Age Matters … Sometimes
Here are the lines for two of the top rookie of the year candidates:
Pitcher A: 30 GS, 180.2 IP, 6.2 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 4.07 FIP, 4.6 tRA, 3.94 ERA, 13 wins
Pitcher B: 30 GS, 165 IP, 4.42 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 4.81 FIP, 5.39 tRA, 4.04, 14 wins
Even if you use ERA and wins, it appears Pitcher A had the better season. Factor in the advanced metrics and it’s a pretty open and shut case, right? Wrong. As it turns out Pitcher B is getting all sorts of backing because of his age. He is 20-year-old Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers meanwhile Pitcher A is 26-year-old Jeff Niemann of the Tampa Bay Rays. Both are textbook rookies, yet one gets the hype while the other is getting the shaft. (Note: You can make the case neither is the rightful American League Rookie of the Year too, but this exercise imagines that Elvis Andrus doesn’t exist.)
In 2001, Ichiro was 27-year-old and rightfully won the ROY over 20-year-old CC Sabathia. Age didn’t matter then. A year prior another Seattle Mariner Japanese import won the AL ROY; this time 32-year-old Kazuhiro Sasaki defeated 24-year-old Terrance Long. So voters have passed over the younger options in favor of which they feel had the better season multiple times in the past, even in extreme cases like Sasaki’s.
Maybe it comes down to how you define award achievement. I believe it’s based purely off performance and not true talent levels or projections moving forward. Some may hesitate voting for Garrett Jones in the National League because Andrew McCuthen A) exists and B) is going to be the better player for longer. Under this mindset I suppose the Niemann/Porcello argument makes sense, but what if you throw Andrew Bailey into the mix? He’s 25-years-old, so somewhat old, but far more dominant in the aspects voters will look at – 1.84 ERA, 26 saves, only 4 blown saves, and more than a strikeout per inning.
I don’t really have answers to these questions, but I was hoping one of you did. Should age matter in all cases? Only extreme cases? How much should it make up for lesser performances?
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Who was a bigger bust after their respective ROY runs, Angel Berroa or Terrence Long?
Bobby Crosby has to be in the mix for that.
Well as long as we’re on the A’s theme – Ben Grieve anyone?
interesting, particularly because, unlike some other awards, ROY hasn’t usually had much to do with team record. wonder if it is age.
If Porcello pitches well in the ‘play-in’ game on Tuesday and gets his 15th win, especially in that pressurized situation, I think it will give a lot of momentum to his ROY chances…
I am worried about the workload he has sustained this year affecting him next year – but it doesn’t seem to be hurting him this late into the season – it seems that the Tigers have done OK with managing his time and innings so far…
Tuesday’s game will be a marquee high stakes game that will get all the attention so his performance on that stage could win him the award.
Aren’t the ballots due today?
I don’t think age should be factored in when deciding ROY awards. If you’re a rookie, then you’re a rookie regardless if you’re 32 years old, or 20 years old.
Now if you were to ask me which player has a brighter future, then my answer would be different.
I think that besides age, the fact that Ichiro! and Sasaki were from Japan may have played a role. When an American player doesn’t have his rookie season until he is 26 years old, it could be taken as a sign that he didn’t play well enough in the minors to get a call-up, which is a sign of a possibly inferior player. Whereas a voter would assume that an older Japanese player probably got called up to the Japanese majors at the standard time, and so doesn’t have the same strike against him.
No way should age be factored in. MLB’s a huge jump whether from japan, the minors, college or somewhere else. Rookie of the year doesnt really matter in the end anyway. How many rookie of the years have gone one to compile long and productive careers? When guys like Angel Berroa and Ben Grieves have won it in the last 10 years, then the voting should be taken with grain of salt.
I don’t believe in giving established Japanese pros the ROY award unless there is no other rookie close to him.
So Jackie Robinson would’ve needed to have “no rookie close to him” when he won the first ROY award at, what? 27? 28? He was an “established” Negro League player with its top team, after all….
Yep! That’s me showing you no respect for your heard-it-a-thousand-times-but-it-never-gets-any-smarter post by p-ssing on your Crocs! and that silly little Chihuahua you call an opinion.
Porcelllo’s absolutely insane start when he was first called up where he went 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA has to be factored in. I think Brett Anderson or Andrew Bailey deserves it more than either of these guys but Porcello’s great stretch pushes him over Niemann. His age is just icing on the cake.
I don’t see how you can say that age doesn’t matter when doing ROTY voting. Would Dwight Gooden been considered as big a sensation if he had been 28 when he was first called up? What is more impressive: a 32 year old AAAA journeyman belting 30 dingers right when he finally gets called up or a 19 year old doing it right out of high school?
FWIW, Nolan Reimold is the oldest guy in Baltimore’s outfield. Just thought that was interesting. If he and Brett Gardner had played more they’d have my (imaginary) votes.
Pitcher A: 30 GS, 180.2 IP, 6.2 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 4.07 FIP, 4.6 tRA, 3.94 ERA, 13 wins
Pitcher B: 30 GS, 165 IP, 4.42 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 4.81 FIP, 5.39 tRA, 4.04, 14 wins
Pitcher C: 30 GS, 175.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.69 FIP, 3.68 tRA, 4.06 ERA, 11 wins
I’ll take Pitcher C, please. He’s only 21, or only about 7 months older than Andrus.
RJ, can you explain why Andrus is more deserving?
Player C is Brett Anderson
Holy crap 3.68 tRA.
You didn’t mention the guy who does deserve it. Brett Anderson had the best season by a pretty wide margin.
I don’t understand why you guys love Andrus so much
Yes he is a legit major leaguer, and yes he is valuable
But Anderson is a legit Number TWO starter, or even a Number ONE(.5?) on a contender this year!
I am sorry that A’s sucks, but Anderson is awesome and he deserves ROY more than any other in recent memory.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Anderson won it. I don’t think Porcello really is in the hunt. It’ll either be Anderson, Andrus, or Bailey in my opinion (at the very least, that’s my top 3, probably in that order).
gordon beckham has to be considered…in some way or another. fast tracked to the majors and performed almost immediately. had a rather low .294 babip, as well.
even if he doesn’t come within the top four in voting, i’d bet beckham & anderson have the best careers of the bunch.
I never thought of it, but this article is right, voters probably do take the brightness of a player’s future into account in ROY balloting, at least a little bit. No one wants to get Listached.
Well, since it’s Rookie of the Year, not Prospect of the Year, I think age is irrelevant; it’s which rookie had the best season, nothing more, imho.
And put me down for Anderson, too.
I think age is, and should be, very relevant. Not directly in terms of what we expect out of them in the future, but rather because it’s much more rare/difficult to accomplish a great season as a 20 year old than as a 26 year old. There are plenty of good 26 year old pitchers/hitters in baseball, it’s really not that impressive, all it really means is you’re on a different schedule than your peers and they aren’t rookies while you are. A younger guy, on the other hand, is putting up those stats while his peers are in college, or in the low minors and has no peers who are capable of what he accomplished, and that’s impressive. Of course, indirectly this has a lot to do with how a players future projects, but the logic behind it doesn’t really have anything to do with that aspect.