A Penny Saved
For a few weeks now, it’s been assumed that Brad Penny would be the odd man out in the overcrowded Boston rotation. Brought in on a one year deal as something of a reclamation project, Penny didn’t get off to a very strong start, and he was standing in thew ay of youngsters Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz, which didn’t exactly endear him to Red Sox nation. With John Smoltz making his way back, trade rumors have been swirling around Penny for weeks. Over his last four starts, however, Penny has been pitching like a guy who wants to stick around.
5/25: 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 4 GB, 8 FB
5/30: 6 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 6 GB, 9 FB
6/5: 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 10 GB, 5 FB
6/11: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 11 GB, 6 FB
That’s a 3.37 FIP over his last four trips to the mound, the last two of which were against the Rangers and Yankees. It’s not just his performances, either – take a look at his velocity chart.
His fastball is trending upwards as the season has gone along, suggesting that the improved results aren’t just a good stretch but perhaps indicative of Penny returning towards his previously established performances when healthy. He probably never will get all the way back to what he was earlier in his career, but he’s showing that he can still be a quality major league performer, whether its for Boston or someone else. We’re past the point where Boston fans should be happy to see this guy go just so he can make room for the other starters in the organization. Penny’s spent the last few weeks proving that he still has value, and it will be interesting to see how Boston handles the situation.
23
Sell high.
Sure he may go higher, but at some point you need to think you have reached enough ROI. Find a replacement for Ortiz or get a catcher for the future. Ortiz has had a fairly good week, but I don’t see it continuing.
Or send Dice-K to the DL with a “strained oblique”
That will make room for Smoltz as a starter and possibly allow the Sox to get even more out of Penny and still have the option of trading him when Dice-K is “better”
Or send Smoltz to the pen
Papelbon kind of scares me. 4.05 FIP, dropping K/9, 95% LOB, and he does not throw his splitter anymore. At worst Smoltz would be a fantastic set up guy.
Decisions decisions.
Decisions indeed, though I imagine they’re good dilemmas to have. Not only do they have too many starters, they’ve got guys in Smoltz and Masterson who’ve shown they can be either starter or reliever, though for Smoltz, it’s mostly a matter of historical ability. For now, they’ve got a good thing going and can afford to deal Penny, but who’s available? I know starting pitching is always in need, but who can they get in return? Catcher and shortstop being premium positions, they’re rarely available, and will the Sox take on a 1-1.5 WAR type of hitter, stick him at DH, and bench Papi? Can you get any more than that from Penny?
Looking just at peripherals, he’s put up numbers this year that look very similar to his average seasons. Through his time with the Marlins and Dodgers, it seems like Penny was always good for 6.3-7 K/9, 2.5-2.8 BB/9, and 1 HR/9. This season’s totals so far: 6 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9. His oddball years, where he showed very different FIPs from his norms (using his norms as 2003-2006) were due to HR/9 and HR/FB up or down from career norms.
So his K’s are down this year, a result of hitters maybe hitting better on his OZone pitches, but the contact rate has remained the same. If he can up that K rate, he may be of some use for a contender, maybe even the Red Sox! I guess it really depends on what they want to do with Papi or the shortstop position, but with no shortstops on the market, it’ll be tough to come up with something to trade Penny for.
Yeah, I’d sell high. I didn’t think Penny was really that outstanding last night. The Yankees played like an A ball team.
You don’t think Penny was that amazing against one of the best lineups in baseball? Just how much do you expect out of your fifth starter? Personally, I’d love see the Sox just release Smoltz so that he and Glavine can go wallow in self-pity together.
What about a trade to the Rangers? They have 3 young catchers in Teagarden, Saltalamacchia, and Ramirez. There is no way they would part with Andrus, but Vizquel could handle SS for a year or they could even try and get Vallejo.
The problem is that the rumored asking price for Salty is Buccholz. I’d be all for giving up Bowden for Salty (or even better, Teagarden), but I defintely understand the hesitation to trade a potential top-of-the-rotation starter for a guy that still hasn’t proven that he can make consistent contact against major league pitching.
Or the Mets might be desperate enough to give up Wilmer Flores or even more.
No chance, but god would that make me happy.
What about a move to the Angels for Wood? It’s obvious Scioscia is more comfortable with Izturis at short for some reason and I’m pretty sure they just sent Wood back to the minors. Penny has played in LA before and the Angels can use the pitching to try to claw themselves back into first place in the West. Anyone think this is a possibility?
Penny is not a good fit the the Angels, they’re getting all their guys back now and may even have a glut. I agree that the BoSox should trade him while his value is up, but for what? Someone mentioned Flores, I’m not sure if he can be traded yet (his age and length of service) but if he can, that would be a great acquisition. Or, what about going after Tejada to play shortstop? They’d have to package someone else with Penny, but they have plenty of chips.
I thought about Tejada, and it wouldn’t be a bad choice. However, one has to think they’d want somebody who has a semblance of a shortstop glove, and Tejada has clearly lost the capability to play shortstop at an expected Major League level. Could they carry his bat, solid now but moving back to the big boy league, and the type of defense he brings at shortstop?
Then again, he’d be an upgrade over Lugo certainly.