Still, I’m not completely sold on the move.

This looks like Girardi doing what numbers-obsessed web-geeks are always accused of: placing TOO MUCH faith in statistics, and ignoring his own eyes. Although, as many have pointed out, whatever stat’s Joe G was looking out weren’t significant enough to warrant pulling a pitcher 2/3 of the way through an inning after he’d recorded two quick outs.

There’s very very little advantage to be gained by switching Robertson for Aceves in that situation. If the roles had been reversed the same would still be true. But there’s value to be lost, in an extra inning game, in burning one more pitcher from your bullpen, and throwing another pitcher into the game cold.

Exactly, “IF the game is about to end.” The game didn’t end and Damon’s arm figures to be a very small factor in if that game ends. Regardless of arm strength, very few outfielders gun down runners at home on possible sac flies, and any hit wins the game anyway. Then in the next inning frame one of your batters is as close to an automatic out as you’ll see (except for pitchers of course) AND you can no longer bring out your best relief pitcher for a second inning. It was one tiny improvement at the cost of a larger future disadvantage. It was stupid.

“Is he over managing? Probably. Is it what cost his team? Not on paper.”

Well yeah, on paper his choices haven’t added up to costing his team a full win, but that’s pretty much impossible over a 7 game series (unless you do something horrific like not play A-rod, Tex and CC or something). But these moves have reduced his team’s chances of winning. Given the probabalistic nature of baseball, one of these choices may just have been the difference. Maybe Matsui hits a HR in his next AB, or Damon gets on and Tex hits a HR in the 11th. No one can say. But taking your best hitters and pitchers out of the game for tiny momentary advantages is dumb.

I am still annoyed that the Yankees blew a winnable game with a move that I still view as inexplicable. With that said, the move was clearly driven by some sort of sabermetric principle that Girardi referenced vaguely. Clearly Girardi is not bright enough to come up with this idea on his own, or to make the infamous “binder,” so that must mean there is someone in the Yankees organization with enough clout to tell the manager what to do, who is pushing this agenda. While Girardi may not know which are the important stats to use, or when to use them, the idea that the Yankees might actually adopt some statistical analysis in their operations thrills me.

Also, I’m pretty sure that Joe Morgan hated the move (I’m heading over to ESPN to read his chat from today, with quite a bit of excitement), so that’ll help me sleep tonight…Unless, of course, he pinch hits for A-Rod tonight because his binder tells him that Freddy Guzman has a better batting average in the 6th inning in a road game on a Tuesday during a waxing moon in an even-numbered month and …..

Is he over managing? Probably. Is it what cost his team? Not on paper.