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	<title>Comments on: An Extension for Verlander</title>
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		<title>By: CircleChange11</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-128358</link>
		<dc:creator>CircleChange11</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 21:57:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-128358</guid>
		<description>Actually, some were saying that Prior was an injury risk because he raises both elbows above his shoulders after hand separation (inverted W), but Prior was a &quot;Tom House Student&quot; and broadcasters just repeated what House was saying about Prior.

Prior&#039;s &quot;smoothness&quot; of delivery was also a major contributing factor the idea that he had perfect mechanics.

We learned a lot about mechanics from the Prior situation.

Verlander&#039;s only &quot;flaw&quot; is that he lands on his heel (softly, though) as a result of slightly opening his hips early. This is not really that big of a deal because it does not create timing problems where he drags his arm (like Harden does). Ironically, opening your hips early is supposed to lead to reduced velocity ... Verlander averaged 95.5 mph last year on his FB.

Verlander also features a curve instead of a slider. Good for his elbow.

I am not convinced that taller, longer pitchers like Verlander can land as closed as more robust guys like Schilling and Clemens from a simple leverage standpoint. So, i don;t view his slight heel landing as a major thing.

There was a video study done of Verlander&#039;s 2-seamer which is outstanding. Pitchers accomplish this with finger pressure on their index finger or pronated their hand at release. Verlander&#039;s thumb points &quot;straight down&quot; on this pitch instead of &quot;toward 3rd base&quot; like some other RHPs do. Again, good for his elbow.

Just because &quot;some&quot; said that Prior had perfect mechanics does not mean that the label cannot generally apply to some pitcher. Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Jeff Suppan, etc.

Of the modern crop ... Verlander and Hernandez are both viewed as having very good mechanics. I think the negatives of Velrander have more to do with his height as he is copmpared to pitchers with different body types (bottom heavy) allowing them to pitch more with their legs. Tall, long guys generally do not hold a very good and balanced position when &quot;compact&quot;. It&#039;s a leverage thing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, some were saying that Prior was an injury risk because he raises both elbows above his shoulders after hand separation (inverted W), but Prior was a &#8220;Tom House Student&#8221; and broadcasters just repeated what House was saying about Prior.</p>
<p>Prior&#8217;s &#8220;smoothness&#8221; of delivery was also a major contributing factor the idea that he had perfect mechanics.</p>
<p>We learned a lot about mechanics from the Prior situation.</p>
<p>Verlander&#8217;s only &#8220;flaw&#8221; is that he lands on his heel (softly, though) as a result of slightly opening his hips early. This is not really that big of a deal because it does not create timing problems where he drags his arm (like Harden does). Ironically, opening your hips early is supposed to lead to reduced velocity &#8230; Verlander averaged 95.5 mph last year on his FB.</p>
<p>Verlander also features a curve instead of a slider. Good for his elbow.</p>
<p>I am not convinced that taller, longer pitchers like Verlander can land as closed as more robust guys like Schilling and Clemens from a simple leverage standpoint. So, i don;t view his slight heel landing as a major thing.</p>
<p>There was a video study done of Verlander&#8217;s 2-seamer which is outstanding. Pitchers accomplish this with finger pressure on their index finger or pronated their hand at release. Verlander&#8217;s thumb points &#8220;straight down&#8221; on this pitch instead of &#8220;toward 3rd base&#8221; like some other RHPs do. Again, good for his elbow.</p>
<p>Just because &#8220;some&#8221; said that Prior had perfect mechanics does not mean that the label cannot generally apply to some pitcher. Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Jeff Suppan, etc.</p>
<p>Of the modern crop &#8230; Verlander and Hernandez are both viewed as having very good mechanics. I think the negatives of Velrander have more to do with his height as he is copmpared to pitchers with different body types (bottom heavy) allowing them to pitch more with their legs. Tall, long guys generally do not hold a very good and balanced position when &#8220;compact&#8221;. It&#8217;s a leverage thing.</p>
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		<title>By: Scottwood</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-128318</link>
		<dc:creator>Scottwood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 17:45:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-128318</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not going to keep debating this b/c I&#039;ve already laid out the stats and several others have, as well.  But, Verlander&#039;s peripheral stats are certainly just as good as King Felix, and I don&#039;t know why you continue to suggest they are not.  He has the better K/BB ratio and WAR over the last 3 years.  Hernandez is a ground ball pitcher and that gives him some added value, but that is less important than getting K&#039;s.  And, Verlander has a career BABIP and OPS against on fly balls well below expected league average.  He also has suppressed his HR/FB ratio for 4 straight years.  We need a little more data on him to see where his established baseline is, but if this holds true, then being a fly ball pitcher won&#039;t hurt him as much as it hurts other pitchers.  His fly balls don&#039;t appear to cause as much damage as it does for most other pitchers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not going to keep debating this b/c I&#8217;ve already laid out the stats and several others have, as well.  But, Verlander&#8217;s peripheral stats are certainly just as good as King Felix, and I don&#8217;t know why you continue to suggest they are not.  He has the better K/BB ratio and WAR over the last 3 years.  Hernandez is a ground ball pitcher and that gives him some added value, but that is less important than getting K&#8217;s.  And, Verlander has a career BABIP and OPS against on fly balls well below expected league average.  He also has suppressed his HR/FB ratio for 4 straight years.  We need a little more data on him to see where his established baseline is, but if this holds true, then being a fly ball pitcher won&#8217;t hurt him as much as it hurts other pitchers.  His fly balls don&#8217;t appear to cause as much damage as it does for most other pitchers.</p>
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		<title>By: David MVP Eckstein</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-128234</link>
		<dc:creator>David MVP Eckstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 02:06:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-128234</guid>
		<description>Even if theres no talent disparity, which there is, we shouldnt measure contribution based on theoretical values. FIP is a better predictor of future ERA, but ERA measures the actual results. FIP provides the baseline, then you figure out from there where the actual results will lie based on the secondary things. the dimensions and defense are not Verlanders fault, but they will have effect. Felix will end up allowing less runs b/w his skill, the park and defense, which is more important than &quot;verlander has just as good peripherals&quot; (which he really doesnt)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even if theres no talent disparity, which there is, we shouldnt measure contribution based on theoretical values. FIP is a better predictor of future ERA, but ERA measures the actual results. FIP provides the baseline, then you figure out from there where the actual results will lie based on the secondary things. the dimensions and defense are not Verlanders fault, but they will have effect. Felix will end up allowing less runs b/w his skill, the park and defense, which is more important than &#8220;verlander has just as good peripherals&#8221; (which he really doesnt)</p>
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		<title>By: Scottwood</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-128106</link>
		<dc:creator>Scottwood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:01:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-128106</guid>
		<description>I never said Verlander would be better in 2010 or that he deserved a higher contract.  I also didn&#039;t look at 1 year of &quot;skewed&quot; data.  I looked at each player&#039;s performance the last 3 years.

And, when one evaluates pitchers, I think its best to try to isolate them from their environment.  Felix will have the better defense and will pitch in a pitcher&#039;s park.  I don&#039;t see how that should factor into a player&#039;s value, though.  Verlander can&#039;t control his park factors or the quality of the defensive players behind him.  Why should he be penalized for that?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I never said Verlander would be better in 2010 or that he deserved a higher contract.  I also didn&#8217;t look at 1 year of &#8220;skewed&#8221; data.  I looked at each player&#8217;s performance the last 3 years.</p>
<p>And, when one evaluates pitchers, I think its best to try to isolate them from their environment.  Felix will have the better defense and will pitch in a pitcher&#8217;s park.  I don&#8217;t see how that should factor into a player&#8217;s value, though.  Verlander can&#8217;t control his park factors or the quality of the defensive players behind him.  Why should he be penalized for that?</p>
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		<title>By: David MVP Eckstein</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127959</link>
		<dc:creator>David MVP Eckstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:14:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127959</guid>
		<description>Nathaniel--

I realize what you are trying to get at in the sense of superficial stats, but im trying to mainly look at the underlying stuff. What I&#039;m trying to say is Felix is a better pitcher in terms of luck-neutral context, while he&#039;s also in the more favorable environment.

To scottwood, I say you need to not look @ the 1-season skewed data. Yes, Verlander was better in 2009, but can you say he will be better than felix in &#039;10? I can&#039;t. The GB rate and BB rate favor Hernandez, while the defense will only make the superficial stats that much prettier. I think both are high quality arms, but verlander is on a defense that lost 3 of its top 5 defenders in the lg avg park, while Hernandez is on a team w/ the best defense in baseball and a bottom ten runs creation park. Plus, verlander&#039;s 5 year deal covers his age 27-32 years, while felix&#039;s covers the ages 24-29 seasons. Felix has more upside, more consistency, more success and is younger. It seems like he deserves the higher payout</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nathaniel&#8211;</p>
<p>I realize what you are trying to get at in the sense of superficial stats, but im trying to mainly look at the underlying stuff. What I&#8217;m trying to say is Felix is a better pitcher in terms of luck-neutral context, while he&#8217;s also in the more favorable environment.</p>
<p>To scottwood, I say you need to not look @ the 1-season skewed data. Yes, Verlander was better in 2009, but can you say he will be better than felix in &#8217;10? I can&#8217;t. The GB rate and BB rate favor Hernandez, while the defense will only make the superficial stats that much prettier. I think both are high quality arms, but verlander is on a defense that lost 3 of its top 5 defenders in the lg avg park, while Hernandez is on a team w/ the best defense in baseball and a bottom ten runs creation park. Plus, verlander&#8217;s 5 year deal covers his age 27-32 years, while felix&#8217;s covers the ages 24-29 seasons. Felix has more upside, more consistency, more success and is younger. It seems like he deserves the higher payout</p>
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		<title>By: Nathaniel Dawson</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127947</link>
		<dc:creator>Nathaniel Dawson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 06:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127947</guid>
		<description>Some of what I just wrote there is wrong -- BB&#039;s, K&#039;s, GB&#039;s aren&#039;t really affected by park or defense, at least not to any level we&#039;d care about here. I was writing that out too fast without looking carefully at the stats you used in your comment. 

Still, you do use ERA and FIP in your article, and the point still applies. You state near the end of the article that you think Felix has more value going forward based partly on the park and defense he pitches in, which just isn&#039;t true. His value isn&#039;t affected by his environment, nor is Verlander&#039;s value affected by his.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some of what I just wrote there is wrong &#8212; BB&#8217;s, K&#8217;s, GB&#8217;s aren&#8217;t really affected by park or defense, at least not to any level we&#8217;d care about here. I was writing that out too fast without looking carefully at the stats you used in your comment. </p>
<p>Still, you do use ERA and FIP in your article, and the point still applies. You state near the end of the article that you think Felix has more value going forward based partly on the park and defense he pitches in, which just isn&#8217;t true. His value isn&#8217;t affected by his environment, nor is Verlander&#8217;s value affected by his.</p>
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		<title>By: Nathaniel Dawson</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127932</link>
		<dc:creator>Nathaniel Dawson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 05:09:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127932</guid>
		<description>&quot;Where are you coming from with the notion that Verlander is better?&quot;

I&#039;m not saying Verlander&#039;s better or making any kind of judgement about his or Felix&#039; relative worth. You were comparing the two and making a judgement about their worth, right? I&#039;m only commenting on your statement in the article about park and defense.

&quot;The better K/BB/GB guy in the better pitchers park and in front of the better defense…all signs point to felix&quot;

But that&#039;s my point -- some of the reason why his K&#039;s, BB&#039;s, GB&#039;s look better is because he&#039;s been pitching in a better environment. But that has nothing to do with his value. 

&quot;Other factors to consider are ballpark and team defense, both of which favor King Felix.&quot;

You&#039;re comparing the two players. The fact that they&#039;ve been able to put up relatively equivalent numbers while Felix has been doing so in a more friendly pitching environment is not a point in Felix&#039; favor. It&#039;s actually a point in Verlanders favor, because he&#039;s been able to put up comparable numbers while pitching in a more difficult environment in which to do so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Where are you coming from with the notion that Verlander is better?&#8221;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying Verlander&#8217;s better or making any kind of judgement about his or Felix&#8217; relative worth. You were comparing the two and making a judgement about their worth, right? I&#8217;m only commenting on your statement in the article about park and defense.</p>
<p>&#8220;The better K/BB/GB guy in the better pitchers park and in front of the better defense…all signs point to felix&#8221;</p>
<p>But that&#8217;s my point &#8212; some of the reason why his K&#8217;s, BB&#8217;s, GB&#8217;s look better is because he&#8217;s been pitching in a better environment. But that has nothing to do with his value. </p>
<p>&#8220;Other factors to consider are ballpark and team defense, both of which favor King Felix.&#8221;</p>
<p>You&#8217;re comparing the two players. The fact that they&#8217;ve been able to put up relatively equivalent numbers while Felix has been doing so in a more friendly pitching environment is not a point in Felix&#8217; favor. It&#8217;s actually a point in Verlanders favor, because he&#8217;s been able to put up comparable numbers while pitching in a more difficult environment in which to do so.</p>
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		<title>By: Scottwood</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127927</link>
		<dc:creator>Scottwood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 04:34:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127927</guid>
		<description>Verlander K&#039;s more batters than Hernandez if you look at the last 3 years.  He has a 8.61 K/9 ratio and Felix has a 7.96 K/9 ratio.  Hernandez has a slightly lower BB/9 ratio, but Verlander has the better overall K/BB ratio.  Verlander also has the slightly higher WAR over the last 3 years.  And, depending on your views on WPA/LI and how much weight we should give to that, over the last 3 years Verlander has a 7.36 WPA/LI and Hernandez has a 4.99 WPA/LI

Hernandez is probably the better pitcher going forward, but the gap between them is not as large as I think most people believe.  I think that is mostly what people are arguing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Verlander K&#8217;s more batters than Hernandez if you look at the last 3 years.  He has a 8.61 K/9 ratio and Felix has a 7.96 K/9 ratio.  Hernandez has a slightly lower BB/9 ratio, but Verlander has the better overall K/BB ratio.  Verlander also has the slightly higher WAR over the last 3 years.  And, depending on your views on WPA/LI and how much weight we should give to that, over the last 3 years Verlander has a 7.36 WPA/LI and Hernandez has a 4.99 WPA/LI</p>
<p>Hernandez is probably the better pitcher going forward, but the gap between them is not as large as I think most people believe.  I think that is mostly what people are arguing.</p>
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		<title>By: David MVP Eckstein</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127913</link>
		<dc:creator>David MVP Eckstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 03:19:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127913</guid>
		<description>Huh? Felix has better peripherals than verladner too and those are not park/defense oriented. Felix K&#039;s more, BBs less and GBs much more. 

Where are you coming from with the notion that Verlander is better? The better K/BB/GB guy in the better pitchers park and in front of the better defense...all signs point to felix</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Huh? Felix has better peripherals than verladner too and those are not park/defense oriented. Felix K&#8217;s more, BBs less and GBs much more. </p>
<p>Where are you coming from with the notion that Verlander is better? The better K/BB/GB guy in the better pitchers park and in front of the better defense&#8230;all signs point to felix</p>
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		<title>By: Nathaniel Dawson</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-extension-for-verlander/#comment-127903</link>
		<dc:creator>Nathaniel Dawson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 02:28:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=15583#comment-127903</guid>
		<description>But park and defense don&#039;t favor Felix. He&#039;s the one that&#039;s been pitching in a park that suppresses runs and lowering his ERA and making his stats look better. 

You state in you article that &quot;it is an important question to ask whether or not Verlander deserves more money than King Felix&quot;. If, as you state, you&#039;re trying to determine the true value of these players and you&#039;re going to consider park and defense, then Verlander gets a favorable adjustment, while King Felix gets an unfavorable adjustment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But park and defense don&#8217;t favor Felix. He&#8217;s the one that&#8217;s been pitching in a park that suppresses runs and lowering his ERA and making his stats look better. </p>
<p>You state in you article that &#8220;it is an important question to ask whether or not Verlander deserves more money than King Felix&#8221;. If, as you state, you&#8217;re trying to determine the true value of these players and you&#8217;re going to consider park and defense, then Verlander gets a favorable adjustment, while King Felix gets an unfavorable adjustment.</p>
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