Adam Jones’ Emergence
Dave Cameron pointed out the wave of young center fielders playing in baseball this year a few days ago. I wanted to take a moment to highlight one of those in particular whose game seems to be growing at a rapid rate.
Adam Jones in Baltimore got his first taste of regular play last year following the trade to the Orioles from the Seattle Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal. He responded by putting up some stellar defensive numbers. Although his hitting numbers were poor, the combination of defense plus position made Jones better than a two-win player, all for the league minimum.
Adam Jones has built off that experience this season, coming out the gate in a huge way at the plate. Jones hit all of nine home runs last year over 132 games. Through just 22 this season, he already has five dingers and nine other extra-base hits. He’s boasting an OPS near 1.100 and a wOBA of .471, good enough for over 11 runs above average.
His defensive numbers have fallen back to Earth which is the only facet preventing him from being among the most valuable players in the league. Expect those numbers to bounce back a bit, though all the way back to 2008 levels is likely too much to ask for. Still, Jones is well on his way to becoming a consistent three to four-win player and Baltimore has him under team control for quite a few years yet. Paired with Nick Markakis, the Orioles have an incredibly valuable two-thirds of an outfield sewn up.
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I’ll be the obligatory Mariners fan cursing you for reminding us yet again of that horrible, horrible trade.
Dave Cameron once wrote a great article on how he wouldn’t trade Jones for Bedard straight up. Despite Bedard’s excellent start this year, he’s -0.1 WAR compared to Jones. Amazing.
Hey Matt as a fellow M’s fan lets just ignore this guy for the rest of his career. It will help ease the pain. (although Eric B. has been helping with that this year)
Adam Jones is my favorite player and I’m still angry that the Mariners traded him. Regardless of how much I like the Mariners, I’ll be rooting for Adam Jones to hit the shit out of the ball every time he comes up against the M’s.
He has all the tools to be an all-star and he’s starting to put everything together. A 3-4 win player over the next few years may be selling him short.
With the way Nolan Reimold raked last year in AA, and is continuing to build on that this year at AAA, they may soon have their third very valuable OF contributor.
Now if only Felix Pie would actually pan out…
The 10.5% BB-rate or the 22.9% LD-rate or maybe the average-to-above defense? I’m gonna go out on a limb and wager that the only current problem for Pie is the .194 BABIP coloring folks perception of his season so far.
Unfortunately, that BAbip is coloring the Os perception of his season, too. Word is they’re close to pulling the plug on him.
Really, the BABIP? It has nothing to do with his 27 percent K rate? or 34% from the previous year with the Cubs?
He’s starting to look a lot like Fred Lewis. You can take from that whatever you’d like, but I find it difficult to believe that it’s the BABIP coloring peoples perceptions.
If you refrained from using the word only, maybe I buy what you’re selling.
Given his walk rate, LD%, and speed, that K-rate would be eminently tolerable with a normal BAbip.
I tend to disagree, we can agree that we’re looking at basically a .3-.35 BB/K, composed of a 27-30% K rate and a 10% BB Rate, right? I think Pie succeeds if he ever actually gets his K-Rate down to the 20% his MiLB numbers suggest it should be, but that’s not the point.
Secondly, are we viewing Pie as a LF or a CF? Or are we just viewing him against the players that could potentially replace him: Montanez, Scott, Wiggington?
Pie’s never been given a fair shake and has probably been pulled a bit too soon given his ceiling, but I don’t think it changes the amount of pitches he’s been chasing and his high k-rate.
If you adjust Pie’s line for a normal BABIP (say .310), we’re still looking at a .305-.315? wOBA guy. You’d expect his K rate and LD rate to both trend towards career averages, which’ll probably keep him around the same value (i’m just playing these numbers by eye, I didn’t do any calculations.)
Pie may be making great contact inside of the zone, but he’s chasing too many pitches outside of the zone and not making great contact on those pitches.
This argument is somewhat silly, as i’m attempting to argue that Pie’s BABIP isn’t the only reason he’s bringing the fail. Of course if Pie was sporting a .400 BABIP like Fred Lewis, who I compared him to earlier, he’s probably still in the line-up but at his projected BABIP of .305-.320…ehh, it’s close.
Pie’s speed separates him from his replacements and he’s by no means an efficient base stealer.
I’m not a defensive-metrics guy, but the difference between Pie, Montanez, Scott and Wiggington seems negligible.
Looking at the 3 other options, it’s not like Pie stands out as a sure-thing for the left-field job especially if the Os are looking for power.
Actually watching Pie in the field is coloring Os fans’ perception of him. While he may have the best UZR in the Os outfield, watching him take routes is painful. There are a lot of doubles that should be outs from the looks of things.
Also, how can Jones lead the majors in RF/9, OOZ, have 3 assists, no errors, and have such a terrible UZR/RZR?
Well the Mariners made a couple interesting additions. Steven Shell and Jerry Owens. I still don’t understand why the Nationals gave up on Shell so quickly. Then they go and sign Macdougal and Kensing. What are they doing?
Argh, why must you torture me like this, Matthew?!
(stabs Bavasi voodoo doll repeatedly)
Ahh, Mariners fans.
I made a bet with a drunk Mariner fan at a Christmas party last year. I bet Jones would go 20/20 and we shook on it.
The bet? Box seats at Safeco to the series of my choice.
Things are looking good right now.
Stay classy Seattle.
Smallball
Jones has less than 200 defensive innings this season. How can anything even be said about his defense thus far especially relating to his worth relative to other players?
Most of Jones’s value last season came from his arm.
He’s already thrown out a runner trying to score from third on a single to the outfield.
Yeah, there’s no real reason to be worried about his defense.
If by “most” you mean “~30%,” sure. Jones had an UZR of 9.9 in center last year. 3.1 ArmRuns, 6.6 RangeRuns, and 0.6 ErrorRuns. Yeah, his value was mostly tied to his arm last season.
You’re right, I got Jones and Markakis crossed up in my mind.
Change that “most” to “much”. And the “value” to “defensive value”.