Beltre to Boston
When asked about his plan to improve the Red Sox earlier this winter, GM Theo Epstein emphasized a need to upgrade the defense, noting that his club was not very good in the field a year ago. He wasn’t kidding around, as yesterday, Boston signed Adrian Beltre to take over at third base, adding another premium defender to the earlier acquisition of Mike Cameron.
Beltre isn’t just a good defender. He is in the conversation of the best defensive third baseman of all time. Since 2002, the first year we have UZR data available here on the site, Beltre has put up a total of +104.5. That’s an average of +14 per 150 games over an eight year span. Forget complaints about small sample size or year to year variations – +14 UZR/150 over eight years is impossible to fluke.
It isn’t just the numbers, either. When you watch Beltre play third base, you are amazed at the things he can do. He has perfected the charge on a bunt – no one in baseball comes in on the ball as well as he does. His lateral range is hilarious at times, as he regularly fields balls that are hit directly at the shortstop, just because he can. He has a great arm, often throwing lasers across the field without transferring his weight, showing pure arm strength.
But don’t take my word for it – take the word of the fans who filled out Tom Tango’s scouting report project. Beltre grades out as the best third baseman in the game, rating a 4.56 out of a possible 5, and only five players in the game were graded out higher than Beltre. Or, you could take the word of Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon:
“[Beltre is] clearly the best [third baseman] I’ve ever seen in person,” said Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon. “I think [Evan Longoria] is good, I used to think Scott Brosius was really good. … [Eric] Chavez was good, but Beltre was stupid good. I think Beltre is the best who I’ve ever seen with my two eyes – defender, not just third baseman, but defense.”
Maddon isn’t the only one who feels that way. It is impossible to watch Beltre play third base and not be impressed. There isn’t a question over whether he’s a great defensive third baseman. The only argument you can have is where his glove ranks with the all-time greats.
The Red Sox just signed a great defensive player, but the value for them doesn’t end there. Offensively, Fenway Park should be a huge boon to his numbers, as Dave Allen showed how well Beltre’s game is suited towards a park that is friendly to right-handed pull hitters. He’s leaving the hardest park in baseball for a right-handed hitter and going to one that famously improves the performances of players with his offensive approach. Beltre has been a league average hitter while toiling in Safeco Field, and he has the chance to be much more than that in Boston.
This is simply a tremendous addition for the Red Sox. They got a +3 win player with upside, at age 30, on a one year deal for $10 million. They significantly upgraded over Mike Lowell, and put their defense back on track to being an asset, not a liability. Theo Epstein saw an opportunity to add undervalued assets and made huge improvements to the team by bringing in both Cameron and Beltre.
Boston fans, get ready to be spoiled. You’ll never see another third baseman play the hot corner as well as you’ll see it played in 2010.
36
Drooling right now. This is just a smart contract put together by a bunch of smart people. Between Lackey’s weighted deal – including injury clause, and this Beltre deal, the Sox are thinking outside the box this offseason. I like it.
What’s the injury clause in Lackey’s contract?
“The Red Sox built in a “conditional club option” at the minimum salary for the 2015 season into John Lackey’s contract to protect them in case Lackey gets hurt, according to salary information obtained by Boston.com.”
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/12/an_option_year.html
If he gets a severe-enough injury to warrant the clause, I wouldn’t want him at ANY salary at that age.
On second thought, I don’t want him at any cost in 2014 either.
Pretty nice pick up for the Red Sox, in the eyes of this Yankees fan.
For some reason I read the ESPN comment boards yesterday after the deal was announced and saw some choice comments.
I have decided that the extent of the fervor with which one uses the phrase, “Red Sox Nation” is inversely related to actual baseball knowledge.
My favorite comment I read was, “I would have been fine with this deal if it wasnt for 10 friggin million dollars!!! We couldn’t use any of that to make Bay happy?!?!?!?!?! This organization has to get off their high horse and start using their money more wisely…”
An article I wrote on the bleacher report contained a poll of the Red Sox performance in 2010.
Well over half the voters project the Sox as less than 95 wins.
Trust me, I hate most Red Sox fans. This is odd, since I, myself, am a huge Red Sox fan.
Being a Sox fan is still an exercise in self-loathing? I thought they ditched that five years ago…
Not so much that as an exercise in tolerance of stupidity.
If it were up to 95% of the Red Sox fanbase, we’d just give Jason Bay $100 million dollars and try to outspend NY. Which would obviously end in failure.
This
I hate Theo Epstein, sometimes.
The Beltre love at fangraph’s is getting a little extreme. All of sudden, we are expected to believe that Fenway is going to transform Beltre’s league average bat into a well above average hitter? Granted, he is a fantastic defensive player, but it is also true that he has had two shoulder surgeries over the past two seasons to go along with a thumb surgery, the latter from which he may not have fully recovered (which make his offense projections that much more difficult). After all, it’s not like you can just ignore a poor offensive seaosn like Beltre had in 2009, especially when you consider the injuries and the possibility that he may be older than 31.
Furthermore, at some point, you would expect the Red Sox improvement on defense to yield declining marginal return. It’s all well and good to load up on defense, but the offense will take a hit (Bay + Lowell > Beltre + Cameron) even if everyone stays healthy. When you consider the precariousness of Drew’s and Beltre’s health along with Big Papi’s slide, that lineup could struggle to score runs.
They got a +3 win player with upside, at age 30, on a one year deal for $10 million.
Dave just called him a +3 win player. +10 glove, +2 position, -2 bat. That’s a pretty safe assumption for Beltre given his wRC+ of 107 in his career.
This deal is great for the Sox. And I’m a Yankees fan.
The lineup is more consistent 1-9, the defense arguably the best in baseball, and the pitching is solid.
Do they have the old Papi/Manny duo? No.
But they do have two way players that add value at every position (except V-Mart defense). Ellsbury in LF has yet to be seen, but even if he is a below average fielder, the monster+Cameron in CF will mask it enough.
Smart offseason for the Back Bay boys.
Is their lineup as good as the Yanks? No. But their defense is better and their pitching is pretty even. Should be an awesome race.
How is the lineup more consistent? Having mashers like Manny and Ortiz who are prolific producers leads to consistency. A lineup that will rely on Belte, Scutaro, Drew and Cameron strikes me as one that will be prone to peaks and valleys.
As for the Sox defense overall, they should be much better (they were awful in 2008, so they’d have to try to be worse), but I think there are a lot of questions about Scutaro’s and Beltre’s ability to play an entire season. Also, has it been decided that Ellsbury will play LF? If not, playing Cameron in LF would mitigate against his defensive value.
Finally, the Yankees have also improved on defense this offseason, so I don’t that gap is as wide as you might think, especially when you consider Boston’s staff is mostly right handed with a high K rate, which should lessen some of the value on an improved left side of the field.
“The lineup is more consistent 1-9″
I couldn’t agree more.
IMHO, 2010 red sox lineup is expected to be anti-2006 lineup;
165-161-106-104-96-83-80-77-75 (OPS+ highest to lowest)
that was one ugly line-up.
Will, I think you misunderstand what consistency is.
When your team is relying almost entirely on your three and four hitters, any time they go into a slump, your offense is dead. This is an example of what was often going on with the Manny/Ortiz tandem. Sure, they were prolific mashers, but 2006 was a good example of how when one or both of them was hurt or not producing, the results for the lineup at large are a disaster.
Meanwhile, having a more steady 1-9 with less overall oomph, but also a lack of any severe black holes gives you a more consistent, keep the line moving type of offense that won’t crush the ball or anything, but will produce the same final result: runs.
Having both is great, see 2007 Sox where Ortiz and Manny both had great seasons and most of the team was producing at better than league average, but that’s generally more uncommon than not.
“The Beltre love at fangraph’s is getting a little extreme. All of sudden, we are expected to believe that Fenway is going to transform Beltre’s league average bat into a well above average hitter?”
It is an interesting dynamtic. Even the optimistic Bill James projection of Beltre’s 2010 wOBA comes in 15 points lower than the 120+ fans projection.
We know exactly how old Beltre is. His original contract was voided when it was learned that he was too young (16) when he first signed and he was declared a free agent. This is the one rare case that we can be abundantly confident in the age of Dominican who signed the early 90s.
Never heard such a thing, Paul F. If true, now I’m kinda pissed he’s only signed for 1.
It is true.
“When it was revealed that Beltre had signed his initial contract at the age of 15, commissioner Bud Selig suspended the Dodgers’ scouting operations in the Dominican Republic for a year, due to the fact that signing a player at that age was prevented under MLB rules”
Hard to believe that LAD accepted a one year suspension based on false information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrian_Beltre
“All of sudden, we are expected to believe that Fenway is going to transform Beltre’s league average bat into a well above average hitter?”
It’s pretty easy to believe if you just look at Beltre’s splits. Over the last three years on the road (away from Safeco) he has been well above average as a hitter (ranging from league average to 30% better than league average in OPS+ over those three years).
He doesn’t even have to get any special bonus from Fenway to be an above average hitter, he already is one and has been for a long time. It’s just that Safeco pulled down his overall numbers.
“All of sudden, we are expected to believe that Fenway is going to transform Beltre’s league average bat into a well above average hitter?”
Totally agree. Beltre’s problem wasn’t that he played in Safeco Field (a point illustrated by the fact that, if you point out Beltre’s disasterous 2009 to most Red Sox fans, they will immediately tell you he put up decent enough numbers in Seattle from 2006-2008).
Beltre’s problem is that he can’t stop swinging at sliders off the plate. Look at the Plate Discipline numbers on this very website. Over the last eight years, the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which Beltre has swung have been: 25%, 29%, 21%, 26%, 33%, 37%, 34%, 37%. His contact rate on those pitches has actually improved over that time, but all this means is that Beltre is increasingly swinging at bad pitches, and making contact on worse offerings, which probably leads to reduced power and reduced production.
At 31years of age, Beltre’s eyes and hands are not getting any quicker; there’s no reason to believe Beltre will suddenly reverse his trend of swinging at increasing numbers of bad pitches. Fenway might help him when he makes solid contact with a good pitch; but, it won’t help him become a more selective hitter, which is what he really needs to do in order to get better at the plate.
You know who absolutely swings at every slider off the plate? Jason Bay.
Yes, I am a Red Sox fan, and yes, I am going to point out the fact that he put up decent numbers from 2006-2008 (wOBA’s of .338, .346, and .336//.335 career) with o-swing percentages of 33, 37, and 34. Now I am going to point out the fact that Beltre played through injury in 2009. Injury is clearly the outlier here, not his “trend” in o-swing percentage.
Ok, so lets say he stays a league average bat. Lets say he is slightly below average with the bat. He’s also a +10 fielder. As Dave said, he’s a 3 win player. I don’t see how that is unrealistic even if we grant that his offense will not improve.
Will, I am an M’s fan and I have loved Beltre’s D for these past years and I have also been very frustrated by his lack of offense. I guess I was expecting him to start, to play with M’s like he finished with Dodgers. I don’t know about his offensive Saber-numbers I just know that he seemed to swing at many pitches out of the strike zone and was often fooled on pitches. Again, I am not Saber knowledgeable that is just my experience.
I prefer what Figgins is going to bring, good D (though not as good as Beltre) but higher OBP.
Expecting Beltre to hit like he did in 2004 was wildly unrealistic (I was guilty of the same thing back when he was signed). It’s sad that his regression soured him in the eyes of so many fans, but it had to happen. He hit way over his head in 2004. And while OBP isn’t his strength, he has enough pop to bring him back up to about an average hitter.
Figgins is a fine replacement, though.
God I miss him already.
You gotta appreciate the the Sox improved to possibly win 100 games without dipping into their farm system at all.
As far as draft picks go… They are picking up a couple picks with the signings Wagner and Bay? And giving a couple up to sign Scutaro and Lackey? Is this correct?
They get a 1st rounder + sandwich for Wagner, a 2nd rounder + sandwich for Bay, and forfeit their own 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks. overall, they were able to make moves without sacrificing their draft.
Thank you Steve
They have not given up their 3rd round pick, as Beltre was a Type B.
They have moved up from 29 to 20 in the first round, moved up from 28 to 7 in the second round, and added two sandwich picks which look to be 36 and 38 (or 35 and 37 if Valverde does a sign-and-trade with Houston).
Thanks Eric, I stand corrected. I could have sworn that Beltre was an A, but I was obviously wrong.
I think Sox improve a bit, but 100 wins!!
not going to happen.
The Sox won 95 games last season. Improving a bit is, by definition, potentially 100 wins.
This begs the question: If Beltre’s awesome in 2010, do the Red Sox try to lock him up long term?
I think you meant “This raises the question:” Which is entirely different from begs the question. Not trying to be a dick but you might enjoy looking it up and finding out what “begs the question” actually means.
thanks wikipedia
me thinks trying to be a dick
I’m not trying to be a clown, but excuse me while I put on this face paint and oversized nose that honks when you squeeze it.
I should not have said anything in response to your comment, Joe R. My apologies.
You can put lipstick on a pig, but….
It’s no big, I’d probably say it, too, if I were you.
Nope. One year rental only.
Just to illustrate my point, fangraphs data has Beltre’s average value since leaving LA at around $13mn. Considering the current economy and Beltre’s more recent injury history, I fail to see how $10mn guaranteed is such a great deal, especially when you consider the Red Sox have also given Beltre a $5mn insurance policy against either very poor performance or further injury (that has to count for something too).
So what if he’s terrible? The Sox can afford a mistake at that price. 10 mill for a 13mill player. And if he repeats his 8mill performance? Than we keep him next year at half as much. How can that possibly be a bad deal for the Sox?
My understand is Beltre has the option to return at $5mn, which he obviously would only do if he has a bad year. Therefore, that option amounts to a free insurance policy, which has to be considered alongside the $10mn guaranteed dollars. Also, if the prospects for Beltre are as rosy as some have suggested, only locking him up for one year is actually a negative. If Beltre is really a sleeping giant about to awaken in Fenway, Theo would have been wise to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal instead of giving him the option to become a free agent when he realizes this latent potential.
I am not suggesting that the move is terrible. It is a solid addition for a team that needs (or thinks it needs) a third baseman. My comments are a rebuttal to the idea that this signing represents a stroke a genius. Beltre at $10mn with the player option for 2011 seems about right in this market.
well, if he’s terrible, it’s possible that he hurts their chances to make the playoffs. so, that’s not exactly a “so what”.
the financial risk is not great, but financial risks are not the only ones to consider.
everyone kept saying this last year with Smoltz and Penny, but those guys were coughing up REAL baseball games. just because they were doing it inexpensively didn’t change the standings.
i’m not saying this isn’t a good signing, it is. but sometimes we need to remember that playoff spots aren’t awarded based on wins/$$.
If he repeats his $8 million perforance, he’ll walk and take abother $9 million from another team. The Red Sox were willing to pay him $9 million for one year after last year’s crap-ass performance; why wouldn’t he be able to get more than $5 million next season if he put up a similar crap-ass performance.
Beltre’s only going to exercise that option (assuming it’s worth $5 million, and not $10 million, which is what it’d be worth if he records 640 PA’s this season) if he gets hurt in Spring Training, and spend s the whole year in surgery and rehab. Otherwise, he’ll get more next season, just like he did this season (even if he only hits 8 HR and swings at sliders off the plate all year), because some GM will believe that Beltre can win two games on defense alone.
JT: The Red Sox are giving him $9 mil expecting a rebound. If he puts up another bad offensive season, then teams will not expect a rebound, and he will not be able to get another $9 million.
There’s a $1 million buyout on the option.
And the $5 mil player option is in case Beltre sucks ass in 2010, and then we have him for cheap in 2011.
What? The $5 million player option protects Beltre. Not the Red Sox. The player option can only be exercised by Beltre. According to what I’ve read, the player option actually contains an escalator clause: the minimum amount of the option is $5 million; however, if Beltre reaches certain plate-appearance thresholds, then the option could be worth as much as $10 million (at 640 PAs).
So, the way the contract works is: Beltre gets paid $9 million for 2010. After this season, Beltre can exercise his player option for whatever amount it’s worth based on his 2010 PA’s (could be $5 million; could be $10 million; could be somewhere in between). If the Red Sox don’t want Beltre’s production at the option amount, they have to pay Beltre $1 million to go away. The minimum Beltre gets is $10 million for one year. If Beltre gets 640 PA’s this season, he can come back next year for $10 million (making it a two-year, $19 million contract), or the Red Sox can buyout his option if they don’t think he’ll be worth $10 million next season.
The option is basically an insurance package for Beltre (in case he believes he can’t get more than whatever the option’s worth on the free-agent market). The buyout is insurance for Boston (in case Boston doesn’t believe Beltre’s worth whatever the option’s worth).
If the reports are correct, the player option can reach up to $10 million if Beltre reaches 640 PA a number he has only reached 3 times in his career (2004-2006). It seems like a stretch to assume that he’ll be able to reach those totals with the CI flexibility the Red Sox will have.
Youkilis has to be in the middle of the lineup every day when healthy and Kotchman will almost certainly log some starts over the course of the season. If Beltre’s the odd man out, there’s little chance he hits those incentives.
Fangraph’s value estimate is just that an estimate. It doesn’t differentiate between short term and long term commitments, just output. Short term contracts cost more per year than longer term ones do, because the players have more security and less risk on long term deals. The big win for the Sox is that they signed Beltre for only 2/$15M (though incentives could push it to 2/$20M). That’s way under market for a short term deal. And if the Sox can offer arbitration if Beltre opts out, then they’ll capture some of his upside by getting a draft pick back.
I understand that it’s an estimate, but it is still illustrative (even though I am sold on UZR, not to mention equating it with more tested offensive metrics).
Also, this is only a 2/$15M deal if things go poorly for Beltre. If things go well, it becomes 1/$10mn. So, in essence, the player option is like a free insurance policy with the premiums paid for by the Red Sox.
Just a note, they got him for 2/$14M. According to ESPN they got him for 1 year at $9M, with a buy out for $1M so a guaranteed $10M. If the option is picked up his 2 year salary would be $9+5=$14M. This helps, not hurts your argument.
Except the option is Beltre’s. He will not excercise it unless something bad happens, in which case, the Red Sox will wish that he hadn’t. In a worst case scenario (Beltre is seriously injured or really bad), Boston would be paying $14mn for no or negative production. That is a considerable risk for a player coming off three surgeries (two shoulder and one thumb) in about 15 months.
Also, it’s not just a $5 million option; it contains an escaltor clause. If Beltre plays a lot this year, the option is worth more.
Averaging how much a player is worth over time makes no sense, you should be using the average WAR. The value of a win now is still greater than it was 5 years ago.
Ah, but what would his average value have been in an average ballpark?
My 2010 WAR Worksheet, now has the Red Sox at 99.1 wins, only two shy of the Yankees.
vr, Xei
Will you be doing that for the AL Central and AL West, as well?
Yes, I already have them done too. I am posting a new one every couple of days. I will put another one up later tonight.
vr, Xei
I’d consider a 30% premium on any FA contract huge value, particularly, when the it’s a one year deal. The ‘risk’ of the high average value contracts FA sign is often in the length of the deal. The albatross contracts are the long term ones (Soriano, Zito, Matthews jr). A one year deal that is likely to return a 30% premium even if the player sees no increase in his effectiveness going from a poor RHB hitting park to good one seems the definition of a good value.
It’s a 30% premium before accounting for the $5mn player option and Beltre’s more recent injury history (two shoulder surgeries and one thumb surgery since the end of the 2008 season). I think those two factors lessen the premium and put this Beltre contract right around a fair deal. If you wanted to get technical, you could also lump in the lost leverage in trading Lowell (valued at say around the $3mn Texas was going to send back to Boston).
I’m still not sure how I see how the 5million option plays into it. Short of a catastrophic knee injury where he misses all next year, 5 millon is a pittance. I mean I-rod got 3 mill this offseason (for 2 years?!) I beleive. If he blows out a knee, its bad luck and they were never going to get value on the contract. If he comes back at 5 mill in order to try and re-coup some value for himself, his history says he should easily be worth 5 million as long as he is on the field. Given that the best they could do previously was pay 9 mill of the 12 Lowell is owed I can’t believe they will have a whole lot less leverage than they did. In fact I think they are as likely to release him as trade him. They need the roster spot, with 12 man pitching staffs, Tek, Kotchman and Hermidia already in line for bench duty and no backup mid inf among them, there’s no place to keep Lowell. Best to hope for is to ‘pay’ for a prospect like the deal they had annullled with Texas.
What in the world is the Beltre big-head guy at Safeco going to do now? Won’t someone think of the obsessive fans?
That’s Red, and, trust me, he’s heartbroken. I just hope he doesn’t go and buy a Red Sox jersey.
One year rental, Red. Just cherish the memories.
Poor Red….I’m definitely using my extra ticket on him for each game the Sox come to Seattle.
The one year contract could be Boston’s insurance policy to have an open spot for Youk to move to next year after they target a 1B. Whether that occurs this season or in an offseason trade or FA aquisition. 1B seems to me to be their true plan forward.
This seems right to me. As I said in the previous Beltre thread, the Sox should be able to move Youkilis to 3rd and find a 1b more easily than they can find a 3b. If you have a guy with 1b power who can play 3rd, you move him to third. Of course, I didn’t realize they could get Beltre’s glove for 1 year, which means they can keep Youk at 1st in 2010 and still have time (I’m thinking age, not necessarily contract) to move him to 3rd for a few years starting in 2011. Counting on Youk at 3rd as he gets older, however, seems overly optimistic, so we’ll see if that’s what they have in mind down the road.
This might not be the proper thread, but has anyone charted the effect of age on defense, and at what point might a defensive collapse be the most likely? Will a player’s defense fall off a cliff similar to the way some players collapse offensively, or does it tend to decline slowly over time?
The length of this contract seems to preclude any chances of collapse (barring injury) but such a possibility concerns me with Cameron.
The short duration is really the key here as it buys the club some flexibility before they lock into 2011-12 fix at first/third. First, they get a chance to see if Anderson can put it back together and get himself into a spot where he matters in 2011. And two, it knocks a year of optionality off the Gonzalez Call if they want to do something there. This is a big improvement off the 2009 baseline. Maybe 25 runs on the glove side and who knows, maybe an uptick on offense as well.
“His lateral range is hilarious at times, as he regularly fields balls that are hit directly at the shortstop, just because he can.”
So you’re saying Beltre pads his defensive stats by hogging the ball?
That’s funny, Sky.
He was making up for the Yunibomber’s ineptitude. He didn’t have a choice.
haha nice nickname
Overall, a player’s defensive ability remains fairly constant deep into his 30′s. Range is the biggest factor, but moreso for outfielders and middle infielders than corner infielders, and often times an infielder’s loss in range is offset by a reduction in errors. This is probably why a large percentage third basemen peak with the glove in their early/mid 30′s. Errors are more common at 3B than any other position, especially for young players, and range isn’t a huge factor.
^ Sorry, this was in reference to Connecticut Mike’s question.
I know there was a study done on Tango’s blog that looked at aging curves for fielding. Are there any others out there? That is interesting info.
Became as Mariners fan over the kast two seasons because I loved their philosophy. Very exciting my lifelong team is now adapting to the same philosophy.
I’m not too sure about that Best Defensive 3B Ever comment. Seems a bit early to start throwing that around. Especially since his career UZR/150 is in line with a guy like Pedro Feliz and lower than a guy like Scott Rolen. If you are limiting to Best Ever (Since 2002) then ok, but I can’t really see the point in throwing around that Best Ever stuff for someone that still has a bit of time to play…guys only like what 30?
No one here called him the best ever.
To be fair you did state: “You’ll never see another third baseman play the hot corner as well as you’ll see it played in 2010. “
Wow ok, I guess I read this to mean you thought he was one of the Best Ever…
“Beltre isn’t just a good defender. He is in the conversation of the best defensive third baseman of all time”
anyway, I don’t see it yet…
I think all the ‘best EVER’ or for your sake, ‘in the conversation of the best defensive third baseman of all time’ is silly given that we can’t possibly quantify guys like Brooks Robinson or Mike Schmidt the same way we can players today.
I don’t even think he qualifies in a barroom discussion of the best defensive third base EVER (feel free to replace EVER with of all time if it makes you feel better)
Anyone who hasn’t seen him play 3rd on a regular basis should be banned from commenting on his defense.
F Erik E, You can go watch TV clips of Robinson and Schmidt, there out there go find them. But they certainly don’t have the ability to go back and quantify every hit in their zones they way we can now. What stats would you use to measure the difference between Schmidt, Robinson and Beltre? Number of Gold Gloves? Did they award them back then based on offense? Fielding Percenatage? Number of Errors? It is a silly argument because no one would ever be right. Do you see the logic in this? How do you prove what 3B was the best ever defensively? Robinson because everyone says so? Aren’t we supposed to question the status quo…
Yeah, I’m not sure how you can say Beltre as clearly better than Scott Rolen. I’m fine dropping Feliz out of the conversation due to the lesser amount of innings player, but Rolen’s numbers are extremely impressive as well. Not to mention that Tango’s Fan Scouting Report put Rolen .02 points behind Beltre.
Agreed…Beltre might be among the best in the UZR/150 era (again, based on how much stock you put in UZR), but it seems premature to enter him into the conversation for greatest alltime, especially when you consider the status of his contemporaries.
Speaking of Feliz, it’s funny how the Astros were ridiculed a bit for signing him, while Boston’s signing of Beltre is being treated like they signed Mike Schmidt.
Yes because the Astros are in the same situation as the Red Sox. Signing a veteran 3rd baseman is exactly what the Astros need right now. I’m sure his veteran presence and World Series experience will push them over the top in 2010!!!
ok, but they’re going to give up an awful amount of doubles down the line if they don’t have anyone playing 3B.
Feliz has averaged about 1.5 WAR over the last few years, and the Astros paid him about $4.5M.
just b/c the Astros aren’t expected to make the playoffs doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to make value-appropriate signings where they can.
So since Lowell is around a +2 win player, and Beltre around a +3 win player, how exactly is spending 10 million for that one extra win a good move for Boston…?
Really, this was a waste of money that could have been better spent on the bullpen. They should have swapped Youk and Lowell and hoped that that Lowell at 1B would give a bigger difference in defense than the standard positional adjustment.
You really think the Red Sox aren’t going to trade Lowell?
they will still have to pay most of his salary, so the point stands.
meaning that you haven’t disproved his argument by saying the Sox will trade Lowell.
didn’t mean to imply that i agree that Beltre wasn’t a good signing.
However if the Sox do trade Lowell and pay most of his salary they are bound to get a decent return, perhaps in the form of an improved bullpen. Assuming the pay 7 or 8 million of Lowell’s salary and gain a 2 WAR player in return for him, they have added 3 wins in return for 5 or 6 million in extra salary plus what ever the player they get in return is making.
Considering they just tried trading Lowell for a minor league catcher, and still had to pay 9 million in the deal, do you really think this is going to happen?
Plus, Boston would then have to take on the salary of whoever they acquire. It’s unlikely they’ll manage to acquire a major league 2 WAR player for 5 million dollars or less. And at 5 million dollars, value wise, that doesn’t do anything, it’s just break even.
Everyone’s overreacting to this deal because of how good Beltre is. But they’re forgetting that Lowell is far and away a serviceable major league player.
Adding a 2 WAR player only nets you 2 WAR when you are dropping out a replacement level player. Not sure where on the Red Sox roster adding a 2 WAR player will do that. I don’t see them adding a Papelbon to the bullpen.
vr, Xei
To be fair, there’s a difference between “a minor league catcher” and “a solid catching prospect currently in the minor leagues.” Ramirez is the latter. Some of that $9 million they would send to Texas would be a payment for getting a decent prospect back.
That was also part of my original point.
Everyone is assuming that Lowell is done, but if he is full recovered from his hip surgery, then it is reasonable to think that he could be improve his defense while maintaining his typical offense. If that were to happen, it would be very unlikely that Beltre would be much better, not to mention $10mn better. Assuming this signing leaves Lowell has a DFA or dump trade candidate, then the question that needs to be ask is what would “add more wins”: Beltre or Lowell + $10mn spent elsewhere.
It looks unlikely that Lowell will be a 2-win player going forward. In 4 of the last 5 seasons (and both of the last 2), his offense has been good for 1/2 win or less. He’ll be 36 in 2010, his defense is slipping (perhaps a 1-year thing, but given the age, it could easily be real), and he’s missed 1/4 of the season each of the last 2 years. His .305 BABIP in 2009 was the highest he’s ever had, outside of his awesome 2007, so he doesn’t seem to have been unlucky. If his offensive and defensive contributions cancel each other out and his playing time is reduced, he gets 15-16 replacement runs and 1-2 positional runs, and he’s a 1.8-win player. If he moves to 1st, his value decreases. How likely is a first-timer to provide defense that overcomes the -12.5-run positional adjustment?
The Red Sox took a gamble that he’d hold up for 3 years, and it doesn’t appear to have paid off. At least they didn’t give him the 4th year. Now they are willing to pay him to play elsewhere. Sure, it looks like a lot of money to spend for an extra win, but:
1) I bet it’s more like 1.5-2 extra wins (Beltre>Lowell)
2) The Sox need extra wins more than most teams and have the money to pay for them, especially if it’s only for a year.
Not to mention that the Rangers offered a pretty solid minor leaguer for Lowell (and of course, 3/4ths his salary). Maybe the Red Sox won’t score a Max Ramirez caliber player going forward, but they can get something out of Lowell.
Fine, catching prospect, but the point is he won’t be in the majors this year, and so he’s irrelevant to affecting major league value this year.
Okay wicked late but I’m going to address this.
The Red Sox, by the perverse level of quality of teams in the AL East, constantly remain high on the win curve. A marginal win to Boston is always important.
Not to mention CHONE is likely optimistic on Lowell’s glove at this point. He’s probably closer to the FANS projection (for once).
So +2 bat, -4 glove, +16 replacement, +1.5 positional = 1.5-1.6 marginal wins.
CHONE pretty much has the same bat projection for Beltre (well, a little higher, +2.5 due to playing time). That seems fair, he has 2009 badness downside, but finally moving to a hitter’s park upside. I’ll just go w/ +2.5
Okay, +2.5 offense, +13 glove, +18 replacement, +2 positional = 3.5 marginal wins.
Let’s say that is pessimistic – optimistic. Let’s say Lowell’s range is 1.5-2.5 marginal wins.
Beltre’s is 2.5-4.5 marginal wins.
So Red Sox are either getting nothing (which is a perfectly fine risk for a team w/ their money) to $3.33MM / MW, which is excellent ROI. And here’s how Beltre did in the 5 most hitter friendly AL ballparks in 2009 (stunningly the new Yankee stadium isn’t on here, though it was wicked HR friendly):
89 PA, 83 AB, .349/.371/.518, 3 HR.
A lot of that is .371 BABIP, to be fair. So let’s dock 5 singles to normalize his BABIP:
89 PA, 83 AB, .289/.315/.458, 3 HR.
Still, .289/.315/.458 from a defensive guru is pretty damn efficient.
“Beltre isn’t just a good defender. He is in the conversation of the best defensive third baseman of all time”
Dave -
Since about 1960 there hasn’t even been a conversation about the best defensive third baseman of all time. Brooks Robinson is the best defensive third baseman of all time. Conversation over. Everyone else is just fighting for second place.
well that wasn’t really a conversation then, was it?
Nice monologue, though.
Dave is given to a little mariner’s/recent history hyperbole. Like beltre is among the best defensive 3b’s ever and Edgar martinez’s double in ’95 division series will live forever as one of the most dramatic hits in baseball history, or whatever he said about Edgar in the article yesterday.
That said, he may be right. Beltre is one of the 2 best with Rolen in the last decade or so, evidently, and the Edgar hit was pretty dramatic. I just like giving dave grief.
His main point here is right, and I thank this site for educating me about it (fielding value, etc.). I do think uzr/war values get overplayed in short term, but this is different. Beltre is a great fielder and his uzr bears that out over a long stretch; his hitting numbers were hurt by safeco and should be helped by Fenway, assuming he is healthy. Nice deal.
Since we all can agree Rolen’s good, wonder what kind of Hall of Fame support he’ll eventually get.
If he doesn’t get a lot of support, I’ll be pissed.
Beltre – one of the greatest of all-time? Maybe, but he’s no better than Rolen in his own generation….It’s an absolute joke how the fielding “metrics” lovers will justify a mediocre, undisciplined bat while Beltre gets to 1 more ground ball
for every 7 games played than an average 3B. This guy is a younger version of Pedro Feliz – .265 20 80 .320 .430
The “Metrics” lovers will do anything possible to polish Theo’s apple as long as Epstein buys into their ad nauseum analysis. You want numbers? Beltre is a career 105 OPS+ hitter for his career. They should have tested his urine/blood/salive when he hit the 48 dingers with a .325 average. Take out that season and he’s 101 OPS+
you say 105 OPS+ as if it were bad.
Well, if you’re going to pick pepper out of fly shit, take out the 2004 season and he’s really at 97 OPS+; not the 101 OPS+ I had previously stated. I imagine that would give him an OWP of about .485….AND he’s a corner infielder. I guess the swing-from- his-heels 2B will make up for it (like Utley did for Feliz)?
All this,accomplished in his twenties. I don’t know what percentage of non-steroid era ballplayers were better in their thirties, but, I imagine it’s less than one in ten? Do you think this guy is the exception?
Way to ignore the Safeco effect
This is almost hilariously bad a stat-geek zinga.
So a league average hitter with a +10-15 glove is a bad thing? Dave even said himself Beltre is a 3-3.5 WAR player.
Usually I don’t react like this but…FELIZ? AHAHAHAHAHAHHA
Feliz has a career OPS+ of 83. Eighty-three. Even without Beltre’s big year, Beltre is far better than Feliz. Beltre’s batting wins above average, per b-r, is +3.5. Feliz is -10.5. If you want it in replacement-level hitter terms (-2 BW / 600 PA), Feliz is a +3.2 and Beltre is a +26.4 in their respective careers.
Also, Beltre in 2008 went .292/.349/.512 on the road.
Safeco Field effect, total
Beltre:
Home: 1,481 PA, .254/.307/.410, 48 HR, 66 2B
Away: 1,578 PA, .277/.326/.472, 55 HR, 106 2B
I see no reason why that can’t resemble Beltre’s slash line in 2010.
And I have him projected at .270/.326/.487 in 2010. Safe assumption, imo.
Best defensive 3B ever?
Well, I’d put Longoria and Zimmerman ahead of him right now (due to his recent injuries). All time, I’d easily put Brooks and Michael Jack ahead of him.
No love for Clete Boyer?
If you’re going to go “no-hit & all-glove”, how about Aurelio Rodriguez?
I’d venture a guess that Nettles, Schmidt, Brooks, and Rolen have to be in everyone’s top ten?
Would the Red Sox be free to offer arbitration to Beltre if he performs well enough to earn a Type A or Type B ranking? That would make this contract even better for them.
that might come down to the specific wording in his contract, but in general there would be no reason why they couldn’t. if they buy out his option, he’s a FA and subject to the same rules as any other FA.
After reading this, I’m thinkin that Zduriencik is an idiot – letting Beltre go and signing Figgins and his bloated 09 season long term.
After reading that, I’m thinkng you’re an idiot
Beltre wasn’t going back to Seattle, he obviously wanted to play in a ballpark that didn’t reduce his OPs by 20 or 30 percent.
After it looks like he had a big year in Fenway (which could easily just be a non Safeco year for him) people will say he’s the comeback player of the year, etc., and some GM will sign him to a big multiyear deal. At least, that is most likely what Boras is thinking.
Figgins for 9 mil a year, even losing a pick, is a good signing. Outside of that terrible 2006, Figgins has always had that kind of value, 2009 was just a breakout.
And of course a lot of his 2006 badness was just getting moved all over the place. He finally got to settle into a spot in the field and shined.
Except for the fact that there was no way in hell Beltre would resign in Seattle. He hated it there and was on the record saying so.
Even if offered Figgins-esque numbers? Come on….
He was offered arbitration, where he would have made more than he signed for in Boston, and he declined. He wasn’t a whiner about it, but he obviously really wanted to leave that park and re-establish his value somewhere more friendly to someone with his skill set.
I’m interested to see the matchups. He has dominated righty sinkerballers in his career and really struggled against power lefties. Then again, recently the L/R platoon split has increased significantly. And in the past few years his LD/GB% has fluctuated wildly. Park factors are interesting, but I’ll be watching how he matches up against an entire staff for Tampa of pitcher types who he has struggled against, or if he can give them anything at all in what will be at ~ 12 ABs against Sabathia. Then again, in his career he has dominated Vazquez and fared okay against Burnett. He could feast on the two ground ball lefties for Toronto. I think he could be a big plus against some teams in the division and really, really struggle against others. It will all average out, but we’ll see if Sox fans are able to accept a zero bat against the teams they need to beat, especially since they now have no true impact bats in that lineup.
For some reason, Total Zone does not like him as much as UZR. His defensive ratings the last 3 years are: -3, +10, +6. And, he projects him to be just +4 with the glove this year.
For his career, it is estimated that he has saved 96 runs. From 2002, UZR has Beltre as saving 104 runs. Total Zone has him at saving 79 runs. Still very, very good, though.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/b/belta001.htm
3B All time greats:
Best defensive 3B of all time – Brooks Robinson…no question whatsoever.
Best all around 3B of all time – Mike Schmidt…again no question whatsoever.
I really don’t care about subjective opnions on the greatest of anything, but I can say with conviction that after watching this video, Beltre has the best INF arm I have ever seen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8IKDeH9SEg
Jack Z did not let Beltre go. He offered arbitration and Beltre declined. The Mariners will get a decent draft pick.
Is it possible that Boston’s more patient hitting philosophy and quality of hitters will somehow influence Beltre’s approach at the plate? If he can lay off more of those outside sliders… Also he needs to stop checking with the 1st base ump on every checked swing. Drives me nuts. Loved watching him play 3B though.
Anyone who doesn’t believe Beltre is the best 3B will be convinced this year because he will actually make the highlights now that he is playing in Boston. He’s going to hit better in Boston too obviously but you’re going to hear a lot more about Adrian Beltre this year now that he’s playing for one of ESPN’s teams(Red Sox, Phillies and NYY).
Boston fans are going to LOVE this guy. Ultimate team player , never complains , plays everyday as hard as he can everyday and does it all in the COOLEST/CRAZIEST way possible. If you don’t know what I mean just pay attention to the style he does everything with this year…. He stops his feet on purpose just to show he can throw lasers flatfooted accross the diamond , he points to the firstbase umpire HIMSELF when he checks his swing , makes the the most amazing plays on slow rollers and even does that in his own crazy way.
My brother playsfor an NL team and said he hoped Beltre signed in the NL just so he would get a chance to watch him play a few times this year!
Get ready for BELTREMANIA in Boston
Wait, who’s your brother?
David Right, obviously
I’d take Zimmerman’s glove over his any day of the week. Have you ever actually watch Zimmerman play? He’s ridiculous.
And that’s not an insult to Beltre.
I have watched zimmerman play a lot actually and beltre is still better.
All these posts and no one bothered pointing out that Beltre flashing in front of his shorstop to steal balls doesn’t actually help the team record more outs.
typical red sox BS again. Last week Beltre was a declining ballplayer who nobody wanted. The Sawx sign him and now he’s Mike Schmidt & Brooks Robinson put together.
Give me a break.
How dare you insult Beltre by comparing him to bums like Robinson and Michael Jack. He’s ten times the player either of them were combined…ESPN and NESN both told me so.
I heartily await the Peter Gammons article stating the same thing.
Because saying he’s a 3-3.5 WAR player is totally insane and biased and Red Sox-irific.
Give me a break, and the 10 seconds I spent replying to your post.
Gotta love the polarizing opinions that come from discussing a Red Sox player or a Yankees player, obviously Beltre being a Red Sox player in this case. Beltre’s glove is his calling card, but he is decent with the stick as well. Anyone who doesn’t realize that his numbers were greatly effected (negatively) by playing in SAFECO clearly has their head in the sand. I suggest picking up Bill James handbook and taking a peak at his park indices section and the effect on right handed batter HR totals AND batting average. I’d be absolutely shocked if Beltre’s offensive numbers don’t take a substantial leap forward moving to a doubles palace for right handed hitters in Boston. As a Giants fan I’m very disappointed they didn’t aggressively pursue him as his bat would have played well in AT&T and his glove is flat out awesome. I could have lived with Pablo shifting to 1B if that were the case, but shifting him to 1B for DeRosa… not so much.
The problem is that many Yankee fans and Red Sox fans don’t bother to pay any attention to the many articles that say how great Adrian Beltre the Mariner or Curtis Granderson the Tiger is until the Yankees or Red Sox acquire these players, and that’s when the rest of us all have to put up with nonsense because they weren’t paying attention to anything else in baseball but their own small corner of it.
It’s the Scott Brosius effect….He wasn’t even the equivalent of Gene Freese or Don Hoak, gets traded to the Yankees and now he’s Eddie Mathews.
WAR? What is a team of “Replacement” level players capable of? 54-108 and a .333 winning percentage? If so, Beltre is at 3 WAR and a team of 9 “Beltres” wins 27 more games AND GOES .500 (81-81). It ain’t that simple, but he sure isn’t better than 18 Win Shares/162 games
What any 3b does at bat is far more important than what he does in the field – it’s just not that significant a defensive position. His bat is average his whole career except for 2004…and HE doesn’t know how he did it in 2004
“it’s just not that significant a defensive position.”
I am now convinced you are trolling as nobody could possibly be this deluded.
Of course he’s trolling.
At least I hope he is.
BTW, the replacement level baseline for WAR is ~ 47 wins. An average team can be expected to produce 18.3 WAR from a lineup and ~ 16 from a pitching staff. If a team has 9 Beltre’s and an average pitching staff, that’s a 90 win team, not 81.
Another problem with this.
If we assume that a replacement level team wins 47 games (the fangraphs WAR baseline), and we use the conventional 52/48 breakdown of position and pitcher, then a replacement level lineup is about 74 win shares (I round up since the real WAR baseline is a little over 47 wins).
If a team averages around 6200 PA per season, then a replacement level player will provide (47*600)/6200 win shares per 600 PA, or about 4.55 win shares. That means a 3 WAR player IS better than 18 win shares / 162. In fact, he’s over 20% better than that.
Ignorance is only a minute part of it. Sheer mind numbing epic stupidity is the primary factor. There is a reason that most knowledgeable RS fans hold a burning hate for many other RS fans.
Nowadays it unfortunately feels like a good 75-85% of Red Sox fans fall into either the pink hat crowd or the mouthbreathers. The pink hatters, while annoying, rarely stir the pot for the simple fact that they know absolutely nothing about baseball or even the members of their own team other than that Jacoby is the best player ever, home runs are good, and they are supposed to sing Sweet Caroline and yell “Yoook” when he comes up. Thus they wear a “B” and go to Fenway because it’s the cool thing to do right now.
The mouthbreathers on the other hand flood every forum and comment section they can find with their beliefs that “THEO IS THE WORST GM IN BASEBALL. SMOTZ AND PENNY COST US 2009. BELTRA IS A BUM. BOY WONDER AND HIS STAT GEEK CRAP ARE USELESS. JD DREW WORTH 14 MIL YEAH RIGHT HE HIT .260. BELTRE ONLY 8 HR!! I DIDNT SEE ANY PROBLEM WITH SOX DEFENSE. THE FIELDING % LOOKS FINE TO ME. TRADE LUGO LOWELL ELSBURY AND PAPELBUM FOR A-GON THEN SIGN MAUER. WORST OFFSEASON EVER, SHOULD HAVE SIGNED HOLLIDAY. SOX WILL HAVE WORSE OFFENSE EVER AND FINISH 3RD. FIRE THEO.”
This demographic also exhibits a stunning mastery of what I call the Peter Griffin Effect, in which detailed explanation of why they are mistaken results in them repeating their previous statement with increased conviction.
They sure are fun to troll though.
Thank god for places like this .
/Rant
It is very clear to tell what group of Red Sox fans are what.
Our wish list:
Cameron
Beltre
Scutaro for cheap
Theirs:
Bay
Holliday
Gonzalez
An Adrian Gonzalez trade is just a blah idea to me. Imagine the prospects we would have to part with.
From what I’m gathering, RSN thinks this is a low 90′s win team. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how we got worse from 2009 to 2010.
Because most of RSN believes offensive capability or lack of it = # of HR. Thus Bay and his shiny 36 HR leaving represents a catastrophic downgrade because Cameron might only hit 20-25! Oh no! Beltre only hit 8 HR last year! That’s much less than Lowell! Horrible signing!
They also place little to no value on defense as to the casual fan “good defense” simply means “They don’t make errors” as opposed to heavily influencing BABIP and run prevention.
More like to the casual fan, whoever the broadcast team tells them is a great defender, is a great defender:
See: Teixeira, Mark; Jeter, Derek; Hunter, Torii, Hudson, Orlando; Ellsbury, Jacoby.
It’s the intangibles – as in, they don’t touch as many balls as they should.
You’re criticizing casual fans by pointing out that, unlike what they’ve been told, Ellsbury is not a good defender, although you are basing that opinion on a sample size the creator of UZR says is too small. Meanwhile, scouts have referred to Ellsbury’s D as ‘elite’, and the defender I saw in 2008 was actually pretty excellent.
I expect better than this from you, Joe.
I didn’t say Ellsbury was a bad defender, and I think he’ll be a good CF in the long run. I just pointed him out as someone who may get more praise for his defense than deserved, and that there’s other, less heralded players with better gloves.
Ok. My bad. I guess I considered the association you made with Jeter, Hunter and Hudson more than the point you were making.
Well Jeter, Hudson, and Hunter aren’t bad defenders, either. They’ve historically been average-ish (with a position adjustment). There’s nothing wrong w/ being an average defender, especially when you can hit.
The point I was making was just that they get too much hype, and people buy into it. Example: Teixeira’s glove in 2004 and 2009 were pretty much the same. Why did no one care in 04, but he’s the hands down GG’r in 09?
Yeah, he does. We agree there. I do however believe Ellsbury has the tools to be an excellent defender (not ‘elite’. That was hyperbole on my part. He’ll never have the arm to an elite defender), whereas the others range from poor to ok.
Me too, hence I’m a little surprised Ellsbury’s the one moving to LF instead of Cameron.
“Beltre’s decision not to wear a cup despite playing third base has been well-documented.[2] This really came back to hurt him on August 13, 2009, when he took a hard ground ball to the crotch.
Although he stayed in for the remainder of the 14 inning victory, he was put on the DL after suffering bleeding in one of his testicles.[7]
In his first game back from the DL from that injury, teammate Ken Griffey Jr. conspired with those responsible for the Safeco Field PA system to have Beltre’s at-bat intro music be the waltz from The Nutcracker Suite.[8]”
…lol
Cameron please put down the crack pipe!
Boyer, Nettles, and a guy named Brooks Robinson.
And remember with 575 AB, Beltre becomes a 10MM albatross for 2011. Can’t wait to see the fans reaction to his .320 OBP and lack of clutch hitting.
Beltre’s contract options for 2011 are a $1 million team buyout or $5m player option.
If you are going to spout fiction then there are plenty of Boston.com commenters happy to join. I believe my favorite one recently was a guy who advocated trading JD Drew for Derek Lowe.
I believe my favorite one recently was a guy who advocated trading JD Drew for Derek Lowe.
My head hurts
“…and lack of clutch hitting.
Beltre, career: .270/.325/.453
Beltre, RISP: .265/.344/.433
Beltre, 2 outs, RISP: .240/.350/.407
Beltre, men on: .266/.330/.439
Beltre, WPA, career: +5.23
Yeah man, zOMG.
Red Sox prepared to make their big plays with
the 2010 and 2011 free agent class
With the Red Sox coming to a close on addressing their needs to start the 2010 season, it is becoming apparent that they are going to go big in the following two free agent classes because of the retiring contracts in the next two years.
Some of the big retiring contracts include Drew = $14 million (2011), Ortiz = $13 million (2010), Lowell = $12.5 million (2010), Beckett = $12.1 million (2010), Papelbon = $10 million (2011), Lugo = $9.25 million (2010), Beltre = $9 million (2010), Victor Martinez = $7.75 million (2010), Varitek = $3 million (2010), Wakefield = $3.5 million (2011), Hermida = $3 million (2011), Bill Hall = $1.575 million (2010), Billy Wagner = $1 million (2010), Alex Gonzalez = $500,000 (2010), Atchison = $420,000 (2010) = $72.095 million coming off of the books in 2010 and $30.5 million coming off of the books in 2011.
The 2010 luxury tax threshold is $170,000,000 and is based on their 40-man roster.
Following the 2010 season, the Sox have $72.095 million coming off of the books from the following players which brings them to $88 million under the luxury tax threshold not including the $10 million in benefits to be paid for the 2011 roster.
Here are some of the free agents following the 2010 and 2011 seasons:
Free Agents following the 2010 season (as of right now)
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
Paul Konerko
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez (target #2 next year)
Adam Dunn
Carl Crawford (target #1 next year)
Jayson Werth
David Ortiz
re-sign Beckett and Papelbon (target #3 next year) – Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Jonathan Broxton, Houston Street and Frank Francisco are free agents after the 2011 season if Papelbon (2011) and Beckett (2010) do not re-sign prior to entering free agency)
If the $78 million is replaced – it is estimated that Beckett, VMart, Papelbon and Carl Crawford, if the Sox target these players next off-season, could fill $60 of the $78 million hole with $13 million available in savings and for arbitration or club options.
This estimate does not include any other potential adds such as Aroldis Chapman (edit: it looks like he is signing with the Angels or the Blue Jays).
With Cameron signing a deal to play in Boston for the 2010 and 2011 seasons – it also allows Carl Crawford to come into the fold next year since Lowell and Ortiz become free agents after this year and Drew and Hermida becoming free agents after the 2011 season.
Make no mistake – between Cameron, Ellsbury, Drew, Hermida, and Crawford – Crawford is by and far the best outfielder out of the group.
Therefore, the 2011 season could be an outfield of Crawford – Ellsbury – Drew with Cameron being the 4th outfielder and then in 2012 it would be an outfield of Crawford – Ellsbury – Kalish/Reddick.
Free Agents following the 2011 season (as of right now)
Lance Berkman
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Corey Hart
Ryan Ludwick
Manny Ramirez (we know he won’t be back in Boston – but still he will be looking for a new deal)
Dan Uggla
Carlos Beltran
Jose Reyes
Adrian Gonzalez
Ryan Howard
Raul Ibanez
Jimmy Rollins
JD Drew
Brad Hawpe
Jason Kubel
Following the 2011 season, the Sox have $14 million (Drew), an estimated $8-10 million (Papelbon), $4 million net from Scutaro, $3 million from Hermida, $1.5 million (Wakefield), and $100,000 (Atchison) coming off the books totaling $31,600,000 coming off of the books if Papelbon is not targeted.
I think that the Sox could use savings from the previous year and the contracts coming off this year to get one of the 4 premier 1B’s that may become a free agent.
Lots of options…..
And, finally, the $400,000 minimum contracts for this year will likely be swapped out by players in High A – AA ball as they progress which would likely leave guys like Tug Huglett, Dusty Brown, Robert Manuel, Ramon A. Ramirez, and possibly Aaron Bates off of the 40-man roster.
As far as VMart catching – it is not that I am against it but I think that when Kottaras was let go – it finally opened the door for Mark Wagner to win a job. He is the best defensive catcher in the Sox farm system and if he can prove that he can hit at AAA or win the job this spring training then the opportunity for Wagner to catch 50-70 games this year will be there.
If the Sox are trying to improve defensively up the middle – I think that Wagner-Scutaro-Pedroia-Cameron/Ellsbury solidifies that concern for 2010.
But, if the Sox are definitely focused on getting one of the big 1B free agents following the 2011 season then that all could change (Fielder/Pujols/Howard/AGon/Berkman) relating to VMart and if he is re-signed knowing that Wagner/Exposito could be ready for 2012.
Like I said, the big bats that they are looking for are coming up in the next two free agent classes.
And, that is why Epstein is signing a Cameron and Belltre to one-or-two-year deals this off-season, in consideration of the expiring contracts (Drew, Ortiz, Wakefield, Lugo, Beckett, VMart, Papelbon, Lowell and Varitek).
A lot of money is coming off the books between this year and next year which will lead to some of the kids on the farm providing a role in Boston and targeted free agent signings (players in bold will likely be targeted by the Boston FO if they do not reach deals before entering free agency):
It is quite possible that a lot of these guys are going to be free agents following the 2010 and 2011 seasons and the Sox, considering where the Yankees are sitting in terms of payroll, will be able to snag the players that they want because they will have the financial flexibility to do so. Definitely more so than the Yankees – unless of course the Yankees consider having a $230 – $250 million payroll in 2012.
I like the Red Sox’s chances of scoring big following the 2010 season. Ellsbury (cf) – Pedroia (2b) – Pujols/Fielder/Howard/AGon (1b) – Youkilis (3b) – VMart (c) – Crawford (lf/rf) – Kalish (rf) – Lars Anderson (DH) – Iglesias (ss) is a distinct possibility for the 2012 season where the Sox would be positioned to be a dominant team for quite some time with a rotation that looked like this: Beckett/free agent signing – Lester – Lackey – Buchholz – DiceK – Kelly/Bowden.
The Sox are definitely going to spend some money in the following two off-seasons.
The gold is in the 2011 and 2012 free agent class (Fielder/Pujols, Crawford, and re-signing Papelbon, Beckett, VMart while begin to bring the farm to Boston: Lars Anderson, Bowden, Iglesias, Westmoreland, Kelly, Tazawa, Rizzo, Reddick, and Kalish).
Next Off-season: Extend VMart, Beckett and Papelbon; Sign Carl Crawford
And then in 2012: Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Bring one of the kids up (Kalish/Reddick and maybe Westmoreland).
2011 – Ellsbury (lf) – Crawford (rf) – VMart (c) – Youkilis (1b) – Drew (dh) – Pedroia (2b) – Cameron (cf) – Lowrie (3b) – Scutaro (ss)
SP: Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-DiceK-Wakefield/Bowden
2012 – Ellsbury (cf) – Crawford (lf) – Fielder (1B) – VMart (c) – Youkilis (3B) – Pedroia (2b) – Kalish (rf) – Lars Anderson (DH) – Iglesias (ss) SP: Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-DiceK-Bowden-Kelly
TL;DR — Red Sox will have Yankeesque money to spend, and so will spend it like the Yankees. In other news, Red Sox fans are now presuming everyone will end up on the Red Sox the way Yankees fans have always assumed every player will end up in pinstripes.
I will admit if that happens, having a fielder of JD Drew’s quality DHing is pretty astounding (although it might be what gets him to the 150 game mark fans around here want).
But Youkilis at 3B in 2012? You realize that’s 33 year old, fresh off of 2 straight full years and spending the majority of 7 years at 1B, right? That is, and I know Youk is a solid defender, not a good idea imo. And if Fielder was in Boston & Anderson was ready to go, Anderson would be playing first. I know Fielder’s not a terrible, Dunnian fielder, but I can’t imagine running a 270 lb man out there will do a defense very good.
The “things I want for Christmas omgwtfbbq!!” mindset to free agents really aggravates me.
Same, especially since it’s common knowledge the Red Sox are constructed for a big wave of 2011-12 ETA’s. Not to mention if all we have in mind for Anderson is to bat 8th and DH, why the heck is he still in our farm?
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So, this was all some kind of elaborate, sick, joke, right?
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