A’s Acquire Kevin Kouzmanoff
The one residual effect from Moneyball that I admire the most about Billy Beane is how significant he remains in baseball pop culture. Anytime he makes a signing, trade, or draft selection, everyone – even his grandmother – takes two looks at the transaction. That notion is in overdrive with his latest move.
As recently as 24 hours ago, the Athletics’ third base depth chart featured: the always-injured Eric Chavez; the more-than-svelte Tommy Everidge (now Mariners’ property); and not-really-a-third-baseman-at-all Jake Fox. Tonight the order looks a bit different as the A’s acquired Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard from the Padres for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kouzmanoff is everything that the Moneyball caricature of Beane disliked. He rarely walks (4.9% career) and expands his strike zone often. A raw offensive line of .261/.308/.435 causes him to appear as a below average batter, although our park adjustments have him in the black over the last three seasons combined. Kouzmanoff’s offensive game is more pop-based than a 13-year-old’s diet. The park he’s moving from isn’t much friendlier than the one he’s frantically fleeing and he’s moving to the American League. Don’t expect too much of an upswing. Kouzmanoff’s value comes from his position and ability to defend the position better than the average. Give him credit for consistent WAR values, if nothing else, as he’s been worth 2.7 or 2.8 WAR for each of the past three seasons. He’ll probably be worth 2.5-3 wins next year as well and has three seasons of team control remaining.
Sogard, on the other hand, walks like crazy. He turns 24 in May and plays second base while batting lefty. In 2008 he walked in nearly 13% of the time in High-A and 11% in 2009 at Double-A. He’s not a power hitter and Marc Hulet pegged him as the left-handed part of a platoon or future utility player.
In exchange, the Athletics give up two seasons of Hairston and six of Cunningham. Both are right-handed outfielders with Hairston holding the ability to play a Major League quality center right away. Hairston was acquired from the Padres just last July and his run with Oakland can’t be described much kinder than “awful”. Hairston held a .279 wOBA in 248 plate appearances with the A’s, which was probably in the 1% percentile of unlikely results given his .390 wOBA in 216 plate trips with San Diego.
The A’s have a loaded outfield already: Coco Crisp, Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis, and Travis Buck. Clearly they have the means to go with a three-centerfielder outfield already, and Hairston was not going to DH with Jack Cust returning. This leads to Cunningham. His status as the most desirable outfield prospect within the system was in danger with Michael Taylor sitting near. Cunningham turns 24 years old in just three months and he has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level anymore (an .899 OPS through nearly 460 plate appearances).
Acquired in the Dan Haren trade, Cunningham was blocked by Matt Holiday last year and seemingly lacked opportunity to break into the Athletics’ lineup this season as well. It’s silly to say that Beane sold high on Cunningham. Instead, it seems he sold before Cunningham lost too much of his previous luster. Whether the A’s simply held low evaluations of Cunningham nowadays or he was lost in a numbers game is a mystery.
This move improves the Athletics in 2010, but not enough to make a serious push for the division. Kouzmanoff for Hairston is fine, it’s the other two pieces that I’m unsure of. Unless I’m missing something or too optimistic on Cunningham, I think the edge has to go to San Diego here.
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I see both needs fitting each team. Cunningham ‘s fate was sealed when they traded for Taylor + having desme, brown, buck and a few others. No shortage of OF’s. Obviously they are risking the Rajai Davis isnt a fluke
gyhjkl
Not that it’s any easier to figure out an AGon trade, but it certainly gives SD the OF depth to move Blanks to 1B. Just sayin …
It makes sense for both sides. It allows the Padres to finally shift Chase Headley to 3rd base, which will be nice, and it gives the A’s an upgrade at 3rd. Overall, I like the Kouzmanoff/Sogard combination a bit better than Hairston/Cunningham, but if Cunningham gets an opportunity, that may change the equation.
I think Darnell may force Headley back off 3rd in a year or so.
Well I think it’s pretty obvious what happened here. Yes, Beane probably gave up more value than he got back in return; however, he traded from a position of very good strength (in both the majors and the minors) to fill two positions of weakness. I would say this is pretty clearly a win-win trade.
Aside from who wins the trade, I’d be careful before saying they As don’t have a chance in the West… I’m not saying they’re the favorites, but they aren’t out of it. Their defense will rivals the Mariners, and their pitching (particularly the bullpen) is better than people think.
Agreed, let’s not give the M’s the banner yet. Regarding this deal, when I first saw it reported there was no Sogard, and when I saw it I smiled. Classic Beane. The assessment of Sogard as a utility guy might be right, but the inability to hit lefthanders comment should be taken with a grain of salt. Last season he had a bad split, the season before in Lake Elsinore he hit LHers better but with a lot less power. This year his numbers were off but still good in an extreme pitcher’s park. He had a strained groin during this past season also, which may explain the poor defense grade, the first time I’ve seen his defense described as anything other than very solid. I think this is a big-time value pick for Beane. In two years they could have plus defenders at both MI spots, who can steal some bases, and draw a ton of walks. Kouz is a platoon player, but so is Hairston, and they needed a 3B a lot more than a 5th OFer. Time will tell on this deal, but I really like the idea.
All four teams are tightly bunched. No order of finish in the 2010 AL West would be a completely surprise.
Sogard will NEVER be a plus defender, and is not a base stealing threat.
Bullshit. The angels are bound for the bottom.
^Sarcasm?
This is one of the few websites that views Seattle as being ahead of Texas.
I think they are close, but Texas was a lot better than SEA last year (even without Hamilton). Both teams have added quite a bit over the off-season. But, IMO, SEA hasn’t done enough to be the clear leader over TEX.
This deal also means that Wallace will not be a 3B, which StL evidently knew (and OAK just found it, apparently). It’s interesting because OAK has traded for StL’s two prospects (Daric barton and Brett Wallace) that were/are blocked by Pujols.
I like this deal. As a pitching nut, I really like OAK’s staff.
Everyone has lauded SEA basically having a pitching and defense team, without noticing that OAK is in the same category, and perhaps as talented.
Circle change, Wallace was somewhat unlikely be Oakland’s third baseman when after he was traded to the BlueJays about a month ago.
Yeah, I can see where “not being on the team” would be an obstacle to “playing 3B for them”.
Man, that’s the 2nd time I’ve made that mistake this week. First, Whitesell … now, Wallace.
My job, family, and coaching are completely interferring with me following the finer details of the MLB off-season.
This is unacceptable.
I don’t think Wallace was ever a realistic 3B option for either team.
In the MLBTR thread reporting this trade, it was mentioned that the Athletics now have 8 above average defenders that will likely be in their starting lineup.
The Moneyball philosophy was disregard defense and focus on high-OBP hitters. Why? Because OBP was overlooked. Now, so many teams are trying to copy the Moneyball philosophy that defense has become the new aspect of a player that is overlooked. Statistics like UZR are probably the reason behind this. That’s how Billy Beane works…he looks for what’s undervalued and he stockpiles it.
Well thats an overreaction. Even in the early 2000s chavez’ ellis, tejada, etc They valued defense for awhile. Just because they were forced to put cust, giambi in the field last yr in a failed attempt to improve offense, didnt take away from their defensive importance oversll
It’s not like Beane didn’t throw away defense all the time. I’m talking about guys that they signed as free agents. Chavez, Ellis, and Tejada all started their careers in Oakland and they were all drafted before the famous draft outlined in the book.
In response to your response to MLBfan below (I can’t reply to the third post?), Mark Ellis was acquired from the KC Royals in the Johnny Damon trade while he was still a prospect.
In 2001, prior to the famous draft in the book (2002). His wording actually covers that.
Sorry, I meant major league careers, not professional careers.
To be fair, though, I don’t think at any point did Beane not value defense. He just wasn’t going after it in FA, because teams were paying too much for it.
“…it’s the other two pieces that I’m unsure of. Unless I’m missing something or too optimistic on Cunningham, I think the edge has to go to San Diego here.”
CHONE Projects:
Kouzmanoff+Sogard= 2+.9=2.9
Hairston+Cunningham= .6+.8=1.4
Plus, Kouz/Sogard will be cost-controlled for longer than Hairston/Cunningham.
I think Oakland got the edge in this deal.
I don’t think you can put too much stock in projections for prospects. Scouting information is going to be a lot more valuable.
Kouz CHONE RAA next year: -3.9
Headley CHONE RAA next year: 5.2
Assuming even a 0 fielding RAA for Headley at 3B next year (and for those of us who watched Headley play a solid third in the minors at Elsinore and San Antonio, that’s conservative) this is a huge advantage to the Padres even if Bud Black is stupid enough to allow Hairston near the plate when there’s a RHP in the vicinity.
Obviously, the first set of numbers are batting RAA only.
Look, If you have 5/6 OF and need a good 3B, you give up a little surplus value to fill the hole. It’s a fair trade that favors the A’s just bc they rounded out the team to be competitive
Headley move to 3rd for Pad’s….really lets just open the way for over 100 losses this year. I’m sorry but everytime I have seen Headley play 3rd it has not been pretty!
It’s still not a bad move for them since they have Forsythe and Darnell coming. Both teams dealt from a position of strength, and with the minor leaguers internally they were probably just looking to pick up a prospect they like.
RJ, Petco has a Park Factor of .721 for HR. Oakland County has a .927. Still not hitter friendly, but significantly more friendly for a power hitter.
On hits goes from .805 in Petco to .946 in Oakland. Still a huge jump.
Yeah, anywhere but Petco will be a help for Kouzmanoff. His career line there is .239/.290/.394. The place just kills him.
Career, on the road: .284/.328/.477.
His MLE from Akron was .284/.337/.469 (adjusted for Oakland).
His 750 run environment adjusted line is .275/.324/.459.
His career away from PETCO, according to my numbers, though, is .282/.326/.475. Not that it’s any big deal, but I think it’s fair to think he can go .280/.330/.460 in 2010.
The unfortunate part is that Kouz high end projections is way below what they projected even chavez to do just 3 or 4 yrs ago. But thats the past. Above avgdefense, 20 hr pop is a huge improvement over what they’ve had in recent seasons. I’m also optimistic on some reports on sogard who’s more than a throw in. Of course, he’s now blocked by cardenas, weeks.
Just another part for Beane to deal around.
Or Sogard breaks out and Cardenas becomes bait. Who knows. Either way, if Beane’s biggest problem right now is that he stocks too much in his farm, well, that’s a problem I wouldn’t mind from my GM.
But yeah, imagine having 1/6th of your team’s payroll doing nothing all season, and still being almost a .500 team. I think by 2011-12, it’ll be the A’s and Mariners battling for the AL West title (stuff will stop working out sooner or later for the bozos in LA).
Petco is much tougher on left handed bats than right handed – left field is a lot closer.
“in the 1% percentile of unlikely results”
the one percent percentile?
And would the 1st percentile of unlikely results mean it was among the very most likely results?
I really doubt the A’s can have an offense good enough to win that division. They are the only team that has virtually no chance of being a good, or even average offensive team. They could have a real chance if their pitching was a sure thing, but, just like that of the Rangers, their rotation is full of young pitchers with big potential but without enough consistency to be counted on to succeed.
The AL West is going to be incredibly interesting next year. There are some tremendous pitchers over there. Personally, I like a healthy Rich Harden to lead Texas to the title.
It’s nice to see BB finally get rid of some of that outfielder dead wood that he’s been accumulating the last 3-4 years. He probably has enough of it to build a schooner.
Kouz isn’t great but the A’s did have Jack Hannahan at third for a full season at one point, and he should be a huge improvement over him. Also the Sundevil is an interesting player. Wonder what this does for Cardenas?
It’s a minor point, but was Tommy Everidge really part of the A’s depth chart for third base? B-R lists him as having a total of 48 games there in the minors, with only 3 at AAA, vs 526 games at 1B. All of the 21 games he played with the A’s in the majors were also at 1B. I’m having trouble believing that he was ever in the A’s plans at the hot corner except in an emergency.
Svelte. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Inconceivable!
I thought he was using it ironically, the way the old nickname “Tiny” used to be applied…
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kouzmanoff is everything that the Moneyball caricature of Beane disliked. He rarely walks (4.9% career) and expands his strike zone often.
I’m going to take this opportunity to explain something about the often misinterpreted ‘Moneyball’, not just in this column but by the baseball community in general.
‘Moneyball’ wasn’t and isn’t about finding players that have good eyes at the plate and poor defensive abilities. It was about identifying under-valued aspects of a market that could used to win ballgames. It wasn’t that Beane thought slow-footed players with strong plate discipline were better than prospects highly touted by scouts but that their skillset was under-valued, thus allowing for bargains on draft day.
sorry, meant to put that first paragraph in quotes….
Yes, and I don’t think that the author here doesn’t understand that. That’s why he used the word “caricature.” I realize that some people do think moneyball=OBP, but I don’t see this article perpetuating that.
Experiment to tell a smart baseball fan from a clueless one.
Ask a fan about Moneyball and two questions?
1) What is the best way to describe Moneyball?
- Searching for players w/ high OBP’s
- Valuing young and fat players over stars and vets?
- Finding value that’s underpriced in the market?
- An outdated system of player analysis?
2) Is acquiring a player like Kevin Kouzmanoff against Moneyball principles?
- Yes, the A’s realize it’s broken
- No, it shows an evolving market
I mean those even beg for the right answer. People will still get it wrong.
Yeah, I guess that’s true Steven. It wasn’t a blatant mis-interpretation. Just felt like throwing out my 2-cents on the subject!
“I’m going to take this opportunity to explain something about the often misinterpreted ‘Moneyball’, not just in this column but by the baseball community in general.
‘Moneyball’ wasn’t and isn’t about finding players that have good eyes at the plate and poor defensive abilities. It was about identifying under-valued aspects of a market that could used to win ballgames. It wasn’t that Beane thought slow-footed players with strong plate discipline were better than prospects highly touted by scouts but that their skillset was under-valued, thus allowing for bargains on draft day.”
I’m going to take this opportunity to say “no shit, Sherlock”.
Thanks for that. You feel better now?