Comments on: ALDS Coverage: Possibly Lucky Lackey (and Other Notes)

By: sam

sam — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 08:07:07 +0000

donger?

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 23:13:17 +0000

Often times when a player “really plays well” it doesn’t actually show up in the statsheet. I’m not talking about intangibles of course, but about the process and not the results.

Earlier this year, Felix had a game where he struck out like 14 hitters and got 15 grounders. I think Dave had an article on it a few weeks ago. Yet he gave up 4 runs, so it wasn’t a “good” start or whatever.

There are games when hitters foul off some really good pitches and hit the balls right at people. They go 0-4 with a walk, and people say “meh”.

By: Carson Cistulli

Carson Cistulli — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:14:57 +0000

And Matthew, just to continue your point, I think the reason it’s important to say “he was only alright” sometimes is so that, when a guy really plays well, it’s that much more significant.

By: Carson Cistulli

Carson Cistulli — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:08:55 +0000

Rapscallion, you just reminded me! I wanted to mention small sample size in my article expressly so that I could link to this entry from the Rogue Baseball Index.

By: Matthew Monagle

Matthew Monagle — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:03:49 +0000

I don’t think the intent was to analyze Lackey in general – just to specifically show that the whole isn’t the sum of the parts. I think it would be interesting to have a database of outings and percentages (GB, LD, K/BB) and see how much variance there is in runs allowed. Like, in outings where a pitcher had a 14% K rate, 37% groundball rate, and 18% line drive rate, what is the range of runs allowed?

Or maybe there already is something like that. I can’t keep up with you crazy kids and your newfangled databases.

At any rate, I just love any time Fangraphs analyzes a player/game that ESPN gushes about, and responds with an overwhelming, “Meh, he was alright.”

By: rapscallioncc

rapscallioncc — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:53:02 +0000

Careful about extrapolating the batted-ball profile from one start. That’s a pretty small sample size to draw conclusions from. It’s not necessarily unusual for a pitcher to be unharmed by 5 line drives…just too small a sample size.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:51:06 +0000

Just as an fyi, Scioscia has already announced that Napoli will start tonight and game 3 in Boston.

Thanks for the analysis. It certainly did look like Lackey got a bit fortunate with some of those line drives. I remember 4 distinctly, two each that were hit to Abreu and Rivera. He didn’t give up any particularly long fly balls, though.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:34:29 +0000

How many flyballs even came close to being homers? I didn’t see the whole game.