sabathia/Burnett), and rarely do good ones even reach FA while they are still healthy and good.
Well, that’s exactly my point, that they’re so valuable they should always be primary targets of a payroll, worth far more than the difference between league average and, say, Jim Thome! (OPS+ 123)
“Jarod Washburn is Pets.com at $140. Sell! Sell!”
BUT THE $140 YOU GOT FROM THE TIGERS WAS IN MONOPOLY MONEY…
“Well, that’s exactly my point, that they’re so valuable they should always be primary targets of a payroll, worth far more than the difference between league average and, say, Jim Thome! (OPS+ 123)”
I might agree with you if salary level could somehow be divorced from contract length. Sadly, those two factors almost always go hand in hand in baseball. As long as pitchers remain the more unpredictable and risky long-term investment, teams would be wise to avoid investing in them if possible.
“I would actually do the opposite of what Dave would – spend money on pitching, let every thing else work itself out.
And you’d have the 2008 Mariners.
Hell, the 2009 Giants have one of the best rotations in baseball and are struggling to sneak into the playoffs. The Angels’ rotation has been mediocre, and they’re a lock for the playoffs. And so on.
You’d obviously prefer to have both, but hitters are going to be more dependable.
No, not really. The M’s were seriously considering giving away Washburn at the trade deadline last year for nothing (aside from salary relief). This year they got something for him. Even French and Robles amount to nothing more than organizational filler, it’s still something more than worthless “monopoly money.”
Only to dead center and right field. When it comes to giving up home runs to left field, Comerica is more hitter-friendly than Safeco — for a flyball lefty like Washburn who only looks good when he can limit his HR rate, that’s a problem (as the more astute pointed out at the time of the trade).
All but one of the nine eleven HRs Washburn has given up since joining the Tigers have been at Comerica, and according to hit tracker all but two of those have been to center or left center (no data yet on the two he surrendered today). Of course, to be fair, his total would be significantly lower if he hadn’t coughed up four dingers to his former team in one game; perhaps M’s hitters had an unfair advantage. Also, at least according to hit tracker, five or six of his Detroit HRs were hit so hard they would’ve been out of any park in the majors, including Safeco (though Safeco rarely gets as sultry as Detroit in mid-summer)..
Nevertheless, regardless of how Detroit’s defense measures up to Seattle’s, there’s nothing they can do when balls are going over that left field wall.
It may not be obvious, but I put a link in that comment to this THT study showing Comerica is more HR-hitter friendly to left field.
Also, that “nine eleven” thing was supposed to have nine struck-through — because he’d just given up two today — but apparently Fangraphs doesn’t allow the strike tag.
Atleast one of his HR’s given up was to Left, not Left Center… I was there today and it was over the Visitors bullpen which is far left field…
There were a lot of Royals fans who thought .500 was attainable…I don’t think there were many who considered them the favorites in the AL Central…let’s not make things up.
A lot of the “Royals are the new Rays” talk came from other places, like MLB network and the like….
Yeah, but I remember that conversation trickling over to hear once or twice too, when Fangraphs did it’s “ranking the teams” posts…
“Smart investors diversify – smart teams spend money on hitters.”
So are you saying that the Ms should pass on signing Felix long term?
If they can sign him to an extension now, beyond the two additional seasons they already have him (2010-2011), then yes…assuming that, by agreeing to an extension, he is also accepting a slight discount on his projected free agent value. If you can get two TEAM option years attached to the back end of an extension for Felix, then of course hell yes.
If Felix does indeed reach FA at age 26 after 2011, though, that’s going to be an excruciatingly tough decision, because if he remains great he’s going to be offered ~$23-$25M per for eight years. It’d be scary for any non-Yankee team to commit $200M to a pitcher.
Depends on the price.
Just look at Washburn’s monthly K, BB, GB, and FB totals here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=3834. It’s hardly like he’s been shockingly worse than the rest of the year: his GB/FB is even a little higher than his time with Seattle and his BBs are about constant – although his Ks are down a little, I think Dave’s let his emotions about Washburn as a Seattle fan get in the way of his normal statistical/analytical detachment in determining that this is a change in true talent level rather than a regression to his previous one. BTW, fangraphs should definitely, definitely list xFIP – FIP’s simplicity is admirable, but it’s dominated by HR numbers that we know are in large part random.
Dave, I really enjoy this type of post, where you pick 3-4 events from the day that might not be worthy of a full in-depth analysis, but are worthy of a few paragraphs of your thoughts.
This one has clearly sparked good conversation in the community. I hope you continue to do them when you don’t have time for full-length in-depth analysis and/or when the relatively minor newsworthiness of the items makes it undeserving of greater attention.
Is Washburn really regressing to his BABIP mean? Yeah, it was lower than his career average, but his career average is under .280. Was his first-half BABIP — while accounting for the smaller sample size — statistically significant? I didn’t actually scribble out the math but I don’t think it is.
Washburn is simply pitching badly. Occam’s Razor and all.
It doesn’t need to be statistically significant for regression to happen. Actually, I think if it were significant, you might assume that something underlying had changed.
Sample size gets larger -> sample mean approaches true mean. That’s regression.
Oh, I wasn’t saying that regression can’t happen; I’m saying that he’s just had a rough stretch of games. I don’t think he’s any more or less likely to pitch as well as he had before the trade.
Dave – no mention of the fact that the Red Sox released Penny and Smoltz, only to give a rotation spot to Paul Byrd? I thought you would be all over that.
No because on this site Tampa, Seattle and Boston can do no wrong…
Dave has actually been quite critical of Boston recently.
Can’t wait for JoePos’ view on DM’s extension.