Comments on: A Quiz http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:42:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94242 Andrew Sun, 30 Aug 2009 09:18:06 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94242 Whoa it's zero. It all makes sense now the Sox had to release Penny to make room for this hot pitching prospect. Otherwise the move makes no sense since Penny is being paid in big macs. Whoa it’s zero. It all makes sense now the Sox had to release Penny to make room for this hot pitching prospect.

Otherwise the move makes no sense since Penny is being paid in big macs.

]]> By: Ender http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94134 Ender Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:43:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94134 100 IP isnt anywhere near enough to remove luck, takes over 200 IP. 100 IP isnt anywhere near enough to remove luck, takes over 200 IP.

]]> By: hazel http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94091 hazel Sat, 29 Aug 2009 05:50:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94091 Perhaps someone should write a post about statistical and PfX literacy of fangraphs readers. Perhaps someone should write a post about statistical and PfX literacy of fangraphs readers.

]]> By: hazel http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94090 hazel Sat, 29 Aug 2009 05:47:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94090 Satire? Satire?

]]> By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94079 Andrew Sat, 29 Aug 2009 03:56:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94079 All of the examples you gave are pretty bad. Barry Zito's peripherals have looked really strong this season. He's striking out a lot more people and inducing popups like he did back in Oakland. Mark Buehrle is very dependent on his defense so it's not surprising his numbers would fluctuate. Plus there is the mental aspect of living up to having thrown a perfect game. A lot of people are saying Roy Halladay is injured and is #3 in pitcher abuse points this year (http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=465584). Justin Verlander was bad last year, #4 in PAP, and is #1 in pitcher abuse points this year. Dan Haren is always pretty bad in the second half, especially the last two years. His career ERA after the all-star break is 4.18 compared to 3.08 before it. He has 527 IP post-ASB so this isn't a SSS issue. If any of you have him on your fantasy team next year, trade him immediately after the ASB. If anything, I think the pitchers you listed proves the validity of PAP. Shoulder surgery is a really serious injury for a pitcher. Plus Smoltz has had like 4 career-ending injuries. I really can't think of anyone who came back from shoulder surgery and returned to dominate form when inserted back in the rotation. Finally, there were a lot of financial/opportunity cost reasons to release Smoltz All of the examples you gave are pretty bad. Barry Zito’s peripherals have looked really strong this season. He’s striking out a lot more people and inducing popups like he did back in Oakland. Mark Buehrle is very dependent on his defense so it’s not surprising his numbers would fluctuate. Plus there is the mental aspect of living up to having thrown a perfect game. A lot of people are saying Roy Halladay is injured and is #3 in pitcher abuse points this year (http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=465584). Justin Verlander was bad last year, #4 in PAP, and is #1 in pitcher abuse points this year. Dan Haren is always pretty bad in the second half, especially the last two years. His career ERA after the all-star break is 4.18 compared to 3.08 before it. He has 527 IP post-ASB so this isn’t a SSS issue. If any of you have him on your fantasy team next year, trade him immediately after the ASB. If anything, I think the pitchers you listed proves the validity of PAP.

Shoulder surgery is a really serious injury for a pitcher. Plus Smoltz has had like 4 career-ending injuries. I really can’t think of anyone who came back from shoulder surgery and returned to dominate form when inserted back in the rotation. Finally, there were a lot of financial/opportunity cost reasons to release Smoltz

]]> By: Troy Patterson http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94066 Troy Patterson Sat, 29 Aug 2009 02:42:09 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94066 I think the Red Sox would take a 4.45 pitcher out of Smoltz, but obviously the mean shows how much value a pitcher with a K/BB over 4.66 has. I think the Red Sox would take a 4.45 pitcher out of Smoltz, but obviously the mean shows how much value a pitcher with a K/BB over 4.66 has.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94041 Nick Fri, 28 Aug 2009 22:30:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94041 Actually 6 pitchers have had an ERA over 4.00 with a K:BB > 4.66 and at least 100 innings pitched. The highest was David Wells, with a 4.45 ERA in 05, and the mean of the group was 2.71. Actually 6 pitchers have had an ERA over 4.00 with a K:BB > 4.66 and at least 100 innings pitched. The highest was David Wells, with a 4.45 ERA in 05, and the mean of the group was 2.71.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94023 Nick Fri, 28 Aug 2009 21:32:53 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94023 Actually, his ERA in 40 innings is exactly as meaningful as those pitchers. Actually, his ERA in 40 innings is exactly as meaningful as those pitchers.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94022 Nick Fri, 28 Aug 2009 21:30:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94022 The point is that you can't tell much about a pitcher based on his ERA or even his FIP, because there is way too much variance in a small sample size. Even if Smoltz was severely hampered by the injury, and it's possible that he was, you couldn't tell that from a 40 inning sample because anyone can pitch poorly or well in that sample. If Smoltz had a 1.00 ERA, it still wouldn't mean anything more than if he had a 8.00 ERA. The point is that you can’t tell much about a pitcher based on his ERA or even his FIP, because there is way too much variance in a small sample size.

Even if Smoltz was severely hampered by the injury, and it’s possible that he was, you couldn’t tell that from a 40 inning sample because anyone can pitch poorly or well in that sample. If Smoltz had a 1.00 ERA, it still wouldn’t mean anything more than if he had a 8.00 ERA.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-quiz/#comment-94018 Nick Fri, 28 Aug 2009 21:17:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8815#comment-94018 Via Pitch f/x, his stuff remains above average. Via Pitch f/x, his stuff remains above average.

]]>