Nevertheless, the odds may be better than I realize.

Football seems to be a game that emotion and momentum plays a larger roll in than baseball. Perhaps I am wrong, but I gotta imagine that felt like a pretty big slap in the face to the defense to go for it, and, having missed the 1st down, essentially they are out there on their 28 knowing their coach didn’t trust them to stop them over 70.

Now, of course, you can tell them it isn’t that I didn’t trust you guys, but the odds are better if I go for it. And they are pros. But it is demoralizing, I’d imagine.

The likelihood of the Patriots failing to convert on 4th Down was probably higher than the Colts driving 70 yards. But again, I think going for it was the right move because all things considered that’s what gave the Pats the best chance to win, even though it may have been more risky in that there was a 40 percent chance they don’t convert.

- wasting a timeout before running the 1st down play, when they were already coming off a commercial break after the kickoff
- wasting the 1st down play by running his RB right into a wall of defenders when the Colts were dead expecting it
- passing on third down (unsuccessfully)
- wasting another time out, the Pats last one.

Pats fans were already shouting at their TV’s before Belichick made the call, …
- passing so short as to bring the chains into play, when the same rate of catching success could almost certainly have been obtained 5 yards down the field (proof? how about the rest of the game up to that point?), ensuring that catch = first down.

Sure, once he had butchered his way into that position, going for it was the right call…

While it may seem that way, looking at all the drives the Colts have scored, this year, they already have 10 very similar touchdowns around 70 yds and 2minutes. It gets even worse in that game itself. Here’s the yardage and time of possession for each TD for the Colts:

90yd 3:28
80yd 3:02
79yd 2:04
79yd 1:49

The last two drives were two of the previous three drives the Pats D faced. The other was a miscommunication between Wayne and Manning and resulted in an INT. But as others have mentioned, no one brings up these thoughts (that the Colts had driven, multiple times in a short period of time) against this D when choosing to judge Belicheck.

Yeah, you judge it based on the probability and end result of all possible outcomes. It’s basic probability math – you learn this stuff in high school or middle or whatever. If you pay $1 to roll a die, and if it lands on a 6 you get $5, but nothing if it lands on 1-5, you lose ~16 cents, on average, each time you play this game. 5/6 * 0 + 1/6 *5 = expected value of 83.333333 cents, yet you’re paying $1, so you’re losing money. This isn’t difficult math, nor is it a difficult concept. If you play this game once and roll a 6, sure you walk away with $4, but that doesn’t make it a good decision.