Comments on: Athletics Get Best of Swisher Deal http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:07:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Brian A. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35437 Brian A. Wed, 11 Jun 2008 04:00:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35437 That 3% spike in O-Swing% only equals about 18 balls out of the zone (a mere 1 out of every 32) that he wouldn't have chased last year, and given that his BB/K rate is as high as it's ever been, I wouldn't worry too much about his selectivity. What jumps out at me though is that 66% O-Contact rate, which is 34% higher relative to last year and a ridiculous 62% higher relative to two years ago. In only two years time he's gone from the seventh lowest O-Contact rate out of 159 qualified MLB batters to the cusp of the upper third (64th out of 178), and I can only speculate if that might be at least part of the driving force behind such a paltry .259 BABIP despite a lofty 23.5% line drive rate. Says Baseball Reference, Swisher's BABIP on ground balls stands at .164, roughly four base hits worse than the near-league average .236 mark that he posted in 2006-07, which could possibly be attributed to softly rolling over on bad pitches outside of the zone. I don't know. I don't watch the games. Four hits isn't much anyway. Add in the small handful of air balls that Swisher has also been "unlucky" on, and PrOPS thinks his BABIP should be sitting at .340 for a difference of 13 hits (several more than I'd have guessed), pumping his measly .228/.343/.368 line up to a robust .288/.393/.477, a difference of roughly a dozen runs that would be good enough to leapfrog him from 49th to 12th in the AL in OPS. That 3% spike in O-Swing% only equals about 18 balls out of the zone (a mere 1 out of every 32) that he wouldn’t have chased last year, and given that his BB/K rate is as high as it’s ever been, I wouldn’t worry too much about his selectivity.

What jumps out at me though is that 66% O-Contact rate, which is 34% higher relative to last year and a ridiculous 62% higher relative to two years ago. In only two years time he’s gone from the seventh lowest O-Contact rate out of 159 qualified MLB batters to the cusp of the upper third (64th out of 178), and I can only speculate if that might be at least part of the driving force behind such a paltry .259 BABIP despite a lofty 23.5% line drive rate.

Says Baseball Reference, Swisher’s BABIP on ground balls stands at .164, roughly four base hits worse than the near-league average .236 mark that he posted in 2006-07, which could possibly be attributed to softly rolling over on bad pitches outside of the zone. I don’t know. I don’t watch the games. Four hits isn’t much anyway. Add in the small handful of air balls that Swisher has also been “unlucky” on, and PrOPS thinks his BABIP should be sitting at .340 for a difference of 13 hits (several more than I’d have guessed), pumping his measly .228/.343/.368 line up to a robust .288/.393/.477, a difference of roughly a dozen runs that would be good enough to leapfrog him from 49th to 12th in the AL in OPS.

]]> By: David Appelman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35419 David Appelman Tue, 10 Jun 2008 20:32:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35419 While I agree the points about Swisher, in that it appears he's hit a bit of bad luck, though his O-Swing% is up nearly 3% suggesting he isn't quite as selective as he used to be. In any case.... I'm not sure how Chicago being up 6.5 games in the AL Central has anything to do with who is winning this trade. Swisher has not been good this year. Among qualified AL outfielders he is bottom 10 in WPA and bottom 5 in BRAA. Also, in Marc's defense, in the article he didn't exactly slam the door shut on how history will view this trade, though I'll admit that is not what the title insinuates. But if you just look at the raw numbers, it does appear the trade has worked out better for the Athletics, <b>so far</b>. While I agree the points about Swisher, in that it appears he’s hit a bit of bad luck, though his O-Swing% is up nearly 3% suggesting he isn’t quite as selective as he used to be. In any case…. I’m not sure how Chicago being up 6.5 games in the AL Central has anything to do with who is winning this trade.

Swisher has not been good this year. Among qualified AL outfielders he is bottom 10 in WPA and bottom 5 in BRAA.

Also, in Marc’s defense, in the article he didn’t exactly slam the door shut on how history will view this trade, though I’ll admit that is not what the title insinuates.

But if you just look at the raw numbers, it does appear the trade has worked out better for the Athletics, so far.

]]> By: get untracked http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35418 get untracked Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:46:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35418 This was a remarkably uninformed blog post given (1) the excellent points made in the first comment, (2) the fact that 60 games of a season is far too few to judge Swisher's season, let alone the future careers of the minor leaguers received by Oakland, and (3) that Chicago is 6.5 games up in the AL Central. This was a remarkably uninformed blog post given (1) the excellent points made in the first comment, (2) the fact that 60 games of a season is far too few to judge Swisher’s season, let alone the future careers of the minor leaguers received by Oakland, and (3) that Chicago is 6.5 games up in the AL Central.

]]> By: rrolek http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35416 rrolek Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:07:06 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35416 Don't forget Britt Burns. Traded in 1985 after his 26 yr old season to the Yankees. Never pitched again (bad hip IIRC) Don’t forget Britt Burns. Traded in 1985 after his 26 yr old season to the Yankees. Never pitched again (bad hip IIRC)

]]> By: Yakker http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35415 Yakker Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:01:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35415 Seems far too early to assess this one, but I think this write-up tilts a little with anti-Sox (or pro-Beane) bias. Swisher will come around, if his .258 BABIP (on an LD% of 23.5%) is any guide. Add in FDLS's injury and Gio's AAA stats, and I'm not sure there's any clear winner (yet) in this one. Seems far too early to assess this one, but I think this write-up tilts a little with anti-Sox (or pro-Beane) bias.

Swisher will come around, if his .258 BABIP (on an LD% of 23.5%) is any guide. Add in FDLS’s injury and Gio’s AAA stats, and I’m not sure there’s any clear winner (yet) in this one.

]]> By: David Golebiewski http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35414 David Golebiewski Tue, 10 Jun 2008 18:50:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/athletics-get-best-of-swisher-deal/#comment-35414 I would have to disagree with the assertion that the A's are winning this deal. A closer look at Swisher's batted ball data shows that essentially nothing has changed about his game. His walks remain high, his line drive percentage is high and he's actually hitting slightly fewer groundballs while whiffing less. The only negative aspect of Swisher's stats is his BABIP, which is an extremely low .259. Given his line drive percentage (21%, according to First Inning), we should expect Swish to be batting about .320 on balls in play. If we adjust his line to add the additional .61 points, his line is .289/.404/.447 (and that assumes all were singles). In other words, nothing is wrong with Swish. I would have to disagree with the assertion that the A’s are winning this deal.

A closer look at Swisher’s batted ball data shows that essentially nothing has changed about his game. His walks remain high, his line drive percentage is high and he’s actually hitting slightly fewer groundballs while whiffing less. The only negative aspect of Swisher’s stats is his BABIP, which is an extremely low .259. Given his line drive percentage (21%, according to First Inning), we should expect Swish to be batting about .320 on balls in play. If we adjust his line to add the additional .61 points, his line is .289/.404/.447 (and that assumes all were singles). In other words, nothing is wrong with Swish.

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