Comments on: ALCS Preview: Yankees/Angels

By: Daniel

Daniel — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 00:57:25 +0000

Weaver (career) ERA home: 3.27 ERA road: 4.17;
Saunders (career) ERA home: 4.43 ERA road: 3.97

Weaver (career) OPS against home: .675 OPSa road: .750
Saunders (career) OPSa home: .768 OPSa road: .731

Also, Saunders was better than Weaver last year, and has been just as good this year after he got back from the DL. Given those splits and the fact that Weaver just isn’t “significantly better than Saunders” (better, but not at all significant at this point in their careers), I don’t see how this is a bad decision.

And I didn’t even mention GB/FB ratio there. Score another one for Saunders. It makes a heck of a lot of sense to save Weaver for game 3 in Anaheim Stadium.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 00:21:35 +0000

Because Cano, Matsui and Damon don’t have particularly large career splits, and Weaver is significantly better than Saunders.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:36:46 +0000

Well, yeah, winning game 1 would be nice, but why do you think Saunders has less chance of winning game 2 than Weaver? He’ll have the platoon advantage against Cano, Matsui, and Damon, lefties have the advantage in Yankee Stadium, he’s got a much better GB/FB ratio (and the Angels have a good defense), and he’s been very good since he got back from the DL in August. As for Kazmir, the way he looked against Boston is not encouraging and his K rate has been way down the last few games (probably as a result of lower fastball velo).

At WORST, I’d say it’s a toss up between the three, but all the factors seem to indicate that this is the best way to go.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:22:22 +0000

Wow. Angels better hope they win Game One.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:11:35 +0000

Looks like it will be Saunders in game 2

http://anaheim.angels.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers.jsp?c_id=ana

That’s not concrete or anything, but I don’t know why they would put it up if that’s not the plan.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:28:02 +0000

Good point, but Saunders isn’t “soft-tossing.” With Kazmir’s fastball losing velocity (on TBS’s amped up gun, he should have been sitting 94 – 96, instead of 91 – 93), his fastball velocity is about the same as Saunders. The Angels have one of the best defenses in the league, which is why Saunders has been successful for the times during the last couple of seasons when he hasn’t been hurt.

At full health, I take Kazmir over Saunders. But I think Kazmir is either tiring or feeling some effects of the injury he had earlier this year. His K rate has been way down the last few starts.

By: Logan

Logan — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:50:37 +0000

“the Yankees essentially got a bye into the ALCS”

Except not at all. The Twins came an inning away from going back to the dome tied, and then who knows how things would have unfolded. C’mon Dave, you’re the hyperbole nazi, it was definitely a mismatch, but even a 5 game series with an inferior team holds a reasonable chance of elimination. A bye is an assured success.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:37:48 +0000

I would absolutely love for the Yanks to face the soft-tossing lefty with the 1.58 K/BB and the 5.17 FIP extra times. Saunders’ GB/FB is higher, yes, but he allows many more balls to be put into play, and the non-contact batters aren’t retired at anywhere near an acceptable rate.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:27:53 +0000

Has Scioscia really set his rotation for the first three games? I know Lackey’s going game 1, but I haven’t heard him reveal the next two starters.

I know this sounds crazy, but if I’m Scioscia, I start Saunders in game 2. Why? First, to get Weaver into Anaheim Stadium for his first start of the series (yeah he would have to pitch in NY in game 6, but you don’t know if you’ll have to play that game). Weaver is a notorious fly ball pitcher. He’s been effective this year, but I don’t know if the Angels want him pitching in home run central if they can avoid it.

Why Saunders over Kazmir? Saunders is a much better groundball pitcher. And it’s not like Kazmir is that much of a better pitcher, period, at this point. Both struggled early in the season, both had time on the DL, both came back and did well. But Kazmir’s velocity was down a couple MPH in Boston, and that’s scary. When you factor in the GB/FB ratio, I think Saunders is the way to go. Plus I think Kazmir would be more effective out of the bullpen than Saunders (if Scioscia went with a 3-man rotation) where he might be able to air it out for a couple innings and get a couple strikeouts.

3-man rotation: Lackey-Saunders-Weaver-Lackey-Saunders-Weaver-Lackey
4-man: Lackey-Saunders-Weaver-Kazmir-Lackey-Saunders-Kazmir/Weaver

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:09:05 +0000

Relative to the best-of-five LDS, it’s not. Relative to the 162-game season that established the Yanks as a little better than the Angels, it absolutely is.