With how good Nelson Cruz has been for the Rangers over the last few seasons, it can be easy to forget just how tumultuous his road to the majors was. It wasn’t too long ago, however, that Cruz was the definition of the “Quad-A” player, crushing Triple-A pitching but stymied against pitching in the major leagues. That’s why, despite turning 32 in July, Cruz is entering just his second year of arbitration.

That also may be why the Rangers weren’t willing to buy out any of Cruz’s free agent seasons, going beyond his age 34 season. The Rangers did sign Cruz to an extension Thursday, buying out his final two seasons of arbitration for $16 million, Fox Sports’s Ken Rosenthal reports.

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Reds GM Walt Jocketty is sick and tired of your Roy Oswalt rumors:

“It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.” (via John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer)

These rumors Jocketty refers to include this piece by Ken Rosenthal from Monday’s wee hours, which claims the Reds were still in on Oswalt despite the 34-year-old’s inclinations to sign in either St. Louis or Texas. However, there’s more than just Oswalt’s preferences in the way — the Reds would both need to clear a space in the starting rotation and salary from the books in order to make it work.

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Brad Penny’s career in American professional baseball may not be officially over quite yet, but it has been put on hold. The 33-year-old right-hander will instead pitch for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (as passed along by Patrick Newman) during the 2012 campaign, and his contract contains an option for 2013 as well.

Penny’s performance in 2011 — a 5.30 ERA and a 5.02 FIP thanks to a staggeringly low 3.7 strikeout rate — made him look like a 43-year-old rather than a 33-year-old. It isn’t long ago that Penny was starting an All-Star Game — 2006, opposite Kenny Rogers of all matchups — and although maybe his selection as an All-Star starter was an odd one, Penny deserves some recognition for his performance from 2001 through 2007.

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Among Wednesday’s moves, the Seattle Mariners announced the signing of Carlos Guillen to a minor league contract. After a very successful career with the Tigers, Guillen returns to the team he broke into the majors with all the way back in 1998.

Unfortunately, it just doesn’t appear Guillen has anything left in the tank.

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Edwin Jackson is not happy with the way his market is playing out. News came out Tuesday, via Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, that Jackson has multiple three-year offers but would instead prefer a one-year deal. As Dave Cameron noted earlier, this plan could easily backfire. Still, the fact that Jackson — a pitcher with three consecutive 3.5 WAR seasons and a 92 ERA- during that span — feels the need to employ this strategy speaks volumes about his perception in the marketplace.

This is just more instability in a career rife with it. Jackson’s trade history is always the first thing that comes up in any discussion of his talents, and it’s difficult to overstate just how extensive that history is. Steve Slowinski produced the following visualization after the sixth — and last — time Jackson was traded prior to reaching free agency:

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After the magic that was the 2010 postseason, the Giants and their fans can be forgiven for disappointment in Cody Ross‘s 2011 performance. Ross only managed 14 home runs and a .405 slugging percentage in 121 games in San Francisco after slugging .686 with five homers in 14 games during the Giants’ run to the 2010 World Series. Everybody knew the clock would eventually strike midnight, however, and in the end the Ross the Giants ended up with was very similar to the Ross the Marlins had no problem giving away for free on a waiver claim: a very average outfielder.

Unsurprisingly, then, the market around Cody Ross collapsed as better options filled rosters throughout the winter. The 31-year-old finally found a home Monday, as Ross and the Red Sox agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal.

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When Carlos Pena had his breakout season for Tampa Bay in 2007, it wasn’t as a member of the Rays. Pena was instead just another of the hapless Devil Rays, slogging along in soulless Tropicana Field. Friday, Carlos Pena signed a one-year, $7.25 million contract to return to Tampa Bay and Tropicana Field, where the Rays couldn’t possibly be a more different team than when he first arrived.

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One month ago, the Rangers were awarded the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. Surely, the announcements of the details of the contract will not come until right at the 5:00 PM Eastern Time deadline, but all indications as of now point to the Rangers reaching a six-year deal with the Japanese phenom (as reported by CBS’s Jon Heyman).

Although there are occasions where negotiations break down between Japanese imports and their American clubs — Hisashi Iwakuma with Oakland last year, for example — the big names have always agreed to a contract by the one-month deadline. For both the Rangers and for Darvish, there was simply too much at stake not to reach a middle ground.

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The Nationals have not been shy about their dealings with Gio Gonzalez. First, they dealt three of their top 10 prospects — including two of their top three — for the 26-year-old hurler. Then, over the weekend, the Nationals completed the bond, signing the lefty to a contract extension worth $42 million over the next five years. The contract also includes two club options for a combined $23 million.

The deal covers the Nationals’ last four years of control of Gonzalez (including his Super Two season this year) and buys out one year of free agency. Judging by similar deals we’ve seen in recent years, the Nationals don’t just see Gonzalez as a decent number-two starter. They think he’s an ace.

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It seemed like only a matter of time until Seth Smith was shipped out of Colorado. The Rockies have depth in the outfield and the demand for a player of Smith’s caliber was there. A suitor finally stepped forward Monday, as the Oakland Athletics acquired Smith in exchange for starting pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.

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Yoenis Cespedes made his professional debut Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League. The much-hyped Cuban defector promptly went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a hit by pitch. At least there’s nowhere to go but up.

Although Cespedes has yet to establish residency outside of Cuba and is still ineligible to sign as a free agent, the market has largely cleared (outside of Prince Fielder), and thus the Hot Stove’s attention turns his way. Expect the hype to approach and potentially surpass that which surrounded Aroldis Chapman two years ago — Cespedes may not having something as tangible as a 100 MPH fastball, but he does have The Showcase. He also has a tremendous record as one of the Cuban League’s best hitters at just age 26. But it’s difficult enough to project the performance of solid minor leaguers, where data is largely complete and comparables abound. How can we even begin to filter through the noise in Cespedes’s excellent statistical record?

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The 2012 Hall of Fame voting results were really never in question — this was Barry Larkin‘s year. The only question would be how close certain other players could inch towards their own home in Cooperstown. A few took steps forward — Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, and Tim Raines enjoyed substantial gains. Others, like Mark McGwire, took steps back.

Edgar Martinez was a member of the final category — those that moved laterally, showing little to no momentum. Martinez debuted on the ballot in 2010 with 36.2% of the vote, slipped back to 32.9% last year, and just managed to claw his way back to his starting point this year, landing 36.5% of the vote. Although there have been a few players to start in the same vicinity as Martinez and make it to Cooperstown — Rich Gossage and Eddie Mathews, for example, these players have typically gained large amounts of support in their second or third years on the ballot before making it in. Martinez’s stagnation instead is reminiscent of a current Hall of Famer who had to rely upon the Veteran’s Committee for induction: Pee Wee Reese.

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The dream NotGraphs roster has officially been assembled. On top of Logan Morrison and Ozzie Guillen together in the same clubhouse and on the same Twitter, Miami will now house the other noted Chicago fireball, Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs ate $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary for the privilege to ship him down to Florida in exchange for former top prospect and current disappointment Chris Volstad.

With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.

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Tuesday, I began looking into how the differences between WPA and WAR may influence the seemingly odd (at least through the lens of fWAR) pattern of free agent spending on relief pitching. The discovery that one marginal WAR means nearly one marginal WPA for relievers as opposed to just half of one marginal WPA for hitters and starters partially explains why teams pay roughly three-to-four times more per marginal WAR for relievers. However, in order to accept this as a legitimate reason for MLB teams to do so, one has to give full (or nearly full) credit to relievers for the leverage of the situations they pitch in — this is how pitchers like Tyler Clippard (+5.01 WPA) can finish second in the entire league behind just Justin Verlander despite pitching a fraction of the innings.

Relievers cannot directly decide the situations they pitch in — that is up to management — but is there some sort of innate characteristic of relievers which tends to decide when they enter games?

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Over the last decade, much of team behavior has, sooner or later, matched up with new sabermetric discoveries. The Athletics’ “Moneyball” focus on on-base percentage is no longer a secret; teams have begun to quantify the value of defense and spend accordingly; arbitration-eligible players have become more valuable on the trade market. But there is one area in which sabermetric findings quite clearly do not mesh with team behavior, regardless of general managerial regime: spending on relief pitching. At least using Wins Above Replacement, it just doesn’t make much sense. Whereas every non-pitching position on the diamond — as well as starting pitchers — make roughly the same amount per WAR, relief pitchers are on another level, frequently making three to four times more per WAR than other players.

This only doesn’t make sense, however, if we think of teams as buyers of WAR. They aren’t. The teams with the most WAR, although typically in a very, very good spot, will not necessarily win the most games. Teams buy real wins, and the best way we have to measure real wins is with Win Probability Added.

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The seemingly unending slow dance between the Minnesota Twins, the Colorado Rockies and Michael Cuddyer is over. As Matt Klaassen already analyzed, the Twins will probably be better off seeing other people in right field. For Terry Ryan and Minnesota, the attention now shifts back to another old flame: Jason Kubel. Kubel has already earned some interest from the Indians, and if Kubel leaves Minneapolis, the Twins can pick up a third compensatory draft pick to go with the two the Twins pick up with Cuddyer’s departure. But reports say the Twins could be looking to keep Kubel for next season instead.

Between Denard Span, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee, and Trevor Plouffe, the Twins appear to have the outfield, first base, and designated hitter spots covered. If the Twins really love Jason Kubel — and, more importantly, if they really love long-term assets — they should set him free.

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For a time, Jed Lowrie was one of the ultimate Red Sox prospects, potentially the perfect shortstop of the future. On Wednesday, that fine dream ended as the Boston Red Sox dealt Lowrie to the Houston Astros along with Kyle Weiland in exchange for Mark Melancon. There are plenty of factors which went into this trade, as already covered — Lowrie has struggled with injuries and defense, the Red Sox need relief pitching with Jonathan Papelbon gone. But as great as any of the factors appears to be their shortstop of the present, who for the past three seasons has done about as much as anybody can ask from the position.

I am referring, of course, to Marco Scutaro. The incumbent Red Sox shortstop may not be a household name, but Scutaro ranks seventh in wRC+ at 104 and eighth in WAR at 9.8 among shortstops since 2009. The Red Sox expect more of the same in 2012, and that makes Jed Lowrie expendable.

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Last season, it was a common point of view that Yuniesky Betancourt and the Brewers’ massive weakness at shortstop would be the doom for Milwaukee’s bid at competitiveness. As bad as Betancourt was, the real reason the Brewers needed a 22-3 stretch in August to overtake the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Central crown was the struggles of Casey McGehee at third. McGehee put up an atrocious .223/.280/.346 line — a 68 wRC+ — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. come the playoffs.

The Brewers moved earlier to fill their need at shortstop, signing Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal with a vesting option. Today, the Brewers completed the left side of their 2012 infield, adding Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal worth somewhere between $34 million and $37 million — that is, you the readers were pretty dang close.

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First it was Heath Bell, at $27 million. Then it was Jose Reyes, at $111 million. Jeffrey Loria’s team isn’t done spending. Wednesday, the newly-branded Miami Marlins pulled the trigger on a third big-name free agent signing, reeling in Mark Buehrle from the White Sox on a four-year, $58 million contract.

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The magic of the Winter Meetings continued late into the evening on Day Two, with the Mets and Giants agreeing to the first trade of the meetings. The two teams agreed on a swap of center fielders coming off a bad year, with Angel Pagan heading to San Francisco in exchange for Andres Torres as well as reliever Ramon Ramirez.

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