Angels Sign Hideki Matsui
Of all the potential landing spots for Hideki Matsui, the Angels seemed unlikely. As one of the teams with wallets thick enough to afford a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, their willingness to bow out and settle on Matsui seems fairly odd. The money (one-year, $6.5M) is similar to the deal signed by Bobby Abreu last off-season but the circumstances vary wildly. Nevertheless, the Angels have their replacement for Vladimir Guerrero.
Matsui will turn 36 in mid-June and bats from the left side of the plate. Over the last three seasons he’s posted wOBA of .368, .348, and .378. That 2009 mark wouldn’t seem the least bit suspicious if not for a .235 ISO. That marks a career best from Matsui and it happens to come the year he spent in the Yankees new wind-aided launching pad. The odds of him repeating such a display of pop are unlikely. Without adjusting for park, league, or age, a 5-4-3-2 regression has Matsui with a wOBA around .360 next year. That looks remarkably like a projection for Abreu and it’s an upgrade over Vlad’s 2009.
There are hints that Matsui will get a chance to play the field occasionally. That’s not going to cost the Angels much in terms of runs unless he’s playing the field quite often, which is something he did not at all in 2009. The more pressing concern might be health-related. Matsui has had some issues in the past staying healthy and their starters wouldn’t appear to be the most reliable options either. Barring some new additions, the Angels are looking at a starting outfield of Abreu (36), Torii Hunter (34), and Juan Rivera (31). I can’t think of too many outfields currently in place with an average age of 34 years as of late outside of the 2004 Giants and 2001 Yankees.
I’m not saying age is going to guarantee injury or that Abreu will lose a limb sometime soon, it’s just peculiar that the Angels went this route with their history of making a splash on the market and the chance to get younger.
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The day that this happened (when Lackey, Halladay, etc. were signed/traded too) made me feel like the Yankees overslept that day or something.
I agree that it’s a strange acquisition for the Angels, given that the Mariners are really loading up for a run. Makes no difference to me though.
My only question is, what exactly is a 5-4-3-2 regression? I don’t remember ever hearing of that one.
Why does everybody assume the Yanks were asleep at the wheel? They struck last week, dealing for Granderson and locking up Pettitte. While I wanted them to land Cameron, I think it’s clear at this point that Cashman’s either going to see what shakes out of the market or he’s going stealth-mode on Matt Holliday. I certainly don’t think the Yankees were in on Lackey, and their offers for Doc were rebuffed. What else would you have them do?
Kevin,
I didn’t mean to assume anything. It was a musing thought more than anything else, just because all of the players I considered them most likely to pursue were swept up in one day. I half-expected a Cashman-swoop somewhere, but it didn’t happen. That’s all. To answer the question of what I would have them do, however, I would have had them get in on Lackey and/or land Cameron (or make more of an effort), the two things you just acknowledged they didn’t do. The main guy I really wanted for them was Cameron because of the type of contract he got and the way he would indirectly help the pitching, even without Lackey. Lackey going to the Sox, however, gives them easily the best top three starters in baseball, so that wasn’t good to see either.
Michael,
I’m only familiar with the most basic regression techniques (going off to learn more next year, hopefully), but does that mean it’s based on 5x(most recent year) + 4x(year before that) … ?
R.J.’s referring to a weighted 5-4-3-2 projection (with the heavier weights on the most recent seasons) and then a “regression to the mean” component, thus creating a Marcels-type projection for a player.
Did you check Matsui’s h/r splits (or hit tracker data) before asserting that his power in 2009 was a function of the “wind aided launching pad?” I don’t recall Hideki being helped by the stadium the way Damon, Jeter and some others were.
Home: .354 OBP, .462 SLG
Away: .383 OBP, .567 SLG.
Yep, clearly that disgraceful bandbox inflated his numbers. ;)
More likely he just had a bit of a flukey power spike, and yeah I’d expect it to drop some too. But if the man’s knees hold up I’d expect him to hit plenty enough to justify the contract. Playing him in the field, IMO, is madness. Both b/c of the injury issues and b/c his defense was horrid BEFORE the knees went.
this was also the first year out of the last 3 (which his woba reference is limited to, his career) that he was healthy for the whole season. can’t imagine that helps you hit the ball far, right? his wOBA fro his career is .367, with or with a career .191 ISO. So the previous 2 years were actually… down years for Matsui. This year is closer to his healthy potential than 07 or 08.
nice research R.J… lol
Not that I disagree that it’s not all “bandbox-inflated” but wouldn’t it be more accurate to compare his ISO from YSII to that of his ISO from YSIII to determine how much is stadium-related?
Granted the sample size is small but last year his ISO at home was .198, compared to his career figure of .190 at old Yankee Stadium. Not a sizeable difference, but not a negligible one either.
Wonderful that fangraphs also falls for the “bandbox!!1″ meme. Nice research.
Agreed. When it takes Rob from CT, about 6 minutes judging from the times of his two posts to check whether the data seems to support the conclusions of your argument, and in fact determine that they don’t, I think we can say that’s pretty sloppy, and not what’s expected from a site like this which often takes great pleasure in rubbing it in others faces when they don’t check the numbers.
Home: .354 OBP, .462 SLG
Away: .383 OBP, .567 SLG.
“News: Matsui has officially signed a one-year deal with the Angels, Tyler Kepner of the NY Times reports.
Analysis: He’ll slot into the DH role for the Angels as they’ve decided to move on from Vlad Guerrero. Matsui’s power figures to slip a bit with the move out of Yankee Stadium, but he can still be a viable 15-20 homer threat with a good average and plenty of RBI in the middle of the Angels’ lineup. ”
So much fail.
I’m wondering if the Matsui move will indirectly help the Mariners financially. It will allow Japanese fans to see Ichiro vs. Matsui more frequently, and with added drama as they battle for the division.
And that defense is NOT pretty, at all.
The Angels should be trying to move Abreu to DH, not keep him out in the field.
Since Rivera’s ’09 defensive numbers scream “aberration” to me (his career numbers are NOT that pretty), and Hunter’s CF defense is…err…questionable… that’s not a good thing.