ALDS Coverage: Papelbon Blows Save
Sometimes unlikely results are the sweetest. For Boston, the script played out like so many times in the past. Jonathan Papelbon entered, prevented further damage, and returned in the ninth to finish the game and force at least one more game.
Trailing by two, the Angels were scheduled to send Maicer Izturis (.359 OBP this season), Mike Napoli (.350), and Erick Aybar (.353) to the dish. Mike Scioscia did Boston a favor by pinch-hitting for Napoli with the ever so useless Gary Matthews Jr., who quickly recorded out number two. Aybar then came up and singled on a 0-2 fastball. Keep that pitch type in mind, because it’ll come up again, and again, and once more … well 20-something times more, but you knew that.
Eventually things snowball and Vladimir Guerrero ends up singling in the tying and go-ahead run after an intentional walk to Torii Hunter. Enter Hideki Okajima, exit Boston and Papelbon with his -.797 WPA. It looked like this:
The three main talking points of the ninth inning will be:
1. Jonathan Papelbon’s pitch selection
2. Jacoby Ellsbury’s positioning
3. Terry Francona’s patience
Gameday classifies 28 pitches from Papelbon as fastballs. Those four non-fastballs each came well after a run of 26 straight fastballs. Papelbon didn’t throw a pitch that went slower than 90 miles per hour until pitch 27. His final pitch of the afternoon would of course be a fastball and would result in the lead changing hands. Papelbon used said fastball a career high amount of the time despite the pitch having a career low in run value. It’s fair to say opposing teams should look fastball against Papelbon. To be fair, Guerrero had a negative value against fastballs throughout the regular season as well. It comes down to simple game theory. Eventually Papelbon has to throw a non-fastball; otherwise coaches are going to clue the batters in to only look fastballs. Likewise, he has to throw consecutive fastballs or face a similar fate in predictability. Maybe you can argue 26 in a row was overkill, and from an outcome-based perspective you’re absolutely correct. Honestly, weren’t you a little surprised when he continued pumping fastballs?
This has the early vote for storyline most likely to be overlooked. Guerrero’s single plated two in part because Ellsbury was playing deep. Bobby Abreu isn’t the fastest runner in the world and Ellsbury doesn’t have a rocket launcher, but would the Angels have risked sending Abreu if Ellsbury was playing in his normal spot? Further, do the Sox even gain anything by playing Ellsbury deeper than normal? Maybe he stops a double from turning into a triple, but at this point in the game preserving the lead – or at worst a tie – seems more important than preventing the third run from scoring.
Some might suggest that today goes down as Francona’s Grady Little moment. Hs job is and should be safe, but the stubbornness displayed by sticking with Papelbon will probably be critiqued by hindsight artists. The idea of forecasting starting pitchers and their “sharpness” through the first nine batters faced was summed up by saying you couldn’t tell if a pitcher was on based on the first nine, but you could tell if they were off. Outside of the first batter he faced, Papelbon looked fine, my prediction is that those outs won’t stop people from calling for Okajima to face Abreu.
More analysis on the Sox elimination and next steps tomorrow.
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“More analysis on the Sox elimination and next steps tomorrow.”
Thank god. Its so hard to find Red Sox coverage anywhere.
ALDS Coverage: Papelbon Blows
Sounds about right.
I was yelling at the tv hoping Papelbon would throw SOMETHING off-speed, but no.
It did look like Ellsbury was playing pretty deep. A ball hit in that spot on the field is not an automatic hit by any means.
Consider the point of playing deep in a situation that almost assuredly called for a short outfield. The only reason to play deep was to prevent an extra-base hit that could have plated three instead of two (given that the runners will move on contact with two outs, even Bobby Abreu would probably score from second on a hit). The third runner, Hunter, was put on due to an unnecessary intentional walk, figured to be done because Hunter is 3-for-5 career versus Papelbon while Guerrero is 1-for-11. So one of the few reasons to play deep was to prevent a runner from scoring who got on as a result of a decision based on small sample sizes. This set of events was like a storm of poor judgment by everyone involved.
I thought that Francona should have stuck with Wagner to finish the 8th.
Note: Papelbon did not prevent further damage when he entered in the 8th inning, as he immediately allowed two inherited runners to score.
If it is a Grady Little moment, it is because of the IBB and not leaving Papelbon in the game. If I were John Henry or Epstein, I would be furious (at the IBB). Atrocious decision for obvious reasons. If any team in baseball should know that pitcher/batter matchups have little to no predictability, it should be the Red Sox.
Let’s imagine for a second that they did have some predictability. No rational manager is going to give them THAT much weight, right, over and above a player’s career numbers, right? Especially in 10 PA for one of them and 5 for the other. Guerrero has a projected OBA of around .360 I think. Hunter has a BA of around .280 (and that’s not even considering the fact that there is an extra runner on base that could score after the IBB). Does Francona honestly think that the difference between Guererro and Hunter in that spot is 80 points of OBA?
Just a horrible IBB. One of he worst you will ever see in a big game. If I am in charge of the Sox, that would be grounds for an automatic firing of Francona, as much as I like him generally.
Actually, it wasn’t that bad of a move.
As an Angel fan I thought they had a shot with Hunter, but when he got the IBB I thought, “Damn, thats smart”. Vlad has dropped off considerably, especially when it comes to catching up to fastballs.
The IBB was a good idea. The execution, by letting Vlad get extended, was the problem.
I don’t know, I think it’s a defensible move. Vlad has been awful against anybody with a decent fastball. His bat has slowed perceptibly. And in this situation, Hunter’s run is almost meaningless. You have a choice – face Hunter or Vlad. Facing Vlad was the better bet, and not because of their past against Papelbon. Hunter is a better hitter against good fastballs.
Oh, and yes, of course Ellsbury should be playing more shallow than normal. The run that makes it 6-5 as opposed to 5-5 is worth more than the run that makes it 7-5 as opposed to 6-5. IOW, trying to prevent the run from scoring on second base is more important that preventing a few extra extra base hits. That being said, Abreu scores from second easily regardless of where Ellsbury was playing. The single was to RC, and Ellsbury has an average arm at best (I think).
Just as Kubel was playing too deep versus Texeira in the 9th inning on Friday night.
I’ll have to disagree with the notion that Abreu scores regardless, as the ball was not hit to right-center. It was hit to dead center and landed not too far in front of Ellsbury. Were he playing more shallow, there is a good chance he would have caught the ball and game ovah.
9.16 leverage on that pitch to Vlad. 9.16. And .590 WPA for him when he hits it.
The Sawk Nation neuroses are never far from the surface, even after those two World Series wins. And just as tedious as they were before 2004. It’s going to be long winter…
That’s the spirit!
You obviously pitch to Vlad because you can get him to chase balls. The trick is…don’t throw the first pitch right down Broadway.
and I doubt Oki was warm enough to go after Abreu.
I have to admit, I was quite gleeful when I saw that collapse. Papelbon is incredibly annoying.
“Honestly, weren’t you a little surprised when he continued pumping fastballs”
You wouldn’t be if you’d watched him all year. Papelbon’s human performance all year was apparently some bad foreshadowing.
Everybody’s entitled to a second chance. As long as they learned something from the first one. Welcome back.
This dssd character, on the other hand….
At least Papelbon only blew one save. Nathan (effectively) blew two in a row. (Yeah, it wasn’t technically a blown save in game three but it was a “blow the game out of reach.”)
That’s completely on Gardenhire. You’ve got one of the best two or three relievers in baseball sitting out there in the bullpen, you desperately need to keep the deficit at one to have any chance of prolonging your season, you’re facing the heart of a juggernaut batting order… and you start off with two LOOGYs sandwiching Jon Rauch?! Like, fuck the heck?* By the time Nathan came in, with bases loaded and one out, his manager had already set him up to fail. Yeah, he gave up the hit to Posada, but Kubel then demonstrated beyond all question of a doubt why he doesn’t belong near leather. Pinning things on Nathan is incredibly unfair to him.
*Copyright FJM, 2005
Yeah, I don’t know what Gardenhire was thinking there. Nathan should have started the inning. That said, he had a very bad series.
WTF?
ALDS Coverage: Papelbon Blows
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy