Comments on: Adding Value

By: Rodney King

Rodney King — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:30:10 +0000

Well, they’re already worth way more than a 12th pitcher…I think any multi-positional bonus which might exist is currently negated by using these players in sub-optimal positions for no other reason than “versatility”, while better players sit or are DHd. While I understand the need to rest your players, there is often no rhyme or reason why teams decide to shift around their lineup- for example DeRosa played 1B from time to time with the Cubs…this was obviously not a good idea. Figgins playing CF while Hunter sits would be another situation like this.

By: Rodney King

Rodney King — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:25:08 +0000

Great article- I’ve been thinking about similar points in roster construction recently, essentially that middle relievers should all come from your farm system if possible, and can be shuttled up and down as necessary to keep enough decent arms in the mix. Most teams have several guys who can provide decent enough innings in these spots, and their WAR is more or less going to depend entirely on their luck. So why would you ever sign FAs to fill these roles? (this is particularly pertinent because I’m a Cubs fan and of course they violate this thinking every single year, most recently with the Grabow “deal”.)

Platooning wherever possible seems like a good way to pick up cheap WAR- LF, 1B, 2B seem like they have a lot of potential options for such a platoon. Perhaps I only think this about 2B due to the Cubs having Fontenot, but a lot of the switch-hitting 2B’s are only good at one side of the plate anyway, and there are so few true stars that a team might be better off trying to platoon a AAAA guy in this situation. It would be awesome if a team could find two good-fielding SS’s who can fill both halves of a platoon with good hitting, but it seems like these guys are rare, and are probably already starting at SS no matter how bad they are against same-side pitchers.

Most teams probably have a couple roster spots they’d easily get better use of, not only the 12-13th reliever (which, is there anything more infuriating than a 13th reliever? i think not.) but also a lot of the 24-25th man bench guys serve no discernible purpose except playing garbage time in blowouts; these guys should be brought up from the minors if needed, but otherwise should see their spots filled by players who have some actual purpose.

By: maqman

maqman — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:17:11 +0000

This seems to elevate the value of good WAR level players who can play multiple positions, such as Figgins and DeRosa. They can step in and reduce the teams fall-off in performance when a high WAR position player goes down. A player such as that is surely worth more than the teams 12th best pitcher.

By: John C

John C — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:25:19 +0000

…..not a normal distribution?!?!??! BUT I TOOK AP STATS, WHATS HAPPENING?!?!?!?!??!

By: Logan

Logan — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:31:42 +0000

Great. Article. Dave.

By: Ashley

Ashley — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:17:21 +0000

It’s a little different, but this strategy works in deep fantasy leagues, too.

I’m in a 30 team league with full minors. I built my roster around depth rather than star talent. It paid off and I made the championship series this year.

Practically speaking, having that depth means not only injury protection, but stabilization of performance. You’re not likely to ride as high as a team with a streaking superstar, but you won’t fall as low as a team with a slumping superstar. At any given point, some of your solid guys will be on while others are off their game.

That adds a secondary benefit in terms of evaluation. As the beginning of a season unfolds, a balanced team built on depth has a truer understanding of where the team is than a team built on one or two studs. If the team is contending or close to it, they can acquire the necessary pieces, increasing cost at the correct time to maximize potential success.

A team built on one or two pieces may be swayed by a unique performance. They may buy heavy based on an unsustainable hot streak and waste cash that way. On the other hand, they may sell off useful pieces necessary for a playoff run based on a cold streak that is bound to turn.

Thus, depth can increase a small market team’s ability to time runs correctly.

Maybe I’m just Captain Obvious…

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:56:22 +0000

In general, the paired, lower variance type of player that I’m suggesting be pursued is just happy to get a job. They’re not in a position to be picky.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:55:42 +0000

I’d argue that almost every major league team wastes at least one roster spot on a fairly useless player – generally a 12th or 13th pitcher that just isn’t needed.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:55:00 +0000

Excel did that on its own. It’s just a graphing artifact. It doesn’t mean anything.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:54:31 +0000

The point is that you can increase your expected wins by minimizing risk as well as maximizing potential, though the latter is the far more traditional strategy.