A Walk Through The 2012 ZIPS
This morning, David Appelman added the 2012 ZIPS projections to the site. While it’s certainly true that most projection systems spit out pretty similar results, ZIPS remains my projection system of choice. Dan Szymborski has done a great job of maintaining the model without huge year to year fluctuations, and the in-season ZIPS tool is a great way to get a feel for how important updated data during the season is in various categories.
So, let’s take a quick stroll through the 2012 ZIPS projections and look at some of the results that stand out. We’ll go position by position, starting behind the plate, and remind you that this is sorted by offense only:
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Napoli | 383 | 0.272 | 0.361 | 0.538 | 0.899 | 0.385 |
| Carlos Santana | 499 | 0.246 | 0.361 | 0.449 | 0.810 | 0.353 |
| Brian McCann | 493 | 0.270 | 0.354 | 0.458 | 0.812 | 0.350 |
| Joe Mauer | 447 | 0.302 | 0.380 | 0.432 | 0.812 | 0.350 |
| Buster Posey | 484 | 0.287 | 0.358 | 0.440 | 0.798 | 0.347 |
There’s a 32 point gap between Napoli and the next best hitting catcher in wOBA. Yes, some of that is due to the park factors, but there’s still a huge gap between Napoli and Santana. Put simply, Napoli is the best hitting catcher in baseball, and it’s not even very close. He likely gives back some of the bat’s value with his defense, but the fact that he’s improved enough to stay behind the plate makes him an extremely valuable player. He’ll be a pretty fascinating free agent a year from now.
Also interesting to see ZIPS not giving up at all on Joe Mauer, even though it isn’t programmed to know anything about injuries. Even if there weren’t extenuating circumstances, it still sees Mauer’s 2011 as a fluke, and expects him to get back to something resembling his old self in 2012. Twins fans have to like this projection.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera | 558 | 0.310 | 0.406 | 0.548 | 0.954 | 0.402 |
| Joey Votto | 544 | 0.294 | 0.402 | 0.529 | 0.931 | 0.399 |
| Albert Pujols | 550 | 0.302 | 0.388 | 0.564 | 0.952 | 0.397 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 582 | 0.297 | 0.384 | 0.526 | 0.910 | 0.383 |
| Prince Fielder | 561 | 0.275 | 0.394 | 0.504 | 0.898 | 0.380 |
ZIPS would like to please ask you to stop projecting imminent decline for Albert Pujols, thanks. Despite all the “trend analysis” that points out that his wOBA has been going the wrong way for three years running, ZIPS projects a nice little bounce back for the Angels new star first baseman. The .397 projection isn’t vintage Pujols, but keep in mind that the run environment has changed since his peak years, and this mark still makes him the fourth best hitter in baseball.
Also, Adrian Gonzalez is projected to outhit Prince Fielder. Even before you include baserunning, defense, and potential aging problems due to size, Gonzalez grades out ahead of the Tigers big off-season splash. Even accounting for giving up three prospects, it’s pretty obvious that Boston did better than Detroit in the “acquire a new first baseman” contest over the last few winters.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kinsler | 536 | 0.274 | 0.360 | 0.474 | 0.834 | 0.370 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 562 | 0.294 | 0.368 | 0.461 | 0.829 | 0.363 |
| Robinson Cano | 609 | 0.299 | 0.347 | 0.506 | 0.853 | 0.363 |
| Chase Utley | 460 | 0.265 | 0.362 | 0.448 | 0.810 | 0.360 |
| Rickie Weeks | 450 | 0.260 | 0.350 | 0.460 | 0.810 | 0.356 |
For the last few years, Yankees and Red Sox fans have fought over which team actually has the best second baseman in baseball. Turns out, they’re both wrong. Ian Kinsler, everyone – probably the most underrated elite player in baseball.
Like with the Twins and Mauer, you have to think the Phillies would gladly take that projected line from Utley. He might not be the game’s premier second baseman anymore, but a top five performance in nearly 500 plate appearances would be a valuable contribution and help keep Philadelphia on top of the NL East.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Tulowitzki | 537 | 0.294 | 0.367 | 0.533 | 0.900 | 0.384 |
| Jose Reyes | 497 | 0.302 | 0.353 | 0.471 | 0.824 | 0.362 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 501 | 0.283 | 0.365 | 0.459 | 0.824 | 0.360 |
| Marco Scutaro | 477 | 0.289 | 0.350 | 0.415 | 0.765 | 0.337 |
| Starlin Castro | 634 | 0.301 | 0.343 | 0.432 | 0.775 | 0.336 |
Talk about a barren wasteland. Reyes’ move to Miami means that only two of the three decent hitting shortstops in baseball are actually going to play the position this year. The gap between Reyes and the now-third-best-projected-hitting-SS is actually bigger than the gap between Napoli and the next best hitting catcher. This is why I like the Reyes contract – he’s an extremely rare commodity in today’s game. There just aren’t any shortstops who can produce at the plate anymore, and even with the injury problems, the expected performance is going to be clearly worth the money this year.
As for the Scutaro projection, you have to take a bit of air out of the numbers due to the Colorado effect, but still, it’s pretty amazing that the Red Sox essentially had to give this guy away. Very few teams in baseball had better options at shortstop.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 558 | 0.274 | 0.367 | 0.514 | 0.881 | 0.378 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 421 | 0.268 | 0.374 | 0.477 | 0.851 | 0.370 |
| Brett Lawrie | 600 | 0.275 | 0.333 | 0.498 | 0.831 | 0.362 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 405 | 0.264 | 0.350 | 0.474 | 0.824 | 0.358 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 515 | 0.283 | 0.354 | 0.476 | 0.830 | 0.358 |
ZIPS has climbed aboard the Brett Lawrie bandwagon, and is projecting him to essentially be an All-Star in his first full season. Yeah, that’s not a bad return for two years of Shaun Marcum.
Also, it’s somewhat interesting how Boston and New York both have similar third baseman – aging, injury prone guys who can still hit when healthy but offer suspect defense at the hot corner. Both teams look like they’ll need backups who can play the position regularly.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Braun | 608 | 0.296 | 0.360 | 0.525 | 0.885 | 0.385 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 574 | 0.294 | 0.352 | 0.521 | 0.873 | 0.375 |
| Matt Holliday | 517 | 0.288 | 0.371 | 0.484 | 0.855 | 0.370 |
| Josh Hamilton | 499 | 0.289 | 0.342 | 0.497 | 0.839 | 0.358 |
| Alex Gordon | 547 | 0.278 | 0.358 | 0.464 | 0.822 | 0.358 |
If Kinsler isn’t the most underrated elite player, it’s probably Holliday, who never comes up in the discussion of the best outfielders in the game but just keeps hitting like one. Once you include park factors and defense, there’s not a huge gap between him and Ryan Braun.
For Hamilton, this isn’t a very good projection. A .358 wOBA while playing half your games in Texas is more good than great, and if he does put up that kind of season at age 31, it will be interesting to see just what the market is for him as a free agent next year. The issues with addiction are already likely to keep him from getting a really long contract, but that kind of performance would probably keep the AAV from getting too high as well.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Kemp | 586 | 0.280 | 0.348 | 0.503 | 0.851 | 0.364 |
| Curtis Granderson | 547 | 0.256 | 0.346 | 0.495 | 0.841 | 0.364 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 585 | 0.274 | 0.361 | 0.455 | 0.816 | 0.359 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 527 | 0.290 | 0.345 | 0.457 | 0.802 | 0.357 |
| Shane Victorino | 576 | 0.274 | 0.342 | 0.450 | 0.792 | 0.348 |
Factoring in defense and park, McCutchen probably grades out as the best CF in baseball, though it’s pretty close. Kemp and Ellsbury are both expected to still be terrific players, but this is also a huge step backwards for both. 2011 is almost certainly going to represent a career year for each of them.
Also, Shane Vicotrino would like throw his hat into that “underrated elite player” ring. He’s really good, and part of the reason why the Phillies have been able to stay on top of the NL East while Ryan Howard and Chase Utley regressed.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Bautista | 461 | 0.273 | 0.408 | 0.566 | 0.974 | 0.414 |
| Mike Stanton | 546 | 0.267 | 0.361 | 0.549 | 0.910 | 0.385 |
| Justin Upton | 580 | 0.283 | 0.366 | 0.505 | 0.871 | 0.376 |
| Lance Berkman | 427 | 0.269 | 0.381 | 0.471 | 0.852 | 0.364 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 521 | 0.288 | 0.348 | 0.489 | 0.837 | 0.363 |
ZIPS doesn’t expect Bautista to slow down at all, and projects him as the best hitter in baseball for 2012. Even as good as Stanton and Upton are, Joey Bats blows them both out of the water here. It’s funny how much attention Jeremy Lin and Tim Tebow have gotten, when Bautista is basically baseball’s version of that story, just better and sustained.
Also, that Michael Cuddyer projection has a lot to do with his new address in Colorado, but the Rockies would still have to be pretty thrilled with that kind of performance. Even with park adjusted numbers and bad defense, he’d grade out as a top 10 right fielder. I still don’t love the signing, but ZIPS thinks Cuddyer is going to age very nicely.
| Name | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ortiz | 462 | 0.266 | 0.357 | 0.498 | 0.855 | 0.364 |
| Paul Konerko | 493 | 0.278 | 0.359 | 0.493 | 0.852 | 0.364 |
| Jim Thome | 251 | 0.247 | 0.349 | 0.494 | 0.843 | 0.362 |
| Jason Kubel | 458 | 0.277 | 0.342 | 0.487 | 0.829 | 0.356 |
| Billy Butler | 586 | 0.295 | 0.362 | 0.462 | 0.824 | 0.355 |
David Ortiz, still good.
Also, ZIPS is a big fan of Jason Kubel. That’s another signing that I’m still not a fan of, but if ZIPS is right, still could work out well for the Diamondbacks. They can’t DH Kubel, but even with bad defense, a .356 wOBA is pretty useful, especially for a line-up that skews very right-handed.
Tomorrow, we’ll walk through some of the pitcher projections.
1
Twins fans know better than that projection. Sadly.
Jose Bautista is Lintastic.
You really hate Prince Fielder, huh?
No. He hates Prince Fielder’s contract. And the incredibly poor roster fit.
No, he hates Detroit.
Just ask Tigers fans, they’ll tell you.
The projections and contract speak for themselves. It’s not exactly controversial that Adrian Gonzalez is a better player signed for a better price.
Agreed AGon is better. Until his shoulder gives out again. He hasn’t missed season time yet, hoping he doesn’t.
And I agree that Prince’s contract is absurd. But he’s two years younger than AGon.
We can argue about their contracts, but the fact is that Prince Fielder is younger and has no injury history.
Its not hate, he’s just fixated on (1) normative salaries and (2) a future probability that Prince sucks because he’s fat.
If you appreciate situational salaries and a panoply of probabilities, its OK to say nice things about Prince.
How does Braun get 600 AB’s after he serves a 50 game suspension?
ZiPS is not play time adjusted.
We’ll see about the possible suspension.
Braun won his grievance:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7608360/ryan-braun-wins-appeal-50-game-suspension
zing
What 50 game suspension?
Is there a projection system that takes into account games played in determining value? Utley and Weeks have higher projected wOBA, but in around 150 less ABs than guys like Brandon Phillips.
Look at the Fan projections, which take playing time and performance and give you an overall value in WAR.
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fan
Dave,
I’d love to get your feeling on some of these. For example, do you think ZIPS is overly optimistic on Mauer and Utley?
I’m struggling to find the use for these projections. Not even taking Braun’s suspension into account is kinda silly. Calling Ian Kinsler the best 2nd baseman in baseball is absurd considering his injury woes.
In an ideal world, where everyone gets their 500/600 at-bats, this projection system is great. But we all know, it’s not an ideal world out there.
And please, shush about Scutaro! That’s my ace-in-the-hole, punt SS strategy comin’ to mama, baby!
The lack of playing-time projections is an issue, but not all that major a one. It already takes into account missed time in previous seasons (thus Josh Hamilton’s low AB projection, so for things like suspensions, or if you think it’s giving too much playing time to someone for any reason, just adjust for that.
The best thing about ZIPS is that it’s adjusted in-season after every game. It’s pretty fantastic.
Alright, cool. And Braun’s not suspended so that’s moot! :)
You are free to make any playing time assumptions you want and adjust accordingly. There are good reasons why the projection system does not do this.
I think you should take the “most underrated elite player in baseball” on the road some time and see if you still think he’s elite.
Most players hit poorly on the road. You get a much better idea of a player’s true talent by adjusting for park factors.
Or just looking at numbers that are already park-adjusted, like WAR or wRC+ (but not wOBA). Kinsler has the exact same career wRC+ as Cano, and these park factors are not (I believe) taking into account how much more NYS helps LH power.
458 ABs for Kubel, keeping in mind he has to play the field on knees that have bothered him his entire career, seems very optimistic.
Kemp plans on beating those projections, evidently.
And stealing some bases too.
…yahoo story…link
where’s beltre? Not in the top 5? And is michael young considered a dh? because it’s hard to believe that thome, kubel and butler will do better.
Re: the DH grouping – there are some issues there if it is intended to provide an overview of the AL landscape. Konerko is predominantly a 1B, and Thome is in the NL.
The Red Sox look really dumb for giving away a top 5 SS just to save his more than reasonable salary.
“Also, Adrian Gonzalez is projected to outhit Prince Fielder. Even before you include baserunning, defense, and potential aging problems due to size, Gonzalez grades out ahead of the Tigers big off-season splash. Even accounting for giving up three prospects, it’s pretty obvious that Boston did better than Detroit in the “acquire a new first baseman” contest over the last few winters.”
Just to be clear, he’s talking about a wOBA difference of three hundredths of a point. Three. This is so stupid I don’t know what to do with myself. I get you don’t like the Prince deal – really, I do – but honestly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss8LDBNcsWc
Well, he is technically correct, the best kind of correct.
Prince got the fourth largest contract in baseball history and he’s only the fifth best projected hitting first baseman this year.
looks like we don’t even have to play the season, zips is here!
seriously, this is stupid.
projection systems are cool, but this is making way too much out of them.
What is your method of predicting/projecting the season and estimating how players might do?
Let’s not act like talking about the upcoming season and who will win and who’ll do well and who’ll bust isn’t a big part of baseball.
What is the big deal being made about the projections? Did one of these guys just win 2/5′s of an MVP or something?
It’s fun. Fun goddamit.
Projections seem to bother Red Sox and Yankee fans the most. Even more than the knowledge that Ian Kinsler is, by far, the best 2B in baseball.
Well, he’s the best-HITTING 2B in baseball, by a bit. But he’s not the best overall 2B.
Yeah, because Kinsler’s defense knocks him way down the list of best 2B, seeing as how he finished 2nd in UZR last season.
Kinsler is the best hitting 2B by a bit? Is that why Cano AND Pedroia have had a higher wRC+ each of the last 3 seasons?
Honestly, I love Kinsler, he has been a fantasy stud for me for years, but let’s get real.
@Dirtbag: he had a fantastic defensive season, but let’s see him repeat it before we call him a great defensive 2B, considering his middling scouting reports and previous UZR ratings.
@Wait: I was clearly wrong to say he’s the best-hitting 2B. He has the best projection by wOBA for next year, but yeah, when you take park effects into consideration, he doesn’t field OR hit as well as Pedroia.
Ian Kinsler CAREER wRC+ on the road?
92… yes that’s 8% below league average!
(Last 3 years: 76,91,96)
I think the wOBA projections are fine because they account for Kinsler playing in the best hitter’s park in baseball. But to say he is the best hitting 2nd baseman is a bit disingenuous. If you take a second to look at his home/road splits, you’d realize just how much he benefits from playing in Arlington.
Over the last 3 years he’s tied for 6th in wRC+ among 2nd baseman. I
t’s also worth noting he’s 5th in WAR in that timeframe since folks like to think his defense combined with offense puts him in the Top3 ( or Top 1)
Joe, virtually everybody’s road stats are lower than home stats, probably by an average of a lot more than 8%. This is meaningless.
is this in some alternate universe where robinson cano and dustin pedroia decided that baseball wasn’t for them?
no A’s, one giant in the whole bunch. sad for sfbay baseball. I know we have 2 pitchers parks here, but I’m still disappointed.
as i mentioned below, pablo is most definitely a top 5 3b, but was somehow overlooked. and hey, buster is there in the catchers list! also, while looking at the a’s hitters in the cold light of zips isn’t always reassuring, i’m holding out some (at least partially) justifiable hope that at least ONE of the A’s young hitters (carter, allen, cespedes, smith, reddick, kila et al) will finally have a breakout season (or at least a solidly 3-5 war one).
they have bryan lahair projected for 24 home runs. I’d say that’s a bit optomistic
You talk about Hamilton like that .358 wOBA is actually happening, or worse, he might not even muster that much. But ZiPS’ 0.358 wOBA is a crazy low projection for him. It’s 30 points lower than his career wOBA, and 25 lower than any other projection. Why so pessimistic?
I would just use this to rank relatively. A lot of numbers look very low (lowballing league average?). 4 1b were .400+ wOBA last year, and this is predicting 0 (7 had .380+, predicting 3). Holliday is a career .398 wOBA and hasn’t been below .390 in over 6 years. Holliday has been a mark on consistency (looking at wRC pretty consistent countering for Colorado).
No, this is not predicting there will be no 400+ wOBA 1b. You are confusing predictions for individual players with predictions for the whole. Of the 1B’s, there will be some with 400+ wOBA, but the odds are slightly against any one of them achieving that mark.
Hold on, where is pablo sandoval in the 3B category? zips projects him for an .844 OPS in 600+ at bats, which would rank him above Lawrie as the 3rd best 3b in baseball. on a related note, i’m kind of shocked by how often lists like this seem to forget about pablo’s existence – i think part of it is due to the fact that he was just under the ab threshold to qualify last year so he doesn’t show up on a lot of the lists that writers are consulting when they make these posts (though his counting numbers are still excellent despite the missed time). but seriously, how is a 25 year old 3b with a career triple slash of .301 .356 .501 and 14 war already collected in his career so consistently overlooked? i mean probably because when they think think of ‘san francisco giants’ and ‘hitter’ at the same time images of aubrey huff and aaron rowand rush into their mind until they pass out, but still.
Because it’s sorted by wOBA and ZiPS projects a 0.355 for him.
oh ok (wasn’t claiming that there was a conspiracy or nothin). though i’ll admit that I’m now a bit confused about the calculation of wOBA – how is lawrie’s higher despite sandoval being projected for a higher BA and OBP and the same SLG? apologies if i’m missing something obvious – i enjoy advanced metrics but have pathetic math skills, so i know very little about how most are calculated.
forget it, i see now that lawries projected iso is significantly better, which would explain the difference (also, man, look at all those triples). nonetheless – lawrie’s pretty much a lock to be awesome, but i would put money on pablo having the better season next year.
I’m confused about your Scutaro comment, Dave. I thought ZiPS projections are park-adjusted. Am I wrong?
nice article, the subraction is a bit off as Napoli vs Santana is actually a bigger gap than Reye/Castro.
I’ve been pleading Holliday’s case for years on fangraphs and you all disagree with me. Saying Teixeira is better. WTF?
Pedroia’s defense is better than Kinsler’s and his home park doesn’t give him as big of an advantage. You can’t simply look at wOBA Pedroia is superior to Kinsler. Here’s this WAR graph of Pedroia vs Cano vs Kinsler http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=8370,6195,3269. Pedroia is lower than Kinsler at one age. Only one year is he lower in terms of WAR. At Pedroia’s age, Kinsler had nowhere near the WAR Pedroia does. Pedroia also wins in the nth best season test. Pedroia has more career WAR than Kinsler in 200 less PAs. I don’t know how you could call Kinsler better.
I really do not understand why Fangraphs gives these various projections so much love.
Unless we found a system that had verifiable, high levels of success in predictions, I don’t get why we should care about any one of these projection systems. (Maybe I have missed some article/study that shows that one of these systems is quite successful. If I have, please direct me to it.)
Looking back on each system after a year is completed seems to result in a range of hits and misses that one would expect from anybody making predictions across the whole league.
I understand that adjusting for various aspects that are viewed as usually luck-based (BABIP, HR/FB, etc) is helpful. But taking the predictions to this extreme seems like nothing more than a fun way to pass the time during the offseason.
So, you’re saying that projections aren’t how each and every player is actually going to perform.
Thanks a lot man, now I have to follow and watch MLB games this summer.
What extreme? By going way out there and ranking them in descending order of wOBA by position to get a comparison? That’s really out there.
It is a fun way to pass time during the off-season. That’s the point.
Most underrated elite player….Zobrist anyone? underrated by Zips by the look of it too.
that .323 wOBA in 2010 probably isn’t helping
Not just that bit in 2011 he posted his lowest BB rate and highest K rate of his (essentially) 3-year career.
The ~9 WAR 2009 was a lot like Mauer’s … he basically hit the luck jackpot on BABIP, UZR,
2011 is probably much more realistic to his true talent, provided the .310 BABIP and 12% HR.FB rates and +10 UZR are “norms” for him.
But when you only have 3 seasons, and one is outstanding, one pretty stinky, and one in between … the “middle one” is more likely to be accurate than one of the extremes.
But a +30 batting runs and +10 fielding runs player is going to be valuable and he is under-appreciated.
The guy who made these projections either thinks that it is 1968, or he simply despises hitting
Come on, a guy hitting .310 wins a batting title? If that really happens, it will be the first time since 1988 in the NL (1973 in the AL) when a Batting Champion batted below .311!
Also, the last time a guy led both leagues with a .566 Slugging % or lower? Dale Murphy (.547), wayyy back in ’84. You’re predicting something that hasn’t happened in 27 years.
This is a projection system which represents a likely outcome.
Given the # of players there are bound to be outliers (high BABIP, low BABIP) which is why you may not see .330 average projections but you are very likely to see someone actually do that.
9 people had an average over .311 last year… and all of them had higher than normal (career average) BABIP’s. A guy like Adrian Gonzalez had a BABIP nearly 60 points over his career average…Jose Reyes nearly 40point over, Michael Young 30 points over
ZIPS should be able to project something like this and figure out in advance which player it will be?
Yup, predictions *always* should have a tighter range than results, because lots of unlikely things happen that shoudln’t be projected as equally likely to happen as not. Even after projections being around for quite a while, a lot of people still don’t get exactly what projections are or what they mean.
ZiPS’s high projection for BA is .310. But ZiPS also sees a 91% chance that one of the 20 players projected to hit better than .290 hits .325, so it certainly can’t be predicting the league leader to end up anywhere near .310. It also sees a better than 1-in-4 chance (28%) that one of those 20 players hits .350 for a season.
I agree with the spread of a projection, but I think that a lot of these comments have come from the fact that ZIPs generally has lower wOBA projections than James, Roto, and Fans. It is very important to understand the criteria of the projection in areas where distributions are skewed (mean, median, mode). The most likely season to occur can be quite different than the average season.
Most players that win batting titles and/or have big HR seasons experience a non-typical BABIP or HR/FB.
Projections are based on “normal.average” values. For example his HR Leader is 37. The league leader will have more than that but you don;t try to “predict/project” ‘luck’.
Likewise, the ERA leader is Kershaw at 2.54. There were 5 pitchers with ERAs lower than that last year. There will probably be some that are lower in 2012 … but no one “projects” to be lower than that. They’ll likely achieve it by lower than career BABIP, lower than career average HR rate, higher than career average LOB%, or a combination of the 3.
Carson wrote “it’s pretty obvious that Boston did better than Detroit in the “acquire a new first baseman” contest over the last few winters.” Actually, these two teams also seem to be competing in the “acquire two first basemen each” contest as well.