ALCS Coverage: The Yankees Weapon
Last night was a continuation of the themes presented throughout the ALCS: Angel blunders in the field and on the basepaths, odd decisions on who should be pitching at certain times, Gary Matthews pinch-hitting for Mike Napoli, and the Yankees being carried by a few pitchers. Last night, it was Pettitte and Rivera doing the bulk of the work in shutting down the Angel offense, as the Yankees continued to lean on a very small core of trusted arms to get them to the World Series.
Over the six games played in the series, Yankee pitchers took the hill for 59 innings. 48 of those 59 innings were thrown by CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. The other seven pitchers used by New York combined to throw a total of 10 2/3 innings. 81.4 percent of the series featured one of the Yankees three starters or their relief ace on the hill, a staggeringly high total.
During the regular season, these four combined for 48 percent of all Yankee innings pitched. However, with the advantageous schedule of the ALCS (thanks Fox!), Girardi made the right choice to go with a three man rotation, and the frequent off-days allowed Rivera to pitch any time he was needed. By consolidating the innings into four high quality pitchers, the Yankees went from being a really good team to a juggernaut. The Angels hitters struggled, but given who they were facing 80 percent of the time, it’s surprising that they got any hits at all.
Girardi will have a decision to make regarding whether to try to repeat this strategy against the Phillies. The World Series doesn’t have the same quirky off day between Games Four and Five, so he’d have to be willing to use starters on three days rest in each of Games Four through Seven. He’s almost certainly comfortable with Sabathia pitching on short rest given how well he performed in the ALCS, but will he be willing to take the same risk with Burnett and Pettitte?
I think he should. The upside is really high, while the risk isn’t that significant – if Burnett or Pettitte struggle, you’ll have Chamberlain/Gaudin available out of the pen early, which isn’t that different from just starting them outright.
The three man rotation is a huge boost to the Yankees. It was one of the main reasons they’ve been able to roll through the first two rounds of the playoffs. It won’t be as easy to pull off in the World Series, but it’s still worth trying.
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Yet another annoyance of the playoff schedule. It basically rendered the need for pitching depth moot. I could see a lot of people liking that. Personally I find it a little bit odd since pitching depth is one of the more important things during the regular season.
Yeau this is very annoying. You don’t even need complete gamnes out of guys. There is no risk bringing in the closer in every game (even for more than one inning) since they rarely play three in a row.
My main question is why do these teams carry so many pitchers in the post season? Most teams sort of have 2 bullpens for the regular season – three guys (maybe four if they are lucky) to get high leverage late inning outs in close games and 3 guys for mop up duty. Considering most teams go with 4 starters, that gives them 4 mop up guys since the 5th starter usually is not very good. If you are a fan of that team, you usually don’t want one of those mop up guys out there and certianly not from the 6th inning on in a close game, so what are they doing on the roster? If you need more than 2 mop up guys, the series will be over – especially with off days. Maybe you could add a LOOGY if you have a second one you trust or you could add defensive help, even a pinch runner for all those slow, defensively challenged sluggers that teams employ. But to think that you are going to get meaningful contributions from 11 or 12 pitchers in a seven game series played over 10 days (or more) is just silly.
here is where i disagree: what was stopping Scioscia from doing the same thing???
He could have gone to Lackey in game 4 and then Lackey could have pitched last night ON REGULAR REST.
don’t blame the schedule because one manager had the balls to do something the other manager didn’t.
every team should do this always in the playoffs.
ps. no one forced Scioscia to use his fourth best starter in game 2 either.
Umm. You do realize what we are complaining about is that the schedule allows this to happen, hence your assertions are more in agreement than disagreement. I could care less one way or another that one team smartly realized this was advantageous. I just have trouble getting past the fact we have a 5-man rotation in the regular season and 6-7 man bp yet you can go to the world series predominantly using one reliever and a 3 man rotation.
i’m sorry, i thought you were specifically complaining about this years’ ALCS schedule. didn’t realize you were making a general point.
i’m off on a tangent.
I’ll repeat this again: “the risk isn’t that significant – if Burnett or Pettitte struggle, you’ll have Chamberlain/Gaudin available out of the pen early”
Bringing in Gaudin, a vastly inferior pitcher, down 3-0 in the 3rd? That seems like a very significant risk to me.
If you believe that he’s vastly inferior (I agree), then the risk would be letting him start against a line-up of LHBs.
Oh, trust me, I agree that the Yankees need to go with a 3 man rotation the rest of the way, especially with Gaudin not having started in a few weeks. I was merely taking issue with “Burnett or Pettitte struggle, you’ll have Chamberlain/Gaudin available out of the pen early” not being considered a big risk.
Gaudin against the Phillies is of course a scary prospect. I don’t see the Yankees starting Pettitte (in particular) on short rest, though. I don’t know that his shoulder is up to it. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s got to be at least seriously considered.
There’s no point deciding this now. If Yankees can score early in game 3, maybe they can get Pettitte out after 5 and – hopefully – under 70 pitches. I’d have to think there would be a difference pitching on 3 days rest coming off of 70 pitches as opposed to 110.
True.
but what would they be “saving” his shoulder for? it’s guaranteed to be his last start for 4-5 months.
if there is ever a time to go on 3 days rest, the very last time you need him for 5 months is the time to do it.
Especially when he’s on a one-year contract. Though that sounds exceedingly dickish.
The game of baseball is great on its own, but the war of attrition is what makes it interesting. The ALCS games were entertaining, but in a video game sort of way because Fox turned off “fatigue” in the options menu.
That rain out sure helped too.
So well put, Choo, excellent analogy. I love the Yankees, and it is just amazing watching Rivera pitch, but I have to admit it is rather unfair that he can pitch in 8 of the Yankees 9 games, with 4 of those appearances lasting more than 1 inning. That is not exactly true to the regular season, where even the most well-used reliever can only pitch about every other game.
With that said….wow, Rivera is really good. I feel lucky to have been able to watch him these past 15 years.
It seems that whenever Gary Matthews Jr is referenced in a Fangraphs article, the links and stats to Gary Sr. pop up. Is this glitch on my end or FG?
As someone astutely pointed out the last time this was mentioned, GMS and GMJ are related.
Well yeah, but I think his point is that we’re referencing Jr, not Sr, and Sr’s stats are what pops up. I think it’s humorous, personally.
I understand that, it just funny that they’re related in a sense other than what the section means.
the angels should be used to such a tactic. the white sox used just five pitchers against them in the 2005 ALCS – and only one of those pitchers was a reliever (neal cotts) and that was for 0.2 innings in game one. otherwise, jose contreras (17.1 innings), mark buehrle (9 innings), freddy garcia (9 innings) and jon garland (9 innings) did all the pitching. now that’s a staggeringly high total.
Yankee beat writers and bloggers are all in agreement: Chad Gaudin will start Game 4 unless the Yankees are in a 1-2 or 0-3 hole. Starting Gaudin is not a terrible thing for the Yankees. He allowed 8 runs in 23 innings of work in his last 4 starts during the regular season, all of them wins for New York.
Gaudin was a pretty good pickup by Cashman, 26 years old and possessing a good idea of what works for him. Unlike Joba, Gaudin can locate his pitches. He tends to run out of gas after five or six innings, on his best days.
Judging Gaudin on his last 23 innings of work and ignoring his entire career is not good analysis. He can’t get LH hitters out, and the Phillies have a bunch of them. Starting Gaudin in game four is not a good idea.
i’m with Dave.
This is for you.
I understand you are promoting a 3-man rotation for the Yankees. And I realize 23 innings is a small sample but Girardi’s decision really comes down to this:
1. putting his other 3 starters on 3 days rest from Game 4 on.
2. Starting Gaudin.
3. Starting Joba and losing a bullpen asset.
There is no guarantee the Phillies won’t hit Joba, either. The kid has been all over the place with his location, either as a starter or reliever.
The first 3 games of the series will make the decision for Girardi. If the Yanks hold serve at home, Game 3 becomes a pivotal pitching decision for Charlie Manuel.
Girardi has one pitching dilemma. Manuel can be certain of only Cliff Lee, who is damn good.
Dave, maybe you can examine the Phillies’ pitching problems heading into the Series against a Yankee lineup that has been muffing up RISP opps for the past two weeks.
The colour commentary last night praised Jeter’s defense (it has been better according to most metrics) and said he was definitely gonna win the gold glove (which I wouldn’t doubt given the past history of the award). He has improved, but he certainly wouldn’t be my 1st choice… He wasn’t even the best SS (fielding) last night!
Considering the commentators slap on fistfuls of Driven cologne and ride inflatable Derek Jeter dolls around their booth during commercial breaks, a little Gold Glove talk isn’t so horrible.
The younger Jeter would have caught Figgins’s blooper in the 8th inning and then dove head first into the stands!
I say this as a Yankee fan who loves to hear Red Sox fans bring the face-plant up so many years later.
Derek looked a step slow last night. But Cano had a fantastic game at 2B and bailed out Derek on the topspin grounder that ate him up. Yanks got a little fortunate there when the ball rolled right to Robbie.
I’m surprised that noone raised the issue of the Angels relative lack of plate discipline compared with the Yankees and its affect on pitch counts as well as extra base runners that could have led to the Angels having to go deeper in the bullpen than the Yankees ever did save for the extra inning games.
It was pretty all series that the Angels were up there swinging while the Yankees were being more selective, forcing Angel starters to wrack up high pitch counts.
absolutely. when your pitching staff gives up 9 walks and doesn’t strike anyone out, odds are you’re going to lose when your guys only walk once and strikeout 7 times!
Varying probabilities of rain are being predicted for wednesday (NY, G1), saturday (PHI, G3) and sunday (PHI, G4). Not sure if it’s enough to cancel a game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if weather throws a wrench into the W.S. schedule.
vr, Xei
Yeah, let’s continue building MLB parks without ceilings, that’ll show nature.
The diea of Gaudin pitching to Utley/Howard/Ibanez frightens me. What about piece-mealing either game 4 or 5 with Hughes/Joba/Robertson/Aceves/Bruney (if on the roster)?
I like this idea. If Pettitte gives you distance in Game 3 and they don’t need to use the pen a lot, Ace/Robertson/Hughes/Mo with the LOOGY’s sprinkled in gets you through the game. Matsui, Hinkse (assuming they end this three-catcher BS) and Gardner/Swisher (whoever doesn’t start) would be pinch hitting options, and I’m sure Joe will have an opportunity to order the sac bunt for a pitcher at least once. If Pettitte doesn’t go so far, perhaps you bring back CC on short rest in G4 to get your length, then use the pen to get Game Five, with Burnett and Pettitte pitching 6/7 and CC an option if one falters early. Also, rainouts could make it easier to implement three starters, depending on when they happen.
I think the real question should be why did Mike Scioscia pinch hit for Jeff Mathis and then bring up Maicer Izturis in a critical situation when Mike Napoli (better than both players) waited to come in on defense. Mike Scioscia botched this series pretty badly.
Those that are complaining about the Yankees taking advantage of the off days and not being forced to go to some of their lesser pitchers (as they would in the regular season) are forgetting one thing: the Yankees had the best record in baseball during the regular season, too. By 6 games. So it is not as if they really were lacking in depth substantially more than the other teams they are up against–they just managed their team better in the playoffs. The Twins, for instance, had 4 starters in their rotation who weren’t so much better than Joba. Kaimir, Santana and Joe Saunders were all roughly equivalent to Joba this year. So the Yankees proved they had depth this year during the regular season, but they didn’t feel any need to try to prove it again in the playoffs. Further, Girardi used his depth in the regular season so he could not lean too heavily on his stars, which means that they are well rested now. Pretty well played all around, I think.
“I think he should. The upside is really high, while the risk isn’t that significant – if Burnett or Pettitte struggle, you’ll have Chamberlain/Gaudin available out of the pen early, which isn’t that different from just starting them outright.”
Dave, you are a good analyst and writer, but let me try and explain why that logic is wrong – sort of a gambler’s fallacy. It is like if A-Rod is struggling (i.e., he is “cold”) I’ll move him down to 8th in the order and just move him back to 4th when he starts hitting again. Or, better yet, I’ll move Mathis up to 4th in the order because he is so hot and if he struggles, I’ll just move him down. Therefore, I have not lost anything. Of course you have lost something. Every PA that Mathis has in the 4th spot, whether he does well in that PA or not, you have lost something.
I know you know that, but you are making the same mistake with your, “If they struggle, just take them out and bring in Gaudin or Joba.”
Now, you are right in that the research shows that pitchers don’t lose much when they pitch on 3 days rest in the post-season, but, as you know, that is a selective sample – those pitchers who the manager thinks can handle it. Which would be the case for Petttitte and Burnett if he lets them pitch on 3 days rest of course.
So, it is probably not a big deal to throw them on 3 days rest. But your comment, “If they struggle…” is misguided. We know (and I think you know) that when pitchers struggle, it has little if any predictive value for the rest of the game. So how would taking them out when they struggle have any relevance to the effect of pitching on 3 days rest? It doesn’t. And I wish you wouldn’t perpetuate the myth of “When a pitcher struggles, it means that he doesn’t have his good stuff on that day,” or something like that.
Let’s put it another way: Let’s say that we throw them on 3 days rest. Your contention is that we are not sure that that is correct because they may be .5 runs (per 9 IP) worse in true talent and they may not be. I agree with that. No problem there.
Then you contend that we can mitigate that problem by “taking them out if they struggle.” You are implying that if they struggle early that it means that they likely are indeed significant worse on 3 days rest and if they don’t struggle early, it means that they were not affected (much) by pitching on 3 days rest. Well, that is where you go wrong. That simply isn’t true. We can’t tell a pitcher’s true talent from him “struggling” or not in the early innings. And we certainly can’t tell the difference between a 4.00 pitcher and a 4.50 pitcher, which is what we are trying to do (we are not sure if pitching on 3 days rest makes you .5 runs worse or so).
Here is the likely scenario: We pitch Pettitte on 3 days rest. He is normally a 4.00 pitcher (a few tenths of a run per 9 better than the average starter – BTW, he is not nearly as good as everyone thinks, partly because of that “post-season mystique” nonsense). Let’s say that he has a 50% chance of being a 4.50 pitcher on 3 days rest and a 50% chance of being normal – a 4.00 pitcher. So, we are basically putting a 4.25 pitcher on the mound (which is probably better than Gaudin or Joba, so that’s fine anyway) and we let him pitch the normal number of pitches or innings.
Again, you contend that somehow if we “take him out if he is struggling” we can do better than just letting a 4.25 pitch his normal amount of innings. Here is what happens. Let’s say that half the time he struggles and half the time he doesn’t. At best when he struggles (IMO), there is a 55% chance that he is a 4.50 pitcher and a 45% chance that he is still a 4.00 pitcher who just got unlucky for any one or more of thousands of reasons how a goof pitcher can “struggle.” You will take him out. Assuming that it is correct to take him out if he in indeed a 4.50 pitcher, you are going to be correct 55% of the time, but you are going to be really wrong 45%. If he doesn’t struggle, let’s say that there is a 55% chance he is a 4.00 pitcher in that day and a 45% chance he is a 4.50 pitcher who is just having a good few innings so far (as mediocre pitchers do all the time). So you leave him in and you are making a mistake 45% of the time again.
In total, you are going to make a mistake (by taking him out when he struggles but is really a 4.00 pitcher and by leaving him in when he doesn’t struggle but he is really a 4.50 pitcher) .5 * .45 + .5 * .45, or 45% of the time.
That is not a very good strategy. Especially since as a 4.50 pitcher, he is probably not much worse if at all than Joba or Gaudin, but as a 4.00 pitcher, he is probably a lot better.
The correct strategy is to simply throw Pettitte and Burnette, if you choose to throw them on 3 days rest, for 5 innings or so and then start bringing in your relievers for 1 or 2 innings each, which is ALWAYS the correct strategy when your starter is not an ace, which neither Pettitte nor Burnett are. And that way Girardi has an excuse for taking them out after 5 (they were throwing on 3 days rest).
This whole “take pitchers out when they are struggling and leave them in when they are not, especially the latter, is nonsense, and is one of the biggest mistakes that managers make.
If anyone has the time, please look at all starting pitcher performance in the last X years. Then isolate the ones where the starting pitchers are mediocre or worse – say, career ERA of 4.50 or worse. Then look at all games where they pitched well for 6 innings (say gave up 2 runs or less) and were allowed to continue. The assumption is that their pitch counts are not that high and the manager things they were “pitching well” and therefore will continue to pitch well.
Now, we know that a manger can take out an otherwise mediocre starter after 6 innings even if he is pitching well and replace him with a decent reliever for an inning or two with an ERA of around 3.50. There are plenty of relievers like that. It’s not like you have to find a set-up guy or closer for that kind of ERA.
OK, since in our research sample we have games where the manager decides that staying with the starter is the best course of action. He thinks that the starter, since he is pitching great, is going to pitch better than any reliever, otherwise why let him continue to pitch. You can even only look at close games if you want (say a difference of 3 runs or less).
Now, yes I know there may be other considerations. He may want to boost the starters ego or “stretch out” his outing. He may want to rest the pen. He may have no reliever available, or something like that. But, by and large, and in most cases, I think the assumption by the manager is that the pitcher is throwing well today, even though he is normally a mediocre or worse pitcher. After all, isn’t that what everyone thinks? Even sabermetric analyst David Cameron said, “Just take them out if they are struggling,” which is the converse of, “Leave them in if they are pitching well.”
OK, back to the research. So now, all we have to do is look at the ERA of all those pitchers in the 7th or later innings. Surely it is better than or equal to the easy 3.50 he can get from just about any decent reliever for an inning or so. And SURELY it is better than our group of pitchers’ career ERA’s. After all, they are “pitching well” and that is why we left them in. If a mediocre or worse pitchers “struggles” through the first 6 innings, he will likely be taken out, right?
So, let’s see what that ERA looks like in the 7th and later innings? Anyone up to this research project? That should answer once and for all whether it is correct to leave in a pitcher who is not a great starter if he is “pitching well,” right? If it is correct, then when managers actually leave them in, we should see an ERA which is considerably lower than their typical career ERA’s, right and certainly better than a halfway decent reliever.
I’ll say this also: If we find that those pitchers’ ERA in the 7th inning and later is not even better than a BAD short reliever (4.50 ERA), then we are really in trouble, right? That would be a horrible mistake by a manager – to eschew even a bad reliever for a mediocre or worse starter who has been pitching well, especially in a close game. Yet managers do that all the time. All the time. Let’s see if they are making an error and if yes, how egregious that error is.
One more thing if anyone is up to this research (which is not that hard with retrosheet data). Since starters are more likely to have pitches well for 6 innings against bad offensive teams, in pitcher’s parks on cold days with the wind blowing in, you have to make some adjustments for that. The best way would be to park adjust the ERA’s in the 7th inning and later sample and to tally the total offense of all the teams pitched against. For example, let’s say that we found an ERA of 4.00 in the 7th and later innings. And let’s say that the teams that these pitchers faced in these games (where they pitched well for 6 and were allowed to continue) had an average offense of 4.50 runs per game whereas the average team in the league was 4.75, we would have to adjust that 4.00 ERA by multiplying it by 4.75/4.50.
could you elaborate on this?
i keed, i keed.
Holy crap! A Wild Latchman appears!
When I post a comment on this blog or on Rob Neyer’s, I am often a rally killer…
I’m not sure if that’s something to be proud of.