Andruw’s Best Case Scenario
Over the weekend, Andruw Jones signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the opening day roster and has incentives that could push his total compensation up to just over $1 million. This is, obviously, a huge fall from last winter, when he coaxed an $18 million per year salary out of the Dodgers based on his strong performance history.
However, as we all know, Jones’ career track has been on a noticeable downward trend. Let me show you four seasons of performance:
Age 26: .321/.390/.561, .403 wOBA, 679 PA
Age 27: .282/.346/.467, .348 wOBA, 675 PA
Age 28: .252/.333/.449, .344 wOBA, 555 PA
Age 29: .172/.261/.253, .235 wOBA, 253 PA
That’s a pretty nasty downward trend in what should be the prime of a career. From superstar at 26 to worst hitter in baseball at 29… that’s quite the fall from grace. Except, you may have noticed, those numbers don’t belong to Andruw Jones. Those numbers come from the career log of Jermaine Dye.
It has seemingly passed the memory of some, but it wasn’t too long ago that we saw a prominant right-handed power hitting outfielder collapse entirely at a young age. In what should have been the best years of his career, Dye posted one of the worst seasons in recent baseball history.
And then he came back.
Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346. In fact, his five seasons since his disaster season are actually better than the five seasons that led up to his collapse. Not only did he return to previous form, but he raised game even beyond previously established levels.
Now, in Dye’s case, there was obviously extenuating circumstances – he fouled a ball off his leg in the 2001 playoffs, fracturing his tibia, and faced significant knee problems for the next few years. There is no doubt that Dye’s health was a significant issue during his collapse. Once Dye’s knee regained full health, so did the thunder in his bat.
Should we consider Andruw’s weight problems to be similar to Dye’s knee problems? Well, we might have a lot less sympathy for Jones, who caused his own physical issues, when Dye was the recipient of some bad luck. However, whatever caused them, the underlying fact is that both had significant physical problems that limited their ability to hit a baseball, and that Jones’ problems are no less fixable than Dye’s were, given he puts in the effort to get himself back into shape.
Make no mistake – I am not saying that Andruw Jones, heading into his age 32 season, is about to rip off five seasons that match what Jermaine Dye has done since 2004. However, I think we should all keep Dye in mind when we jump to conclusions about what 250 terrible plate appearances mean in the context of a player losing all abilities to hit a baseball.
For the Rangers, this is a pretty terrific move. The Ballpark in Arlington is a great place to hit, and a little confidence goes a pretty long way when you’re trying to convince someone that their hard work has a payoff. If Jones really does commit himself to getting back in baseball shape to try and save his career, the Rangers could easily find themselves with a guy who reminds everyone that he can still hit a baseball.
Just like we shouldn’t have written Dye’s eulogy in 2003, neither should we kill off the career of Andruw Jones prematurely. He’s going to have to work his tail off, but there’s upside here.
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Wow, what a fantastic piece Dave. I knew Dye had a very bad year, but did not remember it as being quite that bad. I guess that’s why people rely on stats and not memories.
I agree that the Rangers got a great deal, and I’m actually surprised that no one else bit. $1 million dollars seems like an awful small amount of risk for someone who hit 40 hrs and was one of the best fielders in the game just a few years ago. I would understand if he were 36, but he’s not.
If he’s in shape (big IF), I’d take him for 1 million over V.Wells and his ridiculous contract…
If Andruw is in decent shape he’s going to be worth the 1 million the Rangers will pay him due to his defensive ability alone. If he can perform as a league avg hitter he’ll be an absolute steal.
My “guess” is that Andruw Jones won’t make the team. First off, there really isn’t a spot on the Rangers 25 man roster for him. My “guess” is that he doesn’t make the team, is released… toils around in someone’s minor league system for a few months and is never heard from again. He looked incredibly awful with the Dodgers and incredibly awful in winter ball.
vr, Xei
Um, couldn’t he just be a ‘roid head who isn’t very good at hitting baseballs? Don’t forget the big white elephant in the room.
the big white elepahnt in the room?
First off, great article. Secondly, I really do think that AJ can resurrect his career in Texas. What better guy to help him get his swing back then Rudy Jaramillo. As a die hard Cubs fan I have seen what he can do through the amazing breakthrough of Mark DeRosa alone. On top of that, Arlington is obviously a great place for him to find his groove again. Now if only Pronk could find his way down there with a healthy shoulder to get his career on track too…
I side with Xeifrank; from all accounts, Jones hasn’t made any significant progress in the offseason with either his weight or his swing. He’s made over $100MM in his short career; I suspect he’s lost all incentive to make the effort to shed his bad baseball and eating habits. I suspect that even if Jones makes the team, he won’t be in Texas by the end of the season, and then will leave baseball altogether. What a shame; I liked watching him in his better days.
GREGG!!! SHHHHHHH!!!! The baseball nerds in blogsville like to pretend that steroids don’t exist and have never tainted anything in baseball. Who looks at numbers and players’ physique to determine these things that seem so obvious? Oh yeah, realists…
So don’t mention roids here. Especially in one of Dave’s posts. You still can’t convince the guy that his idol, Adrian Beltre, roided in 2004 to catch a huge payday.
Ignorance is bliss, Gregg.
Jose – Way to prove a point with snarky comments instead of, you know, proof.
Couple things that make it quite different:
1. Dye’s BABIP was a very uncharacteristic .194 in his awful year.
2. Jones had an alarming (even for him) 76 k’s which to me indicates a lot more than hitting into bad luck or just injury concerns. To me it indicates decline in skill.
This should have been Andruw’s Breast Case Scenario because, you know, he’s fat and needs a case for his breasts.
“Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346″
So, three of four seasons he was a below average (347) corner outfielder. That other year must have been the one he took the roids.
This looks like a good move for the Rangers. Arlington is the best place for a slugger to resurrect his career, see Sosa, and if Jones is able to replicate his defensive value even from 07, he would be worth 2.5 wins before he touched the bat.
From all accounts, or whatever I can find, Jones has lost 25lbs. Yay!
This is a steal, and i’ve come to the conclusion that there’s no way in hoot that Andruw Jones didn’t use steroids. I tend to believe that he stopped using them a year or two ago, and is realizing that baseball isn’t quite as easy when you’re 30 as it was when you’re 20.
I think with a full year, full camp, and full off-season under his belt — he’ll come back. I’m sure there’s gotta be some form of “withdrawal” when coming off the juice.
Of course, I have no proof of such things and this is just speculation — but the pieces fit (at least to me).
Being fat and tarnishing your reputation sucks and men have pride. Pride obviously doesn’t fix things in a month, or sometimes even a year but Pride will be what at some point this season helps Jones man-the-eff-up.
This performance drop off is too huge to be attributed solely to PEDs. He has other issues. Some of them stem from a skill set that atrophies poorly. Example: career .5 BB/K ratio, poor contact skills, fly ball prone hitter. Fly ball hitters without power have terrible BABIP: fly balls make more outs than any other sort of hit, unless they’re leaving the park. Jones fly balls stopped leaving the park. His pitch selection went to utter shit in 2008, when his o-swing/z-swing ratio climbed to nearly 1:2. The knee issues may actually explain some loss of power, so if Jones can recover that power, he could return to being a good hitter.