Comments on: Andruw’s Best Case Scenario

By: Fresh Hops

Fresh Hops — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 05:14:37 +0000

This performance drop off is too huge to be attributed solely to PEDs. He has other issues. Some of them stem from a skill set that atrophies poorly. Example: career .5 BB/K ratio, poor contact skills, fly ball prone hitter. Fly ball hitters without power have terrible BABIP: fly balls make more outs than any other sort of hit, unless they’re leaving the park. Jones fly balls stopped leaving the park. His pitch selection went to utter shit in 2008, when his o-swing/z-swing ratio climbed to nearly 1:2. The knee issues may actually explain some loss of power, so if Jones can recover that power, he could return to being a good hitter.

By: kris

kris — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:01:45 +0000

From all accounts, or whatever I can find, Jones has lost 25lbs. Yay!

This is a steal, and i’ve come to the conclusion that there’s no way in hoot that Andruw Jones didn’t use steroids. I tend to believe that he stopped using them a year or two ago, and is realizing that baseball isn’t quite as easy when you’re 30 as it was when you’re 20.

I think with a full year, full camp, and full off-season under his belt — he’ll come back. I’m sure there’s gotta be some form of “withdrawal” when coming off the juice.

Of course, I have no proof of such things and this is just speculation — but the pieces fit (at least to me).

Being fat and tarnishing your reputation sucks and men have pride. Pride obviously doesn’t fix things in a month, or sometimes even a year but Pride will be what at some point this season helps Jones man-the-eff-up.

By: Carson

Carson — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:59:18 +0000

Jose – Way to prove a point with snarky comments instead of, you know, proof.

By: Nick

Nick — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 02:16:35 +0000

This looks like a good move for the Rangers. Arlington is the best place for a slugger to resurrect his career, see Sosa, and if Jones is able to replicate his defensive value even from 07, he would be worth 2.5 wins before he touched the bat.

By: Brian Cartwright

Brian Cartwright — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:40:38 +0000

“Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346″

So, three of four seasons he was a below average (347) corner outfielder. That other year must have been the one he took the roids.

By: I Have Nothing Else to Offer

I Have Nothing Else to Offer — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:36:39 +0000

This should have been Andruw’s Breast Case Scenario because, you know, he’s fat and needs a case for his breasts.

By: Kinsler5

Kinsler5 — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:42:34 +0000

Couple things that make it quite different:

1. Dye’s BABIP was a very uncharacteristic .194 in his awful year.

2. Jones had an alarming (even for him) 76 k’s which to me indicates a lot more than hitting into bad luck or just injury concerns. To me it indicates decline in skill.

By: Jose

Jose — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:33:10 +0000

GREGG!!! SHHHHHHH!!!! The baseball nerds in blogsville like to pretend that steroids don’t exist and have never tainted anything in baseball. Who looks at numbers and players’ physique to determine these things that seem so obvious? Oh yeah, realists…

So don’t mention roids here. Especially in one of Dave’s posts. You still can’t convince the guy that his idol, Adrian Beltre, roided in 2004 to catch a huge payday.

Ignorance is bliss, Gregg.

By: ScottP

ScottP — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:32:39 +0000

I side with Xeifrank; from all accounts, Jones hasn’t made any significant progress in the offseason with either his weight or his swing. He’s made over $100MM in his short career; I suspect he’s lost all incentive to make the effort to shed his bad baseball and eating habits. I suspect that even if Jones makes the team, he won’t be in Texas by the end of the season, and then will leave baseball altogether. What a shame; I liked watching him in his better days.

By: PRD

PRD — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:08:31 +0000

First off, great article. Secondly, I really do think that AJ can resurrect his career in Texas. What better guy to help him get his swing back then Rudy Jaramillo. As a die hard Cubs fan I have seen what he can do through the amazing breakthrough of Mark DeRosa alone. On top of that, Arlington is obviously a great place for him to find his groove again. Now if only Pronk could find his way down there with a healthy shoulder to get his career on track too…