Aceves Presents Low-Risk SP Option for Boston
The Red Sox plucked away a Yankee yesterday, signing 28-year-old right-hander Alfredo Aceves to a $650 thousand dollar contract. Aceves was only a key player for the Yankees for one season, 2009, when he racked up 1.3 WAR in 84 innings with the eventual World Series champs. For his MLB career, 126 innings of primarily relief work with New York, Aceves has a 3.21 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.21 xFIP. The Red Sox, however, plan to convert Aceves into a starter.
Although a large majority of his MLB experience – 54 of his 59 appearances – have come in relief, Aceves was groomed as a starter in the minors by the Yankees. As a 25-year-old, Aceves threw 140.2 innings between three levels, compiling FIPs under 3.00 at A+ and AA before stalling a bit at AAA, where he managed only a 4.02 FIP and a similar ERA. He spent almost all of 2009 relieving in the Majors, and then missed the final 131 games of the 2010 season due to back injury.
Unfortunately, we just don’t have much information to go on. None of the purely statistical signs are appealing. His ERA was great as a reliever, but it was unsupported by his peripherals. He pitched well in the low minors, but that success faded on his arrival in AAA. In a starting role, there’s no reason to expect anything better out of Aceves; in fact, it’s probably wise to expect Aceves’s true talent to be a full run worse as a starter than in the pen, and that doesn’t appear good enough to best Daisuke Matsuzaka, for whom Marcel is projecting a 4.25 ERA.
Obviously though, this is a low-risk move. The cost of $650K is barely over the minimum, and is chump change to almost every team, let alone the Red Sox. If Aceves doesn’t work as a starter, he could have value as a reliever or a swingman. It doesn’t appear like Aceves will contribute much to the Red Sox this season, but he doesn’t have to. Anything out of him this year is merely icing on the cake, and if he remains on the roster, Boston has Aceves for all three of his arbitration seasons as well.
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Still don’t know why the Yankees let him go, especially with their want for pitching. I’d take him over Garcia or Colon.
They knew his medicals better than anyone else and they were leery of giving him a deal. Its not like they were outbid, they showed little interest in bringing him back. That says a lot to me.
Jack,
In theory, a decent low-risk move, as you say. However, he’s recovering from a broken collarbone and damaged shoulder, not to mention his chronic back issues. He won’t even be ready in ST, I believe.
I would have to think the odds on Aceves starting in Boston are mightly long.
Career .239 BABIP, for a flyball pitcher…seems like he’s been pretty lucky. Not a bad emergency starter / long-man if Wakefield can’t handle the role, but I wouldn’t want to see him starting very often.
Surprise, surprise. Fangraphs likes a Theo Epstein move.
Surprise, surprise. You choose ignorant trolling over providing evidence that they’re wrong.
Well the author didn’t present a whole lot of evidence that this is a good move either. He says things like “Unfortunately, we just don’t have much information to go on. None of the purely statistical signs are appealing.” and “It doesn’t appear like Aceves will contribute much to the Red Sox this season, but he doesn’t have to.” Really if you didn’t read the title or the last sentence you would think he thought this was a bad move.
All he’s doing is noting that the Red Sox took a flier for the minimum on a guy they’re going to try to turn into a starting pitcher. It most likely won’t work, but if it does, they have another starting pitcher for the minimum — which is significant upside. If it doesn’t, what’s $650K, especially to Boston (or NYY)? It’s the sort of move that’s interesting to track to see what happens, that’s all.
I think people are misreading what he sox are planning on doing with Aceves. Comparing him to Dice K is silly, Aceves will only be brought in to start in place of Wakefield or Bowden or Doubrount (so not to burn his options). Aceves is a good pick up because for a 7th starter he is pretty good. Additionally he can be a slightly above average middle reliever (revisit his 2 healthy years with NY). He also has 2 options left, which the author failed to mention. So yeah for the league min this is a good pick-up. I’m sorry that you root for a team that’s Front Office is not as good as the Red Sox, but we don’t need to hear your incessant whining about Fangraphs having a bias to Theo.
it seems giving him a major league deal and taking up a spot on the 40 man roster is not a move you’d expect out of a front office as good as the Red Sox right?
The opportunity cost of having to give him a spot on the 40 man is the only real cost here. Of course that just means the Sox drop one of the following players: Nava, Coello, Wagner, Athchison or Bowden. I am pretty confident that most of the those players stand a decent chance of clearing waivers. And if they do get claimed they are all rather fungible assets that most likely can be replaced in house.
Yeah I’m sure it’s because fangraphs has a Red Sox bias as opposed to fangraphs being a sabermetric/advanced stats website and Theo Epstein being a sabermetric/advanced stats GM.
Could be addition by subtraction: subtract a potentially viable starting option from the Yanks to improve the Sox’s odds. Maybe he’s not better than the worst current option, but a FIP of 4.2 is nothing to sniff at. I’m willing to bet the O’s #4 or 5 is worse than that….
Am I wrong to recall a 2008 start on the road against the Angels where he did quite well after just being promoted from AAA?
I think the CC & AJ pickup after the 2008 drought left him going to the pen to have a home; Joba & Hughes also were in on their starting plans with IPK, etc as AAA backups.
are you trying to argue that one start in 2008 proves that he is a successful major league starter?
Just pointing to the fact that he was a starter converted to a reliever.
The bold section in the article states that the are converting him to a starter.
He was a starter and went to long relief with the occaisonal 7th, 8th, or extra inning appearance and he could be a decent starter regardless of how many MLB starts he has had in his career as he has often pitched multiple innings and has a solid career ERA.
They are not reinventing the wheel like KC did with Farnsworth and are likely stating it just to get the WTF anti-Yankke comments going. They already have 6 starters on the MLB roster.
The Yankees had him and wouldn’t give him a dime. That tells me that his medicals must’ve looked pretty bad. They need every pitcher they can get.
I see Aceves as the new Ramiro Mendoza.
I saw him as that, before his injuries. But he’s been hurt a lot (the back injury worries me much more than the more recent collarbone break).
I would have liked it had the Yankees brought him back on a minor league deal as a “break glass in case of emergency” option, or more if he was pitching really well in the minors.
Apparently the Yanks thought his health outlook was really poor, or Aceves got a better offer from the Sox (perhaps the whole “we see you as a starter” thing was the hook).
Though if he was a swingman, wouldn’t that make him the new Halama?
Aren’t all pitchers groomed as starters in the minors?
I’ve been to a few minor league games, and if I recall correctly, there were relief pitchers used.
yes but just because pitchers are used in relief in the few games you’ve seen doesnt mean most minor league pitchers arent groomed as starters, and it would make sense that they are, since that’s the way their parent team can theoretically draw the most value from them before the yankees sign them as free agents
And most of those guys were starters at some point that didn’t work out.
wow @ this question. no, plenty of pitchers come up as relievers even out of college.
Ok, but if you have talent you’re used as a starter until you give a reason why you can’t work in that role. As I recall, Mo, Paps, and Joba were all groomed as starters as well until they showed that they couldn’t hack it. Outside of the Storen & Street weight class most relievers are failed starters, no? Perhaps I shouldn’t have said “all,” but it’s shorter than typing “the vast majority.”
So if health-wise everything works out perfectly he may or may not be an average at best back of the rotation guy… that’s the upside correct? (and even that is debatable as he has no track record as a starter above the AA level)
I understand the low risk part of the move, he’s cheap and it’s money the Red Sox can find between the seat cushions, but I think the ‘goodness’ of this move is a bit oversold. This isn’t a guy coming back from a simple injury or with just one blip on the injury radar screen.
I do wonder if the Royals make this signing, or the D-Backs, if it is assessed in the same manner. Or maybe I should say if the Cubs or Mets or Angels make this move (as they are closer in terms of payroll)- would there be an article on them getting a low risk SP option?
Mets were rumored to be the other suitor actually which probably made the Sox have to offer the major league deal instead of minor.
As for the Theo-bias, I don’t really see the issue.
Being a Yankee fan, I loved watching Ace on the mound. He was a dependable long reliever who was plagued by back problems and a motorcycle accident.His health just became too much for the Yanks to deal with, unfortunately.Other than taking up a 40-man spot (which isn’t that much of an issue),Theo paid barely above league-minimum for a possible return of a great asset in the pen, or in the Sox’s case, the rotation. Gotta tip your hat every once in a while.
FB pitchers do not generally fare well at Fenway unless thye have a high k rate.
That said, if he does work out for the Red Sox, Cashman is going to have a lot of explaining to do.
I do not understand giving Theo credit for spending 300 million on FA’s and giving up 3 top prospects, and also giving him credit for low risk signings that have obvious upside which the Red Sox can easily afford, but for other teams, spending 650 K for an injured RP’er who may not help in 2011 is too risky.
Give a GM enough money to play with and he can look like a genius. The Rays will have an opening day payroll of about 40 million and could win 90 games. Now thats real genius.
It’s a low-risk, potentially high-reward move. Probably doesn’t warrant an entire article, as there are a LOT of signings like this every offseason. But since a high % of fangraphs readers are Red Sox and Yankee fans, an article like this tends to get a lot of hits.
I highly doubt the Aceves signing impacts the AL East race one way or another.