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by Marc Hulet - March 19, 2010
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The Florida Marlins club seems to be in a perpetual rebuilding mode. There will be few veterans to be found on the field for the club in 2010: John Baker (29), Dan Uggla (30), Jorge Cantu (28), and Cody Ross (29) are the old men of the group. Other starters – all under the age of 27 – include Gaby Sanchez (26), Hanley Ramirez (26), Chris Coghlan (24), and Cameron Maybin (22). In other words, only one projected starter for the Marlins club is 30 years of age or older. The only player born in the ’70s is part-timer Wes Helms at 33.
The only pitcher on the 40-man roster born in the ’70s is Brian Sanches and he has never spent a full season in the Majors. The starting rotation could include the likes of Josh Johnson (26), Ricky Nolasco (27), Chris Volstad (23), Andrew Miller (24), Anibal Sanchez (26), Sean West (23), and Rick VandenHurk (25). The man-child in charge of closing out games – Leo Nunez – is just 27 years of age. The youth movement is alive and well in Florida.
It’s a good thing that the pitching staff is so young, because the club’s mound depth in the minor leagues is not the greatest. The top pitcher is Ryan Tucker, but he’s likely a long-term reliever and there are health questions surrounding him. The next best arms belong to ‘09 first round pick Chad James and little-known Jhan Marinez. Both are raw and neither is a sure thing at this point.
The future offense looks much brighter, thanks to the presence of two highly-regarded prospects in outfielder Mike Stanton and first baseman Logan Morrison. Stanton is a good, young player with 30-homer potential but he could also end up with Mark-Reynolds-like strikeout totals. Morrison projects to have average home run power at best for a first baseman but he should provide gap power and a good batting average (perhaps in the mold of Lyle Overbay). Third baseman Matt Dominguez, a former No. 1 pick and an excellent defensive player, still has promise but questions remain about how well he’ll hit in the Majors. My favorite sleeper on the team is Bryan Petersen and he should develop into a solid No. 4 outfielder in the worst case scenario.
Because the club rarely lets its top players make it to free agency (they get too expensive in years 3-6) the club will never be able to load up on extra picks in the amateur draft like some rebuilding clubs. That means that the club has to be very successful in trading its players. Some of the players acquired via the draft include Nolasco, Maybin, Ramirez, and Nunez. Cantu was rescued off of the scrap heap. The club did a nice job of stealing Uggla from the Arizona organization in the Rule 5 draft. Those are the types of moves that the Marlins organization is going to have to continue to do well in order to compete.
Johnson is probably the club’s best draft pick, as a former fourth round selection out of an Oklahoma high school. The club also did a nice job with Coghlan, although his future will be much brighter back at his natural position of second base. His offensive skill set is not well-suited to left field. Scouting director Stan Meek returns in 2010 for his eighth season overseeing the amateur draft and he has produced a rather inconsistent track record. The club has had more success in later rounds of the draft than it has with first round picks. Some of the first round picks during Meek’s time as director include Taylor Tankersley, Brett Sinkbeil, Kyle Skipworth, Jeff Allison, and Jeremy Hermida.
General manager Mike Hill enters his third season after taking over from Larry Beinfest in late 2007. Hill has yet to really stamp his seal on the club with few major moves during his tenure. Uggla is likely not long for Florida due to his expensive contract but the general manager may have waited too long to trade the defensively-challenged second baseman. His value is diminishing every day as clubs put more emphasis on defensive value and Uggla is also getting closer and closer to free agency. Brian Chattin will oversee the minor leagues this season as director of player development.
The organization certainly has some good, young talent but it remains to be seen if the club will allow those players to stick around long enough to help this organization compete long term.
by Marc Hulet - March 18, 2010
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The San Francisco Giants organization has a reputation for being a geriatric ward for professional athletes – and deservedly so. General manager Brian Sabean’s love of veteran players (at the expense of promising youngsters) has come under fire in recent seasons and there appears to be a slow change a foot.
Corner infielder Pablo Sandoval has shocked just about everyone with his immediate success in the Majors. Just 23, he has a .333 batting average and .924 OPS in 194 big league games. The only thing that could seemingly derail this roly-poly star is his conditioning. The club also appears committed to right-fielder Nate Schierholtz, who is just 26.
Beyond that, though, the club is trotting out a number of veterans on the wrong side of their career peaks – Mark DeRosa, Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, Aubrey Huff, and Bengie Molina. The re-signing this past off-season of Molina is the most recent head-scratcher. Former top draft pick Buster Posey appears ready to be an everyday contributor behind the dish, but he will now either spend the majority of the year in the minors or he’ll play numerous positions in the Majors (thanks to his athleticism). The choice to trade for second baseman Freddy Sanchez last season was also a little interesting considering that the club gave up a promising arm in Tim Alderson for the injury-prone veteran.
Despite shedding Alderson, though, the club still has a lot of good, young arms in the Major League rotation. Mr. Cy Young Tim Lincecum is perhaps the best young pitcher in all of baseball at the age of 25. Matt Cain has been in the rotation for four full seasons but he’s still just 25 and is a workhorse. Jonathan Sanchez, 27, also has promise, but he’s quite inconsistent. Rookie Madison Bumgarner is a favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, but there is concern over his long-term loss of his fastball velocity. The club also has some promising arms in the bullpen with the likes of Sergio Romo, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, and Dan Runzler. The latter could develop into the club’s closer of the future.
The Giants organization also has some more offensive help in the upper minors, including shortstop Brandon Crawford, and outfielders Roger Kieschnick and Thomas Neal. The club’s top young pitcher, ‘09 No. 1 draft pick Zach Wheeler, is probably about four years away from the Majors. Organizational depth is certainly not a strength for this club.
The ‘09 draft was OK, but nothing to get too excited about after Wheeler. The ‘08 draft nabbed the likes of Posey, Kieschnick, and Crawford so it was quite impressive. Eighth round pick Scott Barnes was a great value but the club then tossed him to Cleveland for veteran first baseman Ryan Garko, who was then non-tendered at the end of the season.
The club had six choices in the first round and supplemental first round of the ‘07 draft. That netted the club Bumgarner and Alderson with the first two picks but the last four players have yet to develop as expected (two of those choices, though, were questionable at the time). The club then lacked second, third, and fourth round picks due to free agent signings. The selection of Runzler in the ninth round helped to make up for that.
Scouting director John Barr has overseen the last two drafts for the club, after taking over for Matt Nerland, and Barr returns for 2010. The farm director has changed three times in the past five years. Fred Stanley will return for his second season overseeing the club’s prospects.
For the organization to remain competitive long-term, it’s going to have to rely on developing (and holding on to) its own cost-controlled talent. Once an offensive juggernaut (thanks mostly to Barry Bonds), the club now has a pretty weak lineup and it lacks the minor-league resources to acquire players via the trade market. Fewer and fewer clubs are letting key players make it to free agency for their peak seasons, so that leaves in-house development as the best place to find talent. Hopefully the Giants front office has gotten the memo.
by Marc Hulet - March 17, 2010
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Same ol’ manager… but the times are much different. Manager Cito Gaston was at the helm of the last two Jays teams to win the World Series way back in 1992 and 1993. At that time, the Toronto club was the big spender in baseball and was able to attract top free agent talent like Dave Winfield. General manager Pat Gillick was able to engineer some outstanding trades, such as the deal with San Diego that landed both Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar. The club was also well known as the leader in signing and developing international talent.
Over the years, though, all of those strengths slowly faded away as the club’s fan base, revenue and budget eroded. Gaston was re-signed as the club’s manager during the 2008 season and this year will mark his last as manager (He’s shifting to consultant beginning in 2011). The 2010 season marks a new direction for the club with a new sheriff in town: Alex Anthopoulos, a young inexperienced GM who has sharpened his skills through years of front office experience. He was able to receive good value for Halladay despite the fact that everyone knew the pitcher had to be traded. Anthopoulos has made changes on the farm and, most importantly, in the scouting departments. The organization went from having one of the smallest scouting departments to one of the biggest in the game.
Ownership has openly committed to spending money if the front office can justify the move, as seen by the recent (rumored, but officially unconfirmed) signing of unproven Cuban prospect Adeinis Hechavarria for about $10 million. The club also made a hard push for another Cuban, left-handed starter Aroldis Chapman, who ultimately signed with Cincinnati for mega-bucks.
Toronto will enter the 2010 amateur draft with the 11th overall pick and something to prove after blowing three of its four top picks in 2009, which may have been one of the last straws that broke the former GM’s back. The organization also has nine picks in the first three rounds of the 2010 draft, so it has a real chance to improve the talent and depth in the system. With that said, the club had a similar draft bonanza in ‘07 and those prospects haven’t developed quite as well as the organization had hoped. The club also has its back up against the wall with a couple of the picks (those received for failing to sign ‘09 draft picks James Paxton, Jake Eliopoulos, and Jake Barrett). The representatives for the players chosen in those slots will know that the club has to sign the picks this season or they will lose those compensation picks for 2011.
Although the ‘10 club clearly cannot compete with the likes of Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay, there are building blocks in place that give Canadian fans a hope for the (near-ish) future. Outfielders Adam Lind (26) and Travis Snider (22) could form the middle of the order for years to come. Aaron Hill, soon-to-be-28, could have more valuable as a trading chip than as the club’s second baseman over the next five to seven years, especially if he proves his power outburst in ‘09 was no fluke. In the high minors, the club also has some interesting names in first baseman Brett Wallace (acquired in the Roy Halladay fallout), catcher J.P. Arencibia, second baseman Brad Emaus, and outfielder Moises Sierra. A few disappointing drafts have left the low minors barren, save for a few names like catcher Carlos Perez and shortstop Tyler Pastornicky.
On the mound, the club has a lot of potential but few proven, young pitchers. Ricky Romero enters 2010 as the No. 1 guy in the rotation, but he’s only in his second season in the Majors. Other names to keep in mind are Brandon Morrow (obtained from Seattle this past off-season), Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil. The club could also see contributions from rookies Kyle Drabek (another part of the Halladay loot), Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Henderson Alvarez may have the highest ceiling, but he’ll spend a good portion of 2010 in high-A ball. The club also likes what its seen from ‘09 No. 1 draft pick Chad Jenkins, who should join Alvarez in Dunedin. Right-hander Danny Farquhar could help out in the bullpen by mid-season.
The good news is that the club has a lot of flexibility when it comes time to work these young (inexpensive) players into the lineup. The only bad long-term contract on the team is for Vernon Wells. Hill has a very affordable contract that could make him extremely attractive on the trade market. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next new years, and a lot of patience will be needed, but the final destination looks promising.
by Marc Hulet - March 16, 2010
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The San Diego Padres organization is in a transitional period. With the spacious PETCO Park, the club is making the shift to a team that focuses on pitching and defense but the big-league roster currently features few, if any, impact MLB players outside of Adrian Gonzalez.
The club’s best young offensive player is Kyle Blanks but he’s not really well-suited to the park. At 6′8” and 285 lbs, the 23-year-old prospect’s game is power – not speed. He’s currently miscast as a left-fielder due to Gonzalez’ place at first base. Other young outfielders like Aaron Cunningham and Will Venable are probably fourth outfielders on playoff teams. Third baseman Chase Headley has been bounced around positions (left field, third base) despite having played just 255 big league games so sticking to one spot will be good for his development. He showed some promise last season but his offensive ability has been stunted by the power-dampening effects of the home ballpark.
Rule 5 steal Everth Cabrera had a nice rookie season but expectations for the shortstop were low and many talented rookies have struggled during their sophomore seasons. We don’t know what to expect from the 23-year-old infielder in the long-term. With that said, he’s the type of player (young, fast, promising on defense) that the club should focus on in trades, as well as the amateur draft.
On the mound, the organization has focused recently on filling holes with organizational soldiers, inexpensive free agents with low ceilings, and rejects from other organizations. The big ballpark means that the club can turn a fringe big leaguer into a league-average starter. The best pitcher currently on the staff, from a future talent standpoint, is Mat Latos, who has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter – even outside of San Diego. The club’s next best pitching prospect is Simon Castro, a 2006 international free agent signing.
The club did a nice job of focusing on toolsy and athletic players in the ‘09 draft. It nabbed two prep outfielders with its first two picks in Donavan Tate and Everett Williams. On the downside, both players will require significant development time. The organization’s strength is definitely in its offensive depth – especially at third base. The club has Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Edinson Rincon currently in the pipeline, although the club is looking at shifting Rincon to the outfield (another area that’s getting crowded). Forsythe’s line-drive approach may make him the best-suited for a role in San Diego, although the other two could have higher ceilings, especially if they’re traded to other organizations (for high-ceiling pitching help).
The club’s history of drafting in the first round is not good… and I’m being very generous with that statement. The best pick over the past 10 years (outside of Tate, perhaps) is Khalil Greene. The club scored in the ‘08 amateur draft with the likes of Jaff Decker, Forsythe and Darnell (as well as Blake Tekotte and Sawyer Carroll, who should be useful fourth or platoon outfielders). With eight picks before the third round of the ‘07 draft, the club infused some depth in the system but it went with lower-ceiling college picks and that has not turned out well from a talent standpoint. Only one player out of the eight (pitcher Cory Luebke) is a Top-10 talent.
The club has made some noise on the international market by handing out some big bucks, but it’s still too early to know if the right decisions were made.
The trade market for Gonzalez heated up last season but the club may have whiffed on the opportunity. He has a very favorable contract but the first baseman’s value as a trade commodity diminishes with each season that falls off of his contract (which expires after a club option for 2011). Even in the National League West, this team is not going to compete over the next two seasons and Gonzalez is almost assuredly going to be too expensive for the organization to re-sign after 2011. Boston was said to be hot-and-heavy for the veteran first baseman and the Padres organization may have missed an opportunity to nab some talented, young players although none of us truly know what was offered (and rejected).
The Padres organization appears pointed in the right direction. It appears to have the right people for the job. Now it just needs to execute and have a little luck, too. New general manager Jed Hoyer has changed things up in both the scouting and development areas. Scouting director Bill Gayton was let go after nine seasons and has been replaced by Jaron Madison. Farm director Grady Fuson was let go in ‘09 and Randy Smith is now the go-to guy. It will be important for this organization to ensure that everyone is on the same mission. With a modest budget, the club needs to make every opportunity count.
by Marc Hulet - March 16, 2010
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It’s been a slow climb back to respectability for the former Montreal Expos franchise, now known as the Washington Nationals. Years of league control slashed the organization’s budget, which was certainly felt in both the player development and scouting/draft areas.
With a modest budget, the big-league club relies on a lot of young players. Outfielder Elijah Dukes has been around for a while but he’s still just 25 years old. The Rays organization gave up on him due to ongoing make-up/attitude issues and the Nationals organization made a smart decision to jump on him while his value was low. Shortstop Ian Desmond has been touted as the Next Great Thing for a few years now, but he’s finally ready to make good on the hype. Unfortunately, the club made a poor decision to give incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman a contract extension, which has now become the elephant in the room. The best young fielder on the team, though, is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is now in his fifth full season in the Majors. The 25-year-old infielder is the club’s best hitter and one of only two high first round picks that the club has made good on in the past 10 years.
The other good pick is Mr. Stephen Strasburg, although the 2009 first overall pick in the entire draft has yet to throw an regular season pro pitch (He did throw in the ‘09 Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects). Although he may already be better than any of the other pitchers currently in the Nationals’ starting rotation, Strasburg is probably headed for the minors (double-A or triple-A) for the first month or so. The club has another talented, young pitcher in Jordan Zimmermann, but he was derailed by Tommy John surgery and will not be back at full strength until 2011. Southpaw John Lannan is entering his third full season in the Majors and is a sign that the club can find diamonds in the rough. The former 11th round pick from 2005 has been an innings-eater over the past two seasons and is still just 25.
There are a few more good, young players on the way in catcher Derek Norris, reliever Drew Storen, and shortstop Danny Espinosa but the depth in the system is still not great, especially on the mound. The club has not shown much willingness to spend on international players. The draft results have also been quite modest considering the club’s high ranks in the draft orders. Decisions to re-sign fringe veterans like Guzman and Ronnie Belliard – dime-a-dozen players in the free agent market – have robbed the rebuilding club of valuable supplemental draft picks.
Scouting director Dana Brown, who held the position for eight years, has moved on to a new role with the Toronto Blue Jays so the drafts will now be overseen by Kris Kline. Doug Harris is the club’s director of player development; that role has been a bit of a revolving door over the past five years so some stability might be good for the organization.
The club has shown an ability to acquire talented, young players, whose values have slipped (Dukes, Lastings Milledge, now in Pittsburgh), in trades but it has yet to truly master the amateur draft or player development. A lack of desire to play ball in the international market is also hurting an organization that was once well-known for its pursuits overseas (Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, to name just a few). More money needs to be spent on scouting, signing and developing in-house talent. Signing free agents like Adam Kennedy and trading for players like Nyjer Morgan serve a purposes – but only to act as placeholders for inexpensive, team-controlled prospects already developing in the pipeline. This organization is starting to figure it out, but it still has a long way to go.
by Marc Hulet - March 12, 2010
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Well, not everyone agreed with my Top 50 AL prospects or my Top 50 NL prospects, but that’s to be expected. From a traffic perspective, they were hugely popular, so hopefully everyone will enjoy critiquing the Top 100. After all, that’s what they’re hear for: we love reader input at FanGraphs. (As long as it’s constructive, that is.) I don’t think you can really take just one list/point-of-view and consider it prospect gospel; you have to read a variety of opinions, as no one person is right on every prospect or with every ranking.
So, with no further ado…
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
11. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
12. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
13. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
16. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
17. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
18. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
19. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
20. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
21. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
22. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
23. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
24. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
25. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
26. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
27. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
28. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
29. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
30. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
31. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
32. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
33. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
34. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
35. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
36. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
37. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
38. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
39. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
40. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels
41. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
42. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
43. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
44. Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
45. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
46. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
47. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
48. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
49. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
50. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics
51. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
52. Matthew Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
53. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
54. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
55. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
56. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
57. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
58. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
59. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
60. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
61. Zach McAllister, RHP, New York Yankees
62. Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
63. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
64. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
65. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
66. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
67. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
68. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
69. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
70. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
71. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
72. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox
73. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
74. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
75. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
76. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
77. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
78. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
79. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
80. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
81. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
82. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
83. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
84. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
85. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
86. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays
87. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
88. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
89. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
90. Nick Barnese, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
91. Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
92. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
93. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
94. Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
95. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
96. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
97. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
98. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
99. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
100. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
by Marc Hulet - March 11, 2010
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Following up the recent Top 10 lists for each club in Major League Baseball, we now have the Top 50 prospects in the National League. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Top 50 prospects. Tomorrow, we’ll combine them together and see how the Top 100 MLB Prospects list breaks down.
The Top 10 NL Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
4. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
5. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
8. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Just Missed the Top 10
11. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
12. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
13. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
14. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
15. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
17. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
20. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
The Middle of the Pack
21. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
22. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
23. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
24. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
25. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
27. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
28. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
29. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
30. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
31. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
32. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
33. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
34. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
35. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
36. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
37. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
38. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
39. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
40. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
The Final 10 NL Prospects
41. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
42. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
43. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
44. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
45. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
46. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
48. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
49. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
50. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
by Marc Hulet - March 10, 2010
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Following up the recent Top 10 lists for each club in Major League Baseball, we now have the Top 50 prospects in the American League. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the Top 50 prospects in the National League. On Friday, we’ll unveil the Top 100 MLB prospects list, which will be a blend of the two lists. I’d like to thank both Bryan Smith and Erik Manning for their inputs on the lists.
We have a pretty exciting year planned for prospect analysis here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs… so be sure to keep us bookmarked. It’s going to be an exciting year.
The Top 10 AL Prospects
1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
3. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
4. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
5. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
6. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
7. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
8. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
9. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
10. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Just Missed the Top 10
11. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
12. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
13. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
14. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
16. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
17. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
18. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
19. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
20. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
The Middle of the Pack
21. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels
22. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
23. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
24. Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
25. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
26. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
27. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics
28. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
29. Matthew Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
30. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
31. Zach McAllister, RHP, New York Yankees
32. Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
33. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
34. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
35. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
36. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
37. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
38. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox
39. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
40. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
The Final 10 AL Prospects
41. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
42. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
44. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
45. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
46. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays
47. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
48. Nick Barnese, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
49. Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
50. Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
So there you have it… Keep in mind that these lists – regardless of who does them – are subjective and I would probably create a slightly different list if I were to do it next week. There are certainly some players that I could rank a little lower or a little higher and still feel pretty good about it.
by Marc Hulet - March 9, 2010
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Whew. What you have before you is a project that spanned more than five months and included more than 30,000 words. To say that it was a massive undertaking for one person would be an understatement but it was a fun (and challenging) time. I want to thank all the readers for their (mostly constructive) comments; although I have been covering the minors for more than five years, this was my first attempt at my own Top 10 lists for every organization in Major League Baseball.
If you’re reading these lists for the first time, keep in mind that they do not include 2009 draft picks or international signings. Top 10 lists including ‘09 draft picks can be found in FanGraphs’ 2010 Second Opinion fantasy companion.
A special thanks to all those who provided me with background information.
American League West
Texas Rangers | Top Prospect: Neftali Feliz, Starting Pitcher (MLB)
Seattle Mariners | Top Prospect: Michael Saunders, Outfielder (MLB)
Oakland Athletics | Top Prospect: Chris Carter, First Baseman (AAA)
Los Angeles Angels | Top Prospect: Hank Conger, Catcher (AA)
National League West
Colorado Rockies | Top Prospect: Christian Friedrich, Starting Pitcher (A+)
San Francisco Giants | Top Prospect: Buster Posey, Catcher (MLB)
San Diego Padres | Top Prospect: Simon Castro, Starting Pitcher (A-)
Los Angeles Dodgers | Top Prospect: Devaris Gordon, Shortstop (A-)
Arizona Diamondbacks | Top Prospect: Jarrod Parker, Starting Pitcher (AA)
American League Central
Kansas City Royals | Top Prospect: Mike Montgomery, Starting Pitcher (A+)
Detroit Tigers | Top Prospect: Casey Crosby, Starting Pitcher (A-)
Chicago White Sox | Top Prospect: Tyler Flowers, Catcher (AAA)
Cleveland Indians | Top Prospect: Carlos Santana, Catcher (AA)
Minnesota Twins | Top Prospect: Aaron Hicks, Outfielder (A-)
National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals | Top Prospect: Lance Lynn, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Pittsburgh Pirates | Top Prospect: Pedro Alvarez, Third baseman (AA)
Cincinnati Reds | Top Prospect: Yonder Alonso, First baseman (AA)
Chicago Cubs | Top Prospect: Andrew Cashner, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Milwaukee Brewers | Top Prospect: Alcides Escobar, Shortstop (MLB)
Houston Astros | Top Prospect: Jason Castro, Catcher (AA)
American League East
Toronto Blue Jays | Top Prospect: Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (AAA)
Boston Red Sox | Top Prospect: Casey Kelly, RHP (A+)
Tampa Bay Rays | Top Prospect: Desmond Jennings, OF (AAA)
Baltimore Orioles | Top Prospect: Brian Matusz, LHP (MLB)
New York Yankees | Top Prospect: Jesus Montero, C (AA)
National League East
Washington Nationals | Top Prospect: Stephen Strasburg, RHP (AFL)
Philadelphia Phillies | Top Prospect: Domonic Brown, OF (AA)
Florida Marlins | Top Prospect: Michael Stanton, OF (AA)
Atlanta Braves | Top Prospect: Jason Heyward, OF (AAA)
New York Mets | Top Prospect: Fernando Martinez, OF (MLB)
by Marc Hulet - March 8, 2010
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General Manager: Dan O’Dowd
Farm Director: Marc Gustafson
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)
The Rockies organization does not have the strongest system in the game but it’s far from the weakest and you have to be impressed with how many top prospects are homegrown talent. This organization knows how to find, sign and develop prospects. Six of the 10 prospects were international free agent signings and all 10 were originally signed by the club (a rare feat).
1. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Eastern Kentucky University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up
Friedrich continues to prove that he was an absolute steal as the 25th overall pick in the ‘08 draft. He cruised through low-A ball in ‘09 by posting a 1.92 FIP and a strikeout rate of 13.10 K/9 in 45.1 innings. The left-hander then moved up to high-A where he had a 2.55 FIP and allowed just 59 hits in 74.1 innings. His strikeout rate remained excellent at 11.26 K/9 thanks to his plus curveball. He also shows an average ability at inducing ground balls. Friedrich did a nice job of holding his own against right-handed batters in ‘09 and he kept them to a .218 batting average. However, his walk rate did rise against them (3.43 vs righties, 2.32 vs lefties). Friedrich has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter and he could conceivably reach Colorado by the end of the season if he gets off to a fast start in double-A.
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, change-up, slider
Just 21 in ‘09, Chacin reached the Majors and appeared in nine games, including one start, for the big league club. Along with his four-game stint in triple-A, the right-hander showed that he still has some work to do – especially with his control (24 walks in 25.1 combined innings). Chacin spent the majority of the season in double-A, where he allowed 87 hits in 103.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.05 BB/9. His strikeout rate was a respectable 7.49 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was solid at 54%. With the ability to keep the ball on the ground and a repertoire that includes two plus pitches (fastball, change-up), Chacin should develop into a No. 3 starter at worst.
3. Wilin Rosario, C, High-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Rosario first showed up on prospect radars after a solid ‘08 season in which he hit .316/.371/.532 in 263 at-bats in rookie ball. The now 21-year-old catcher followed up the breakout season with a huge jump to high-A ball, bypassing both short-season ball and low-A ball. He hit OK, considering his age and the huge leap, with a .266/.297/.404 line in 203 at-bats. Unfortunately his walk rate was almost cut in half (from 8.2 to 4.5%) and his power output dropped (.217 to .138 ISO). A wrist injury ended his season prematurely but he was starting to hit well at the time (.725 OPS in June, .840 in July). Rosario returned for the Arizona Fall League and looked good. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has thrown out 46% of base runners over the past two seasons.
4. Hector Gomez, SS, High-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Gomez’ development was stunt in ‘08 when Tommy John surgery limited him to just one game. He came back in ‘09 and appeared in 83 games in high-A ball and showed improvement. The shortstop hit .275/.310/.423 in 338 at-bats. Because of a chronically-low walk rate, Gomez consistently posts a low on-base percentage, which limits his stolen base numbers (10 in 14 tries in ‘09). Despite his thin frame, the right-handed hitter has surprising pop, although it’s currently more of the line-drive variety than over-the-fence. Defensively, he has a rocket for an arm despite his surgery but he makes youthful mistakes. With Troy Tulowitzki currently manning shortstop in Colorado, the club can afford to be patient with Gomez.
5. Esmil Rogers, RHP, Majors
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 90-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up
Rogers has two distinct seasons in ‘09. He began the year in double-A and had few troubles with the hitters by posting a FIP of 2.51. He allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings. Promoted to triple-A, his FIP rose to 5.49 and he allowed 77 hits in 60.2 innings. The main issue was a lack of command and control. His walk rate rose from 1.18 in double-A to 5.19 BB/9 in triple-A. Rogers left balls up in the zone and was creamed; his HR/9 rate rose from 0.19 to 1.34 HR/9. Clearly the 24-year-old right-hander has some work to do as a former hitter who was converted to the mound after turning pro. With a little polish, though, he could develop into a No. 3 starter.
6. Eric Young Jr., 2B, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2003 30th round – Chandler-Gilbert CC
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Young Jr. has done nothing but hit and run in the minors. Over the past four seasons, he’s produced a batting average of more than .290 while stealing an average of 66 bases a year (87 was his highest total in ‘06, 46 was his lowest in ‘08). He does a nice job of getting on base and has posted a walk rate in double-digits for three of the past four seasons. On the negative side, he still strikes out a bit too much (16.7% in ‘09) for his modest power output (.131 ISO). In the field, Young Jr. is not a great defensively player so he could end up moving permanently to the outfield or he could serve as a super-utility player who would be deserving of 300-400 at-bats. Outside of improving his defense, Young Jr. has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.
7. Michael McKenry, C, Double-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 7th round – Middle Tennessee State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Just 5′10”, McKenry generates surprising pop thanks to his squat build. He also historically hits for a pretty solid average and gets on base. Overall in ‘09, he hit .279/.376/.455 in 358 double-A at-bats. He did see a decline in power last season as his ISO rate dropped from .210 in ‘08 to .176. However, his walk rate remained strong at 12.9% and his strikeout rate dropped 6% to 19.3%. McKenry is a notoriously slow starter and his numbers could improve if he can find a way to get the bat going in April and May. Defensively, he’s a born leader who does a nice job of throwing out base runners (33% in ‘09). He has the potential to be a solid big league regular, and he should have a nice MLB career even if he doesn’t hit as well as he did in the minors.
8. Casey Weathers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: June 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, plus slider
Weathers, a former No. 1 draft pick, was rocketing through the minors and reached double-A in his first full pro season before he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. The right-hander is expected to by ready for the start of the 2010 season. With a big-time fastball and a heavy fastball that produces a good number of ground balls, Weathers projects as a future closer but his control was questionable (5.68 BB/9 in double-A) even before the injury. The 24-year-old should return to double-A in 2010 and he could reach the Majors by the end of the season if his stuff bounces back as expected.
9. Juan Nicasio, RHP, Low-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up
Nicasio is a little rawer than you’d like from a 23-year-old pitching prospect, but you can’t argue with his results so far. The hard-throwing right-hander posted a 2.57 FIP in ‘09 while allowing 110 hits in 112.0 innings of work. He produced a good walk rate against inexperienced hitters (1.85 BB/9) but he still has work to do with his command. Nicasio has done an excellent job avoiding the long-ball throughout his career, which should help him in Colorado. Because of his age, inexperience and lack of a reliable third pitch, a bullpen role is probably in his future.
10. Sam Deduno, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: July 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up
A little old for a prospect, Deduno is on the cusp of being MLB ready. He spent the Majority of the ‘09 season in double-A and allowed just 94 hits in 133.0 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 8.32 K/9. On the downside, his control is questionable, as he posted a walk rate of 4.87 BB/9. That issue, combined with the fact that he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, suggests that Deduno’s future is probably in the bullpen. With a solid fastball and a plus curveball for his out-pitch, as well as a 57% ground-ball rate in ‘09, this right-hander could make a solid set-up man for the Rockies. His first taste of the Majors could come by mid-2010.
Up Next: The Top 30 is done!
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