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Bailey’s Big Save

As of this writing, the leader in the clubhouse for today’s FanGraphs Stars of the Game for this afternoon’s Athletics/Red Sox game is closer Andrew Bailey, who recorded a six out save, coming in with runners on first and second, nobody out, in a two run game. Bailey posted a +.418 WPA for his efforts, more than doubling teammate Kurt Suzuki‘s +.190 day despite his two home runs.

OK, so the reason that Bailey is ahead of Suzuki is likely because I’m the only one that had voted at the time, but Bailey’s performance is still noteworthy. The A’s were already deep into their bullpen, having already used Vin Mazzaro, Brad Ziegler, and Jerry Blevins due to the injury shortened start by Brett Anderson. With Blevins in trouble, and already having allowed a home run to Marco Scutaro, Oakland manager Bob Geren sprang into action, going to his closer with six long outs left to get.

The situation, runners on first and second, nobody out, and a two run lead, has a 4.16 leverage index. This is exactly the time that the manager should be calling on his closer. The Red Sox win probability was approaching 40%. The meat of the Red Sox lineup, in the form of Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, and David Ortiz, was coming up, in effect making the leverage higher than the 4.16 reported. If there is any time for the best pitcher to enter the game, it is that situation.

Bailey induced flyouts from Youkilis and Beltre and struck Ortiz out swinging. That inning alone reduced the Red Sox win probability from 39.3% to 8.8%. Bailey would then go out for the ninth to complete the save. He got into a little trouble, thanks to a solo home run from Bill Hall, but he managed to record the final six outs, adding another +.133 WPA. Overall, Bailey would end with a +.418 WPA, a game high.

The decision by Bob Geren to bring his best reliever into the game at the most important time in the game should be one that is seen more often. The closer, or relief ace, or whatever it is called, is useless if he remains in the bullpen as a lesser pitcher blows the lead. Today, Geren decided to use Andrew Bailey when it mattered, and he was rewarded with a victory.




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Jack Moore is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, with degrees in Mathematics and Economics. He also blogs the Brewers at Disciples of Uecker, the Wisconsin Badgers at Badger of Honor and fantasy baseball at Roto Hardball. Follow him on twitter at @jh_moore.

6 Responses to “Bailey’s Big Save”

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  1. Sammy says:

    Still leaves me with haunting memories of Flash Gordon & Jeff Weaver pitching in front of Mo in the 8th.

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  2. OzzieGuillen says:

    I agree with your sentiment about closer usage, but I still think Suzuki was the real star of the game…especially since Bailey did concede a run.

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  3. marc says:

    I watched the 8th and 9th. Bailey stepped his game up in the 8th in that high leverage situation touching 98mph several times. I hadn’t seen him crack 96mph before that this year. He was dominating.

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  4. Steve says:

    Do the Red Sox ever play on the road?

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  5. Rich says:

    “The decision by Bob Geren to bring his best reliever into the game at the most important time in the game should be one that is seen more often. ”

    I’m not sure thats what actually happened though. I’d be more convinced if it was the 7th inning, and not the 8th.

    This was most likely just an “8th inning, reliever in trouble, save situation” sort of thing.

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  6. IvanGrushenko says:

    Last year, the 8th inning was Wuertz’s. Since’s not been good this year, Bailey had to step in when Blevins failed.

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