Comments on: Are First Round Draft Picks Overpaid? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:42:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Coletta Tapio http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-189663 Coletta Tapio Sun, 27 Jun 2010 08:23:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-189663 Its amazing to me how many ways you can go about investing your money. I've found for me that best solution is both risky and low risk stocks. I often times put about 1/2 my investments into low risk mutual funds that grow over time plus the other half in high risk high gain stocks. I recently got into day trading and I discovered that <a href="http://www.prometheusfinancials.com" rel="nofollow">software stock picks </a>are the best reliable as they can automate a process that I cant do quickly enough. The guys over at PrometheusFinancials.Com have an incredible system. Be certain to check them out! Its amazing to me how many ways you can go about investing your money. I’ve found for me that best solution is both risky and low risk stocks. I often times put about 1/2 my investments into low risk mutual funds that grow over time plus the other half in high risk high gain stocks. I recently got into day trading and I discovered that software stock picks are the best reliable as they can automate a process that I cant do quickly enough. The guys over at PrometheusFinancials.Com have an incredible system. Be certain to check them out!

]]> By: Michael http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-94133 Michael Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:41:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-94133 I'm interested in the variance of the surplus value for each set of picks, since I think risk should be a consideration as it is in free agency. For each big FA starter that signs you have a Pedro Martinez who pitches 1.5 healthy years of a 4 year deal. I wonder if the draft pick average surplus is skewed by a few big performers. I’m interested in the variance of the surplus value for each set of picks, since I think risk should be a consideration as it is in free agency. For each big FA starter that signs you have a Pedro Martinez who pitches 1.5 healthy years of a 4 year deal. I wonder if the draft pick average surplus is skewed by a few big performers.

]]> By: han http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-93106 han Tue, 25 Aug 2009 01:29:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-93106 If over 75% of first round picks never make it to free agency, how can you use free agent prices to ascribe any sort of value to a first round pick? If over 75% of first round picks never make it to free agency, how can you use free agent prices to ascribe any sort of value to a first round pick?

]]> By: Jay http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-93099 Jay Tue, 25 Aug 2009 00:56:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-93099 Rudeness? I don't think there was any. You published a piece of pure analysis, and analysis goes, it was poor, and I said so. Welcome to the big leagues. Rudeness? I don’t think there was any. You published a piece of pure analysis, and analysis goes, it was poor, and I said so. Welcome to the big leagues.

]]> By: han http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-93092 han Mon, 24 Aug 2009 23:39:48 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-93092 so even in 2005, one of the greatest draft years ever, there is only a 50-50 chance that you are going to get a decent player. The reality is that a large percentage of first rounders don't even get to the majors, much less have any sort of career. What percentage of first rounders even make it to free agency? Figure 3-5 years in the minors, and 6 years before free agency, and you'd have to look back into the 90's to figure it out. On a quick look, over 25% of the first round picks in the 90's never even made it out of the minor leagues, and over 50% of the players who made it to the ML never accrued enough service time to qualify for free agency. the idea that so even in 2005, one of the greatest draft years ever, there is only a 50-50 chance that you are going to get a decent player. The reality is that a large percentage of first rounders don’t even get to the majors, much less have any sort of career. What percentage of first rounders even make it to free agency? Figure 3-5 years in the minors, and 6 years before free agency, and you’d have to look back into the 90′s to figure it out. On a quick look, over 25% of the first round picks in the 90′s never even made it out of the minor leagues, and over 50% of the players who made it to the ML never accrued enough service time to qualify for free agency.

the idea that

]]> By: Blogger Bill from Elmhurst, IL http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-93041 Blogger Bill from Elmhurst, IL Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:23:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-93041 Proof once again that stats can be manipulated to make whatever argument you wish to pursue. Take a look at the MLB draft class of 2005, and you'll quickly see that picks #15 through the supplemental 1st round picks have produced only 2 (count 'em), quality big leaguers, both coincidentally enough in Boston. *** There are a couple of "fringe" players in the (mostly bad), lot, but for the most part it was an awful lot of money MLB owners spent on a bunch of stiffs. Proof once again that stats can be manipulated to make whatever argument you wish to pursue. Take a look at the MLB draft class of 2005, and you’ll quickly see that picks #15 through the supplemental 1st round picks have produced only 2 (count ‘em), quality big leaguers, both coincidentally enough in Boston.
***
There are a couple of “fringe” players in the (mostly bad), lot, but for the most part it was an awful lot of money MLB owners spent on a bunch of stiffs.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-93012 Andrew Mon, 24 Aug 2009 17:28:09 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-93012 I actually DO live in the area Dave, which is why I have to shake my head at the incompetence with which the Lerner's have handled their franchise. The Lerner's forced the taxpayers to fund their ugly monstrosity of a stadium. They refused to pay rent for a stadium because it wasn't "game ready", while actually playing games in the stadium! They incompetently hired Jim Bowden and signed off on his poor treatment of the Alfonso Soriano debacle, the collection of any and all Reds has-beens, the Frank Robinson firing, the Manny Acta firing, the whole thing with them has been crap! Outside of the good luck of Ryan Zimmerman, the team has been pretty much miss on all of its major player personnel decisions. Rizzo seems to be doing fine, but I wonder how much the Lerner's will be willing to let him spend on the draft going forward to properly develop this franchise. I actually DO live in the area Dave, which is why I have to shake my head at the incompetence with which the Lerner’s have handled their franchise.

The Lerner’s forced the taxpayers to fund their ugly monstrosity of a stadium. They refused to pay rent for a stadium because it wasn’t “game ready”, while actually playing games in the stadium!

They incompetently hired Jim Bowden and signed off on his poor treatment of the Alfonso Soriano debacle, the collection of any and all Reds has-beens, the Frank Robinson firing, the Manny Acta firing, the whole thing with them has been crap!

Outside of the good luck of Ryan Zimmerman, the team has been pretty much miss on all of its major player personnel decisions. Rizzo seems to be doing fine, but I wonder how much the Lerner’s will be willing to let him spend on the draft going forward to properly develop this franchise.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-92952 Nick Mon, 24 Aug 2009 14:13:25 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-92952 Welcome to FanGraphs ;) Welcome to FanGraphs ;)

]]> By: han http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-92951 han Mon, 24 Aug 2009 14:07:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-92951 The use of the average is a problem here. One Tex and twenty nine Matt Bushes makes for a pretty hefty average, but you wouldn't want to be picking in that round, would you? The median is a better indicator. The median non draft bonus is about the same as the median draft bonus (around the 35k mark.) and yet there is 2.5 to 3 times more money spent in the draft on roughly the same number of players. There is as much money spent in the first round alone as there is for all non drafted players, and it doesn't matter if it is a dog of a year, or 2005. Bad year? still have to pay. That is the problem. Check out the first round in 2000--almost half the players never even got to the ML. And many of them who did were about as good as Adam Johnson. However, Gonzalez, Utley and Wainwright will blow the average right up the ladder. Teams are locked into the value of the round, not the value of the player. The first round has great players who will make a lot of money. However, any team in any year has just as good, if not better, chance of getting an impact player after the first round than in the first round. Bay/Pedroia/Lowell/Papelbon/Lester/Youkilis/Wakefield/Delacarmen/(plus Ortiz/Martinez/Gonzalez) Beckett/Ellsbury/Drew/Buchholz/Varitek/Kotchman/Lowrie/Duncan/Baldelli/Anderson/Bowden/Traber/Matsuzaka and Tanaka (1st rounders in Japan, paid like first rounders.) Which group is worth more? The use of the average is a problem here. One Tex and twenty nine Matt Bushes makes for a pretty hefty average, but you wouldn’t want to be picking in that round, would you? The median is a better indicator.

The median non draft bonus is about the same as the median draft bonus (around the 35k mark.) and yet there is 2.5 to 3 times more money spent in the draft on roughly the same number of players. There is as much money spent in the first round alone as there is for all non drafted players, and it doesn’t matter if it is a dog of a year, or 2005. Bad year? still have to pay. That is the problem. Check out the first round in 2000–almost half the players never even got to the ML. And many of them who did were about as good as Adam Johnson. However, Gonzalez, Utley and Wainwright will blow the average right up the ladder. Teams are locked into the value of the round, not the value of the player. The first round has great players who will make a lot of money. However, any team in any year has just as good, if not better, chance of getting an impact player after the first round than in the first round.

Bay/Pedroia/Lowell/Papelbon/Lester/Youkilis/Wakefield/Delacarmen/(plus Ortiz/Martinez/Gonzalez)
Beckett/Ellsbury/Drew/Buchholz/Varitek/Kotchman/Lowrie/Duncan/Baldelli/Anderson/Bowden/Traber/Matsuzaka and Tanaka (1st rounders in Japan, paid like first rounders.)

Which group is worth more?

]]> By: DavidCEisen http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-first-round-draft-picks-overpaid/#comment-92922 DavidCEisen Mon, 24 Aug 2009 00:03:05 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8411#comment-92922 The New York Times mentioned this article today. The New York Times mentioned this article today.

]]>