Bautista Hits #50
With a solo home run against Felix Hernandez in the first inning of today’s game against the Mariners, Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays hit his 50th home run of the season, becoming the first player this season and the first since Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez in 2007. Bautista is now the 26th player to accomplish this feat in Major League history.
Let’s go deeper into Bautista’s home runs with the help of the fantastic Hit Tracker Online. With a rough estimate of 395 feet on Bautista’s home run today, his 50 home runs traveled a whopping 20,167 feet. That’s 3.82 miles, or roughly the distance of one Adam Dunn home run.
Even though the Rogers Centre has probably helped Bautista – it has a 114 park factor for right handed home runs, according to StatCorner, there’s little doubt that Bautista has hit the tar out of the ball this season. His average home run distance of 403.5 feet and average speed off the bat of 106.8 miles per hour are both well above the MLB averages of 396.7 and 103.3 respectively. Yes, Bautista has hit 11 “Just Enough” home runs – those that cleared the fence by 10 vertical feet or fewer or landed only one fence length beyond the fence – but that’s simply a function of the pure volume of home runs he has hit this season. His 18 “No Doubt” homers – those that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence – are by far the most in the league, with Adam Dunn coming in second with 14.
Finally, let’s take a look at where Bautista has hit these home runs.
[Click to embiggen]
I think it’s safe to call Bautista the King of Left Field this season. His Majesty’s domain has seen 45 of his 50 homers, with left field defined as those home runs between 135 and 105 degrees on the above chart. The other 5 landed in the left half of center field.
Jose Bautista will, barring a minor miracle, lead the Major Leagues in home runs this season after toiling away in relative obscurity for the first six years of his career. Although his 20.9% HR/FB rate is a bit of an anomaly compared to his career numbers, it’s not that out there for someone with solid power in a hitter’s park. Nobody should be projecting Bautista for 50 home runs again next season, but there are certainly reasons to believe that he should continue to be a threat at the plate for the Blue Jays. Congratulations to Bautista on his majestic achievement.
1
Embiggen
haha yes
awesome
it’s a perfectly cromulent word
Bad Astronomy much? ;)
Embiggen? That’s unpossible!
he hasnt hit a single HR left of dead center?
how is this even possible when you hit that many?
i would be interested to see if hes pulling all pitch locations for home runs, or if pitchers just continue to make mistakes on the inner half of the plate against him
I don’t believe he’s hit an opposite field HR in his career
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=bautijo02&year=Career&t=b#hitlo
That’s after 109 HR.
A bunch of home runs hit to left field from a Toronto Blue Jay who previously never hit even half that many? Hmmmm..this sounds awfully familiar..
http://hittrackeronline.com/parks/Hill_Aaron_2009_scatter.jpg
Anyway, nice to see a guy like Jose get the press.
Both are happening, cs3.
Bautista has developed a good eye at the plate, is athletic and very strong, and has quick hands. He’s laying off junk away, taking borderline pitches, and *crushing* anything in his wheelhouse – mainly fastballs down the middle, up, in, and down and in. And the occasional hanging breaking ball. He’s had a dream season and hasn’t missed a whole lot of pitches. Next year I expect him to hit about 25-35 HR as pitchers pound the outer half and deploy a lot more secondary stuff against him.
Actually, Bautista’s eye at the plate is not necessary good or better; he is actually swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone this year than ever before (and is actually being thrown more pitches outside the strike zone). He is also being thrown more off-speed pitches than ever, so the primary versus secondary stuff argument doesn’t work either.
I know there is a huge elephant in this room that no one wants to discuss, but it must be discussed based on the numbers: performance enhancers. The metrics speak for themselves regarding the performance: he is being thrown more off-speed pitches outside the zone with which he is making increased contact; his BABIP is .239; his LD% is down to 14.9%; his flyball rate is up 12.5% from last year; his HR/FB rate is up 9% from last year.
Certainly, Bautista has changed his approach…his swinging strikes are down, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. But why has he changed his approach? Why the drastic change in flyballs? Why the drastic change in HR/FB, particularly when more contact is being made with slop out of the strike zone?
Metrics do not prove that someone took performance enhancers. They do, however, open up the conversation, and to avoid the topic (or, in Tim Kurkjian’s opinion, giving the “benefit of the doubt”) is irresponsible. The last time we gave the benefit of the doubt, it was Brady Anderson…perhaps the bacon fat diet will make a re-emergence?
If you actually watch Bautista’s plate appearances, you can get a good idea of his approach (you don’t need to go combing through pages and pages of stats, only to conclude that he must be on PEDs). He’s swinging aggressively and hard, but he also has an intelligent and disciplined approach. He isn’t chasing a lot of garbage out of the zone. He’s going after pitches he can hit – and hit hard. Some of them are borderline strikes, or even balls. He has a lightning-quick bat, which allows him both to turn around a good fastball, and to wait and pass on pitches that aren’t worth going after. Note also that unlike McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, and the rest of the amped-up players from the 90s, Bautista isn’t appreciably bigger than he was a year or two ago.
Here’s one to right-centre from the winter leagues 2 years ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVcNp8hVczk
http://www.thetripleoption.com/2010/09/23/vows/
I’ve watched most of Batista’s games this year and it’s very simple to see what he is doing at the plate. He is taking the approach that he is going to lay off outside pitches and swing for the fences on pitches down the middle or inside.
You can see on pitches inside or down the middle that he hits for singles or doubles he is swinging for the fences. I have no problem with this since he has developed a great eye at the plate and most of his swings are for pitches in the strike zone.
I wonder what his swing percentage is for pitches out of the strike zone.
“I wonder what his swing percentage is for pitches out of the strike zone.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1887&position=3B/OF#platediscipline
There’s one HR at about 108 degrees and just inside 350 feet. What park is that? Is that a mistake? perhaps an inside-the-parker?
Toronto.
no mistake.
inside the park hr to left center (twinkie outfielders knocked each down).
as I remember it, short, yes, but a line drive that he absolutely crushed in his usual fashion, just didn’t have any elevation
Thanks!
Compared Bautista’s 2010 to Delgado’s 2000. Check it out at my blog if interested. Interesting comp.
I have always been making art from an early age but for nearly forty years did computer programming to earn a living. I bought a house and put my wife and three children through college. Now that diversion is over so I can finally paint full time.