ALDS Preview: Los Angeles Angels
This postseason marks the third straight year (and fourth in six years) that Los Angeles of Anaheim will face Boston in the ALDS. Even the most rational of Angels fans will feel some dread at the prospect, I assume: L.A.’s record in those three previous match-ups is 1-9. And while the run differential over that same time frame (29 v 62)* doesn’t inspire great confidence either, it’s unlikely that such lopsided results are the product of anything but the random variation of a small sample size. By comparison, the season series between the two was 5-4 in favor of the Halos, who outscored the Sox by a slight margin (44 v 40).
*An interesting note about this: of those 62 runs Boston has scored over 10 games, 14 of them (almost a quarter) were scored in the ninth inning or later.
In terms of results, this year’s iteration of the Angels isn’t so different from the other three teams to face Boston, as their Pythagorean Wins bear out:
YR Pyth W 2009 92 2008 88 2007 90 2004 91
What is different is the unfamiliar means by which the Angels have reached this rather familiar end. While the previous versions have had a reputation for excellent pitching, defense, and baserunning, this year’s team has bent, if not entirely broken, that mold.
Offensively, the Angels are still running a lot. Their 148 stolen bases are good for third in the majors this year, after having finished second, second, and first, respectively, in 2008, 2007, and 2004. And their defense, according to UZR, is actually better than before: they rank 11th in that metric, versus ranks of 16, 16, and 18 in 2008, 2007, 2004.
As for their hitting prowess, many readers will remember in August when L.A. fielded a lineup consisting entirely of .300 hitters. While we, the Aristocrats of Baseballing Analysis, understand that batting average isn’t necessarily the best measure of offensive production, it’s an important part of getting on base.
Nor is this a team of Willie Keelers. Regard:
YR wOBA Lg Rank BB% ISO LD% FB% HR/FB 2009 0.346 3 8.9 % 0.156 18.8 0.370 0.103 2008 0.325 18 8.0 % 0.145 18.0 0.355 0.098 2007 0.332 14 8.4 % 0.133 17.1 0.358 0.073 2004 0.335 16 7.3 % 0.147 19.2 0.358 0.096
The numbers are up across the board, really. More walks, more line drives (with the exception of ’04), more fly balls, and more fly balls leaving the yard.
The improvement is the result mostly of a key addition (Bobby Abreu and his .390 OBP), a career year (Torii Hunter matched his career high in wRAA — set in 2002 — in ca. 100 fewer PAs), and a couple of break-out seasons by younger players (Kendry Morales and Erick Aybar). More PAs for Mike Napoli — and fewer for Jeff Mathis — hasn’t hurt, either.
Some other things that might surprise you about the Angels offensive renaissance:
*Kendry Morales is really good. His wOBA of .382 (on the strength of .306/.355/.569 line) was good for 32nd in the majors.
*Chone Figgins led the AL in walks with 101.
*Despite being a little funny-figured, Bobby Abreu still steals bases. He was 30/38 this year.
Oddly, as the Halos batting has reached new levels, pitching has faltered. Regard (S Rank = Starters FIP Rank / R Rank = Relievers FIP Rank):
YR FIP Rank S Rank R Rank 2009 4.45 21 21 16 2008 4.12 8 10 9 2007 4.10 4 2 16 2006 4.09 5 15 1
This’ll be the first of these four teams to enter the postseason with a team FIP outside the majors’ top ten. And the mediocrity has been spread evenly across the starters and relievers, it seems.
Reasons? There are a few. For one, both John Lackey and Ervin Santana began the year on the DL. And while Lackey has put up more or less his usual rate stats, Santana has posted a 5.02 FIP (5.57 tRA) after last year’s 3.30 FIP (3.66 tRA).
In the bullpen, the departure of Francisco Rodriguez has hurt, as the Angels have traded in his 3.22 FIP from last year for Brian Fuentes‘ 4.42 FIP this year. Also painful have been the sub-par performances of both Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields, the latter of whom is broken after years of dependable, high-leverage contributions.
29
I seriously cannot believe Chone Figgins led the AL in walks.
I mean I know he had 729 PA’s but…Chone Figgins. Scraptabulousnessityful Chone Figgins, leading the AL in “team killing” walks.
And you have to think that’s a result of his fouling pitches off; I can’t imagine that pitchers would be happy to walk a relatively powerless hitter with very good speed.
Of course, when you’re not a power threat like Figgins, it’s very obvious that the high walk rate is a direct result of a skill set. Ichiro uses his contact ability to put the ball in play and beat it out, Figgins seems to use it to fend a tough pitch off and get the count to ball four. Reaching first is obviously valuable no matter who the hitter is, but for a guy like Figgins, even more so.
Worries me a little bit in the series vs. Boston.
Just checked it out.
Figgins has the 4th lowest out of zone swing rate at 14.9%. Better than JD Drew and Bobby Abreu. Only behind Luis Castillo, Marco Scutaro, and Nick Johnson. Obviously a good way to be effective is to not swing as bad pitches, something that Figgins does very well.
Not swinging at the 4th ball with a full count takes a lot of discipline and a great eye (and a lot of confidence in that eye); it’s a relatively rare skill even in the majors.
It seems Figgins, whom most of us are likely to bracket, mentally, as “a bit better than David Eckstein”- has actually become a rather good player.
Or maybe I’m just extrapolating from my own biases, and general annoyance with all things Angel.
Mr Cameron noted this a couple of months ago.
He’s a good player. I’m having trouble believing he’s this good, however. He’s going to be a free agent, and will be getting a big payday, but will he go on to earn it?
Is Figgins an example of a MLB player who has significantly improved his performance via “teaching” rather than talent? He was not this good in previous years, but has shown steady improvement and truly made himself a valuable player by altering his approach and strategy.
Or he’s having one of those “career years” that happen sometimes. This year doesn’t look like the continuation of steady evolution; it looks more like a freak mutation. And in his walk year (amazing!) It’s entirely possible he will continue to be this good, but I wouldn’t want to be the GM giving him a contract that has that assumption priced into it. I really hope he keeps it up, but I’m expecting some regression back to the ~3 WAR guy he’s averaged in the past, not the 6 WAR guy he has been this season.
I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on this as a “career year.” His walk rate has climbed steadily, up to 14% this season. Last year it was at 12%, and in his “lucky year” it was at 10%. If all else remains the same and he walks around 12%, he could be something like a .345 wOBA (just a guess, not a projection), which is worth a good 10 runs above average. If he stays a +10 defender as well, he’s a 4.6 WAR player, pretty good stuff.
Slap hitters everywhere could learn a thing or two from Figgins. This is the way you succeed with no power in the majors.
Fair enough, but that’s 4.6 WAR. He’s 6 WAR this year. I’d say being ~30% better than your real talent (rather than 100%) still qualifies as a “career year.”
Tremendous analysis. Great read. One nit to pick: The Angels, in my opinion should be called either The Angels or Halos or The Anaheims (my favorite).
To use Los Angeles – or even “LA” – as part of the team name is way too corporate, not to mention absurd. Although, I do like The Brooklyn Dodgers of Los Angeles. But I’m old-school.
Some friends of mine like the O.C. Angels. I like that too. The interlocking O/C would look great on the caps.
Enough of ephemera. Keep up the great gleaning of useful stats. Fun to see.
Scott Shields is not done due to ineffectiveness, he is done because of injury. You cant claim hes washed up because of 22 innings of injury plagued pitching
There’s one other reason to cheer the Angels.
Holy wow that sounds awful.
Modern medicine really is insane.
Yeah, not for the squeamish, but what an amazing recovery. And man, that doctor…
You think athletes have skills and endurance? You think a starter goes deep into a game? You think a closer has nerves of steel?
Unfortunately for the Angels Scioscia is going to give away some of those Napoli ABs to Mathis. Boston has got to love that.