Comments on: Another Tremendous Stretch

By: Jayson Beckom

Jayson Beckom — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:05:40 +0000

Thanks for writing this topic. I had been searching for good information about it.

By: Mike

Mike — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:17:08 +0000

I realise by the very nature of WPA it is difficult to predict, but is there a case for Carpenter being more useful in the pen by this metric?

By: WY

WY — Thu, 28 May 2009 18:15:48 +0000

Just to follow up, I imagine that the “inept” tag comes from the FIP numbers. But in terms of other numbers like WPA, ERA, WHIP, and so on, they have been good.

By: WY

WY — Thu, 28 May 2009 18:10:07 +0000

The bullpen was inept last year. I know that from personal experience. The key culprits from last year — Izzy, Villone, Flores — are gone, though.

However, it has not been inept this year. Kinney went down after the first two weeks, Motte had a couple of bad outings and has settled down, and Boyer carries some bad numbers from his early outings with the Braves. But on the whole, the bullpen so far has been good in terms of getting results and holding tight leads, regardless of what the underlying numbers might suggest. Whether it continues to be remains to be seen, of course…

By: Ryan

Ryan — Thu, 28 May 2009 17:51:08 +0000

Not sure about all the bashing of the Cardinals bullpen. Right now they are 4th in ERA in MLB. That doesn’t seem like “ineptitude” or a “ragtag crew,” as the first commenter put it. Perez is pitching very well. Motte is dominating after his opening day meltdown. Franklin is one of the top closers in baseball so far. Kinney has not been on the team so far this year, as far as I recall. Reyes and Miller are good LOOGYs, and Thompson is adequate, if not spectacular, in long relief. Will they continue to be this good? I think yes, if they are not over-exposed. Last year’s poor effort by the bullpen was mainly attributable, I think, to Izzy and overuse caused by issues with the starting rotation. So far this year the bullpen is not being used too heavily, and the result is good performance (plus this year’s bullpen is clearly improved with the addition of Motte and Perez’s continued maturation).

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:01:29 +0000

Hugo, their success on the whole is definitely tied to Pujols and Ludwick. Sure, other players contribute, but if those two miss significant time or perform at subpar levels, the team ain’t going anywhere.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:00:22 +0000

But that’s only due to health. If he had stayed healthy in 2007-08, he might have posted two more +5 win seasons. In 2004, if he made 6-7 more starts he might have been around +4.5 as well.

By: Hugo

Hugo — Thu, 28 May 2009 15:59:38 +0000

Wellemeyer is in the rotation regardless of Carp, Carp actually replaced Mitchell Boggs, or more aptly Boggs filled in for Carp while he was on the DL. If Carp is healthy, and it seems he might be, then I have no problem with him in the rotation, but if his elbow is bothering him after 50 pitches or so it would make no sense to use him as a starter. Just because he has put up a good line so far doesn’t me he was guaranteed to do it. Hindsight is 20/20.

I also don’t get what you mean about “The success of the Cardinals is certainly married to the production levels of Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick,” Are you saying that those two are carrying the offense? That may be true but over the current winning stretch (not really a streak) Ludwick was on the DL and Pujols has been “human” with the offense being carried by small ball tactics.

I do agree this team is better with Carp than without but I don’t think the postseason hinges on him and him alone.

By: Davidceisen

Davidceisen — Thu, 28 May 2009 15:55:45 +0000

4.5 would be his 3rd best season, though based on his first 4 starts of this season it is hard to argue against that.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Thu, 28 May 2009 15:47:43 +0000

David,

That’s of course assuming that Carpenter works well in the bullpen, which is not a sure thing at all. We know he is a dominant starter when healthy, and I would estimate him at around 4.5 wins if he can make 20 starts. Your average reliever probably gets about 0.5 wins. This is why starters are always better than relievers unless the reliever has a Gagne-like season, which we both know is incredibly rare.

Give me 15 GS of Carpenter and 15 of Wellemeyer as opposed to 30 GS of Wellemeyer with Carpenter as the closer.