AL Rookie of the Year: Not Matt Wieters?
We’re happy to introduce Jack Moore as our newest addition to the FanGraphs team. We think you’ll enjoy his contributions here.
October is upon us, and most of our attention is upon the eight playoff teams vying for the Commissioner’s Trophy. However, there are 22 other teams, and there are some notable stories and players from these teams as well.
One of the main stories entering the season was the impending arrival of catcher and savior of the world Matt Wieters. The Orioles delayed Wieters service clock and then called him up this May after amassing a minor league career OPS of over 1.000. Wieters is a switch hitter with impressive power and by all scouting accounts is a plus defensive catcher. Plus, he can steal home from first base.
PECOTA projected Wieters to be an 8 win player this year, which some considered to be a dubious claim, even by WARP3′s questionable calculation of replacment level. CHONE was slightly pessimistic, pegging Wieters as a 3 win player. Wieters did not meet either of those projections. Wieters only accrued 385 PAs this season, and in that span he put up nearly 2 wins. Among AL rookies, this number is overshadowed by the likes of Brett Anderson and Elvis Andrus. Still, this is a number that any organization could appreciate out of a rookie. But this is Matt Wieters, who once hit home runs in AA and AAA… at the same time.
Wieters’ wOBA dropped to .330 this year, a substantial drop from his AAA line of .391 and his low-minors numbrs which ranged from .440 and .490. Both his IsoP and his walk numbers plummeted upon reaching the show. A human .124 ISO and 7.3% walk rate led to a nearly exactly average season at the plate for Wieters. As a catcher, an average hitting season ranks as the 12th best season out of a catcher this year, certainly acceptable out of a rookie, despite the fact that this rookie snacks on batting donuts.
The Orioles have no reason to be alarmed. Wieters still projects to be a fantastic player going forward. Although his 2009 numbers may be sobering, they are only 385 plate appearances. We still have roughly 700 incredible minor league plate appearances to judge him on, and they don’t magically disappear now that he’s in the big leagues. Any player that puts up .440+ wOBAs in the minors and then hits like an average major leaguer in his first season at the age of 23, all while playing catcher, is worthy of accolades and is one of the biggest assets a major league organization could hope for.
Even if he can’t cure world hunger by flexing his left bicep.
41
Matt Wieters was touted as “Joe Mauer with Power.” Evidently only Joe Mauer is Joe Mauer with power.
I found the comparisons amusing. At the same age that Weiters is now, Mauer won his first batting title and put up 6 WAR. People too often don’t take age into account when looking at players. Obviously the PECOTA projections do, but maybe not enough in this case.
I found the large number of Orioles fans jumping off bridges because Weiters wasn’t a rookie savior to be quite amusing.
At this point I think Orioles fans are jumping off bridges simply because they’ve realized they are Orioles fans.
Chuck Norris-esque bits are beneath fangraphs, even if they are in jest.
Pfft. The world needs more levity. Keep the hyperbole coming, Jack.
Yea. Good stuff.
Get over yourself Richie.
They are lifted directly from the (linked) MattWeitersFacts.com, which makes them both apropos and amusing. And I didn’t realize you were in charge of what qualifies as Fangraph writing around here. Does Appelman know you have this job?
Though I’m surprised a supercilious cultural guardian looking down his haughty upraised nose at the writer (and the rest of us) would even admit to knowing who Chuck Norris is.
YOU’RE BENEATH FANGRAPHS, EVEN IF YOU ARE IN JEST
/burrrrrn
Congrats on the new gig Jack. Hope it doesn’t mean you won’t be providing us your awesomeness at BtB as well!
As an O’s fan, I don’t know anyone who was jumping off of any bridges when Wieters didn’t SLG 4.000 immediately. He has done a fine job in my mind, even when he was slumping, when he did hit the ball, his outs were loud and singles long. Throwing out Crawford twice in one game was pretty sweet, and he absolutely smoked the ball in September. Just like in AAA, he struggled at first, then figured it out with a vengeance.
I’d like to point out, since we’re talking about WAR and UZR, that there is no way to measure catcher defense in these stats, aside from the positional adjustment. so any good defensive catcher is at a disadvantage. I would think that this season Wieters would grade out near avg defensively, and any shot at cERA would kill him given the green pitching staff (many of whom he caught in the minors this/last year)
Let me point out that his last 30 or so games his OPS was close to .900 Could be a blip, but you have been warned!
yeah, he looked great in september. sprayed the ball, lots of extras. didn’t look overmatched past the second half, and hits in the three-hole. not the most advanced metrics from me but it’s impressive
If you are going to fret over his numbers dropping from the minors to his 1st major league season, can we at least get a mention of his progression late in the season?
Wow Jack, your first post on here and it’s not about the Brewers? I’m seriously shocked.
Anyways, one thing about Wieters that surprised me was his .359 BABIP. Everybody says he struggled for most of the year, yet with a normal BABIP, he’s floundering around .250. I still think he’ll be a top 5 catcher to start 2011, but he’s got a little more ways to go than I originally thought.
But then again, given Wieters track record and amazing natural ability, maybe a .350ish BABIP is what we should expect out of him on a normal basis…
No, not really. Very few players have a true talent .350 BABIP. Given the fact that Weiters is very young hasn’t had much experience or success in the majors, we should expect him to regress to the mean, not to emmideatly be on of the best hitters in baseball.
Joe Mauer’s Career BABIP is .350. Ichiro’s is .359. I’m going to go ahead and say he’ll regress a little this year.
FanGraph’d
“We still have roughly 700 incredible minor league plate appearances to judge him on, and they don’t magically disappear now that he’s in the big leagues.”
Actually, those minor league numbers do magically disappear into the fog of irrelevance the moment he steps onto a a Major League field. Superb Minor League performance serves only to get one to the Majors, not to predict what hes capable of once he is there. Plenty of minor league phenoms fail miserably in the majors due to the difference in skill sets needed to succeed in either.
Actually, minor league results are fairly predictive of major league production. This has been studied and well-documented; if you have data suggesting otherwise, I urge you to share it.
Everybody will remember the “can’t miss” phenoms who flame out, and the overlooked journeymen who blossom “out of nowhere,” but that ignores the simple fact that most players live up to what their minor league numbers suggest once appropriate adjustments are applied. Though some do take longer to get there than others.
Could you point us to the “minor league results are fairly predictive of major league production” study? Marcel does almost as well on rookies as the projection systems the use minor league results to project rookies by assuming they are going to be average. You might want to read Tango’s stuff on MLE’s over at his site.
It’s funny that before the season it was an absolute lock that AL ROY would be a 2 man race between Wieters and David Price, and people were outraged that they didn’t make opening day rosters. They both look pretty good and have solid futures, but letting them play in AAA for a little while wasn’t the worst idea in the world like some people made it out to be.
I agree that Price and Wieters needed more time in triple-a, and shouldn’t have made the opening day rosters. If there was a player who spent too much time in triple-a this year, it was Tommy Hanson. I have to think that if he’d started the year in the rotation that the Braves could have won the wild card.
I don’t believe Price nor Wieters made the opening day rosters for their teams. Welcome to baseball Rob. I hope you are enjoying your new hobby!
FAIL at reading.
A solid first work.
Means he’ll be just a little bit less expensive in fantasy next year, putting him on my wish list.