• Regarding the top-est of the top prospects, they’re all generally where you’d expect. Law ranks Mike Trout first of the Trout-Bryce Harper-Matt Moore triumvirate. Manny Machado at fourth overall is probably slightly higher than on other lists you’ll see, but not particularly so. Atlanta right-handed prospect Julio Teheran at 18th overall is decidedly lower than on other lists. (Teheran was, for example, ranked fourth, fourth, fourth, and sixth, respectively, by Baseball America’s Jim Callis, J.J. Cooper, Will Lingo, and John Manuel on their top-50 lists from the BA Prospect Handbook.)
Various Farm Rankings
With many prospect lists having already been completed, or at least nearing completion, a few sites/publications have released farm, or organizational talent, rankings. Here are some notable top fives.
by Carson Cistulli - February 8, 2012
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Episode 138
Chris Harris and Chris Thomas are the editors of the internet site BaseballCardPedia, the only free and editable encyclopedia dedicated to baseball cards. In this episode, Chrises Harris and Thomas discuss the BaseballCardPedia project and provide a primer of sort for anyone interested in becoming part of The Hobby.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
Table: Starting Pitcher xFIP by Fastball Velocity, 2002-11
Over the last couple days, I published a two-part piece looking both at (a) the accomplishment that is Michael Pineda‘s combination of fastball velocity and control and (b) which pitchers from the high minors last season were capable of at least approximating Pineda’s 2010 in Double- and Triple-A.
As part of the second piece, I included a table that looked at xFIP by different “buckets” of velocity — from less-than 85 mph, increasing incrementally by 1 mph all the way to greater-than 95 mph. What might not have been entirely obvious is that the data sample included only the 612 starting pitchers from 2002 to ’11 who walked 7% or fewer batters.
So, below, I’m publishing another version of that table with the full sample of 1708 player seasons. This is xFIP by velocity for every pitcher, 2002-11, who threw 50 or more innings and made at least half of his appearances as a starter. The # sign is the number of player seasons, 2002-11, in that particular bucket; the xFIP is the average xFIP of all the player seasons in that bucket; and STD is the standard deviation of xFIP for the player seasons in that bucket.
by Carson Cistulli - February 7, 2012
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Episode 137
Guest Dayn Perry begins this episode by cursing both (a) the existence of the host and (b) all of life. Baseball topics are also discussed, including (and likely limited to): Edwin Jackson, how he’s not a Cardinal; the 1985 World Series (a.k.a. The Series That Rocked Missouri); and FanGraphs+, what it offers.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
by Carson Cistulli - February 7, 2012
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Yesterday, as Part 1 of this post, I looked at the accomplishment that was Michael Pineda‘s 2010 season in the minor leagues — an accomplishment, specifically, for his ability to limit walks while simultanously throwing a fastball with excellent velocity.
As was noted in that piece, no other starter with 50-plus innings in either Double- or Triple-A (again, in 2010) was able to sit at around 95 mph with his fastball while also walking fewer than 7.0% of batters faced. Pineda, in fact, accomplished this feat at both Double- and Triple-A, walking 5.4% of opposing batters in 77.0 innings at Double-A West Tenn and then 6.5% of opposing batters in 62.1 innings at Triple-A Tacoma.
In this post, I’ll be looking at which players performed similarly in the high minors last season to how Pineda did in 2010.
by Carson Cistulli - February 7, 2012
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Today’s edition of Offseason Notes concerns the Caribbean Series entirely.
Escogido Wins Caribbean Series
Despite losing 7-0 to Venezuelan entry Tigres de Aragua, Dominican side Leones del Escogido clinched the Caribbean Series last night with the 4-3 loss of their only mathematical competitor, Mexico’s Yaquis de Obregon, to Puerto Rican club Indios de Mayaguez. (Scoreboard.)
In fact, Obregon was winning their game 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth, but conceded one run each in the eighth and ninth innings to lose the game.
by Carson Cistulli - February 6, 2012
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Episode 136
The Washington Nationals recently signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year, $11 million deal. Does the addition of Jackson make the Nats a contender? How would the definition of “contender” change if a second wild-card playoff spot were installed? Also, the Baltimore and Colorado trade: what’s the deal with that? Managing editor Dave Cameron answers all these questions unblinkingly.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
by Carson Cistulli - February 6, 2012
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Ideas for this post came from conversations with Dave Cameron on recent episodes of FanGraphs Audio. Most scouting info is courtesy Baseball America.
Allow me to establish immediately that the title of this post is, in part, disingenuous: insofar as every player is unique, there is no “Next Michael Pineda.” There are pitchers who will surprise us with their success in 2012, for sure — some of them in a way similar to how Michael Pineda surprised us in 2011 — but none of them, obviously, will do it in precisely the same way that Pineda did.
Having said that, allow me to also submit that Michael Pineda absolutely represents a type of pitcher who is perhaps more likely to succeed than we (or, at least, than the present author) has, at one point, assumed.
To get a sense of what I mean, let’s consider the relative prospect statuses, over the last three years, of Pineda and the player (Jesus Montero) for whom he was traded this offseason.
Caribbean Series Notes Current Standings
Here are the current standings of the Caribbean Series, after four days of games, presented in a sortable HTML table.
by Carson Cistulli - February 3, 2012
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This edition of the player-profile game is appearing at 11:30am Central Time because the author is an idiot.
As announced Wednesday, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion. We’ll have more details on the guide — set to be released on Monday — very shortly.
In the meantime, however, we’re playing the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages a couple offseasons ago.
The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.
First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!
Today’s entry comes in form of three shorter profiles. To answer correctly, respondents must identify all three players.
Because of the difficulty of this round, multiple attempts are allowed. If no one has the correct answer by 1pm ET, we will select the closest answer.
Caribbean Series Scores from Yesterday
Puerto Rican team Mayaguez defeated Venezuelan Winter League champion Aragua, 3-1 (box).
Escogido of the Dominican Winter League defeated Mexican Pacific League side Obregon, 2-1 (box).
Notes on Those Games
• Mayaguez right-hander Nelson Figueroa did this: 6.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 HR.
• There was precisely one extra-base hit between the two games: Mayaguez center fielder Jesus Feliciano‘s second-inning ground-rule double.
• Right-hander Jairo Asencio recorded the save for Escogido, striking out two in an inning of work. Asencio was the boss of the DWL for much of the season, finishing second on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard.
by Carson Cistulli - February 2, 2012
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Episode 135
Bill Baer is the proprietor of Phillies internet weblog Crashburn Alley, a volume tweeter, and — of late — author of a real book called 100 Things Phillies Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. Topics discussed: Bobby Abreu, how he’s good; cheesesteaks, how they’re delicious; Domonic Brown, how he’s blocked.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
by Carson Cistulli - February 2, 2012
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Per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, 28-year-old right-hander Edwin Jackson and the Washington Nationals have reached an agreement on a one-year deal worth somewhere in the $8-12 million range. Pending a physical, Jackson joins a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and recent acquisition (in a trade with Oakland) Gio Gonzalez.
What is there to say about Jackson, specifically, that FanGraphs hasn’t said already? The market for him has been — and continued this offseason to be — underwhelming relative to his production (link). It’s likely to continue to be underwhelming (link). He (Jackson) has become a journeymen despite possessing youth, physical tools, and an increasingly robust resume (link).
For three consecutive years now, Jackson has been worth between 3.5 and 4.0 WAR — which suggests that, provided he’s healthy, another season in the 3.5-4.0 WAR range wouldn’t be shocking. It also suggests that, even were a team to have given him $15 million, that would still probably have been on the low-end of fair market value.
The question that’s more interesting for the time being is this one: what, precisely, are the Nats hoping to accomplish with the Jackson deal?
Let’s start first of all by establishing this: the addition of Jackson — and subtraction, presumably, of either John Lannan or Chien-Ming Wang — doesn’t make the Nats insta-contenders. Per a too-early standings projection conducted last week by the Replacement Level Yankees blog (using Marcels as an input), the Nats finished with 83 wins; the Phillies and Braves, with 90 and 89, respectively. The most recent iteration of OLIVER standings projects the Nats to finish with 81 wins — a full 10 games behind the would-be first-place Braves.
by Carson Cistulli - February 2, 2012
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Play the player-profile game again tomorrow (Friday) at 11:30am ET. We’re giving away a free copy of the 2012 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).
As announced yesterday, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion. We’ll have more details on the guide — set to be released on Monday — very shortly.
In the meantime, however, we’re playing the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages a couple offseasons ago.
The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.
First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!
Today’s entry comes to us courtesy of Mr. Patrick Dubuque.
by Carson Cistulli - February 2, 2012
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Today’s edition of Offseason Notes concerns the Caribbean Series entirely.
Programming Note: Caribbean Series Begins Today
As noted previously in this column, the Caribbean Series begins today in Santo Domingo.
The first game, between Aragua (of the Venezuelan Winter League) and Mayaguez (Puerto Rican Winter League) begins at 1:45pm ET. Obregon (Mexican Pacific League) and Escogido (Dominican Winter League) play later in the day, at 5:55pm ET.
by Carson Cistulli - February 1, 2012
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Episode 134
Mr. Aaron Gleeman is world famous, both for his contributions to NBC’s Hardball Talk and for his longstanding blog AaronGleeman.com. Did you know, however, that his application to write for the Univ. of Minnesota’s newspaper was rejected a full nine (9!) times? We examine that, and other personal weaknesses, on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
by Carson Cistulli - February 1, 2012
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GM Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays have made their deal with former Reds, Brewers, and Rangers closer Francisco Cordero — to a one-year deal worth $4.5 million — official, reports Jon Heyman of CBS.
A successful high-leverage reliever at one point, who struck out more than 25% of batters faced every season between 2003 and 2008, Cordero’s velocity — and with it, his performance — has declined in recent seasons. Last season, with his fastball velocity having dropped to 93.0 mph per PITCHf/x — from 95.0 mph in 2009, for example — Cordero posted his worst strikeout rate (15.3%) since 2000 and second-worst xFIP- (108). His fastball usage from last season — at a career low 37.4%, per PITCHf/x — reflects Cordero’s changed approach.
This offseason, Toronto has traded for Sergio Santos (due just $1 million), reacquired Frasor ($3.75 million), signed Darren Oliver ($4.5 million), and now Cordero. That’s almost an entire bullpen for just under $14 million — i.e. only slightly more than what Jonathan Papelbon will be making per annum for the next four years. As Alex Lewin demonstrated in a piece from late November, the risk associated with that sort of long-term reliever contract generally doesn’t merit the potential rewards. The Blue Jays are clearly proceeding with that notion in mind.
by Carson Cistulli - February 1, 2012
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Play the player-profile game again on Thursday and Friday of this week at 11:30am ET. Each day, we’re giving away a free copy of the 2012 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).
Next Monday (or so says my colleague Eno Sarris), FanGraphs will release the third annual edition its very useful and even more affordable fantasy companion, The Second Opinion. Thanks to the vision of Mr. Sarris, along with the hard work of many of FanGraphs’ own contributors, this year’s edition promises to build upon last season’s sophomore effort, while still maintaining the white-hot analysis that is FanGraphs’ trademark.
We will have more details on the guide very shortly. In the meantime, however, it makes sense to offer some previews of what readers can expect from this year’s Second Opinion. These peeks promise to be especially sneaky as they’ll come in the form of the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages not so long ago.
The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.
For the first reader who guesses correctly (in the comments section below), we offer you, if you can even believe it, a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!
Today’s entry comes to us courtesy the unbearably handsome Mike Axisa.
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