Comments on: Bay Vs Cameron

By: CircleChange11

CircleChange11 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:22:02 +0000

I remember Whitey Herzog defending Ozzie’s million dollar contract by saying something like “A guy that prevents 100 runs is as valuable as a guy that knocks in 100 runs.”

That understanding, IMO, is why the 82 Cardinals could win the WS with no one on their team having more than 19 HRs (George Hendrick). You can put George in RF when you McSpeedster covering CF.

Looking at the defensive ratings of Hernandez (1B), Herr (2B), Ozzie (SS), and Oberkfell (3B), it’s amazing.

Their SP’s — Andujar, Forsch, Stuper, and Mura weren’t THAT great.

The emphasis on D was one of the reasons why Hernandez, with only 7 HRs, was likely as valuable to his particular team as ANY 1B was to their own respective squad.

As I said in another thread, I always thought Figgins was a great fit for the Cardinals … a fast Terry Pendleton, so to speak.

By: james wilson

james wilson — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:01:46 +0000

Fans will never understand what a great defense does for a pitching staff, other than creating highlight videos. It’s the difference between going into the eigth or into the sixth or seventh. Good defenders are burglars.
The better and deeper your pitching staff, the greater that difference becomes, and the rest of the game becomes more important–moving runners, scoring from third, on base percentace, yada yada. Everything a position player does becomes more important, and a team has greater focus.

By: jp

jp — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:59:58 +0000

speaking of which…

By: gnomez

gnomez — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:49:56 +0000

To PhD Brianhttp: Ozzie. Smith.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:12:40 +0000

I would say I’ve always been in favor of error bars for win value statistics, but that’s what PECOTA’s for.

By: illlogic

illlogic — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:44:42 +0000

Been clamoring for Cameron to the Yankees for the past few years and will continue this winter.

By: Jack's Son

Jack's Son — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:13:31 +0000

GMs overvalue offense just as much as WAR overvalues defense. Offensive numbers are verifiably quantitative while defensive metrics are subjectively quantitative. The defensive numbers have great value, but to weight them equally with such a large margin for error isn’t ideal

By: wobatus

wobatus — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:12:57 +0000

Argonbunnies, as a Mets fan, I coulda sworn his godlike fielding days were over by the time he played with the Mets. UZR’s from that tenure seem to back that up, but then he got good again it appears. Maybe he has gotten better jumps recently if he has lost any speed and that has made up for it.

And don’t get me wrong. I liked cameron when he was with the mets. Lotta Ks and all, but he seemed like a decent guy, decent player. But his fielding didn’t seem as good as advertised. Not sure if any other Mets fans agree with that assessment.

By: Argonbunnies

Argonbunnies — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:20:34 +0000

About athletic CFs aging well:

Could someone point me to an article that supports this?

This runs very much counter to my observation that players who derive a lot of value from their speed (i.e., great outfield defenders and basestealers) tend to fall off a cliff earlier than anyone. Running speed seems to peak at the onset of physical maturity and decline thereafter. Kenny Lofton didn’t seem to be nearly the CF at age 28 that he was at age 24.

Frankly, I am surprised that Cameron is still covering as much ground as he is.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:40:58 +0000

Going back to the age argument, I can see why Bay may get a longer term contract. But for next year at least likely cameron is as valuable if not more valuable a player. Giles did fall off a cliff this year. i thought that was much more foreseeable. In fact, i think fangraphs was a little guilty of prasisng (I forget which writer wrote about it) the decision to keep him. If you looked his carrer had shown a steady erosion of certain skills, last year’s bump up masking the overall decline. Cameron doesn’t seem to be quite in the same boat.

So i will have to agree with Dave’s assessment here. Correct. my instant reflex is to say Bay is better. However, that instinct has been whittled here to the point where I pretty quickly, with no need to read the piece, realized how it would play out.

Turns out ya read this site enough and it is pretty convincing on certain points, even to curmudgeons.