Ben Zobrist’s WAR
File this under “unlikely results”:
When the Rays acquired Ben Zobrist in the Aubrey Huff trade a few years back, the most impressive tool in his shed was his ability to reach base. Throughout the minors his career .429 on-base percentage made him a desirable stopgap if nothing else. The Rays incumbent shortstop Julio Lugo was moved shortly after and uber prospect B.J. Upton shifted to third base. Zobrist would rack up 198 plate appearances that season, posting a measly .260 OBP and barely hitting a ball out of the infield.
The Rays would persevere with the now 28-year-old Dallas Baptist University product and start him on opening day 2007. In 105 plate appearances his line was .155/.184/.206. Brendan Harris would take over at shortstop – someone with fall-down range – and Zobrist would rake in Triple-A. An injury would sideline Zobrist in 2008 but when he finally reached the majors he took off: blasting 12 home runs in 227 plate appearances.
This was a guy who had the bat knocked out of his hands during his major league stint and someone who hit 23 minor league home runs in 1,642 plate appearances. There was absolutely no way this power surge was legitimate, right? Well, I doubted him based on this information and apparently I was quite wrong. Zobrist secured a starting spot at second base once Akinori Iwamura went down to injury and could finish with 600 plate appearances this season. He’s hit 25 homers and 25 doubles to go with his .924 OPS.
Is this his true talent level? Heavens no. His UZR at second base is 16.1 runs. Former shortstops should perform better at second base, but expecting such a performance again is a bit much. Heck, odds are his power display isn’t legitimate either. Awards aren’t given out on true talent level and expected futures though. It’s all about the actual performances and for that reason Zobrist should garner some AL MVP votes and claim the Rays team MVP award as one of the best stories and best performances of 2009.
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Seemed like he had accumulated maybe 75% of that WAR in the first two months…
He wasn’t as good in the 2nd half, but an .846 OPS from a top tier defender at 2B is nothing to sneeze at.
He’s not going to remain at +8 superstar awesomeness, but +4-5 every year? Perfectly reasonable IMO.
One thing people forget when they say this is totally “unsustainable” is that his 2008 and 2009 ISO? About the same thing.
He’s seen a BABIP increase, but 1) His previous year’s BABIP was .255, and 2) His LD rate has gone up. Maybe he overachieved a little, but his walk rate also went up in 2009, and it’s highly likely that he just became a really good player. Iwamura sounds like trade bait for 2010, maybe to Los Angeles?
I am shocked everytime I click on this site and see his name all over the leaderboards!
A monster. With his always present OBP and, now, realized SLG, he is insanely valuable. Good job by TB grabbing him. He’s a top 3 2nd baseman.
I watched him in Durham in ‘08 and completely ignored him despite his great numbers. I gobbled up every Reid Brignac at bat I could get to, though. Funny how expectations can completely blind to as to what someone is capable of. I remember describing him to my girlfriend as a back-up infielder in the big leagues. She asked why he was doing so well with the Bulls if was only a back-up. Sometimes it pays to listen to your girlfriend.
I’m sorry R.J., but you’ve doubted Ben based on the math once and were incorrect. What makes you think the improved performance over Zobrist’s last 8 months of play is illegitimate? Is it beyond reason that hitters can still learn new attributes, even after 1,800 paid at bats?
Miguel Cabrera should be 2nd in the AL MVP race… I know Mauer deserves it, but after him noone is more deserving than Cabrera in the AL….
His defense is better this year than Texeria’s, and he has a high OPS…. his RBI totals are lower, but he doesnt have Jeter in front of him….
He is the lone good hitter on a team that is about to make the playoffs…
If you sort by WAR in the AL, it goes Zobrist – Mauer – Jeter, though that may undervalue Mauer b/c his defense at C isn’t rated here but is supposed to be very good.
I don’t see how Cabrera, who has had an excellent year, somehow deserves to be #2 (not that it really matters).
FWIW, Mauer has a +3 FRAA
He worked out with a hitting instructor before the 2008 season. The guy sounds like a snake oil salesman, but you can’t argue with results. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Zobrist put up .280-25-90 for the next couple years.
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/4/23/849233/cracking-the-zobrist-code-what-is
I read that early this year. I don’t know, it just got me thinking he is legit, at least this year. Best story of the year. Bartlett was pretty damn good too.
Same here. I took a gamble on him when Reyes went down. Now I have a nice fantasy champion trophy.
You’re totally dead one that Zobrist is one of the most valuable players in the AL this year. That being said, I’d be surprised if he even cracks the top 10 in MVP voting. The writers don’t know who he is, they don’t know that he was great defensively this year, and the Rays were a mediocre team, so there is no reason for them to dig deeper to find out more about him. So he’ll get screwed over big time. They’ll definitely vote these guys over him – Mauer, Youkilis, Cabrera, Teixeira, Jeter, Morales. Then they will also probably take these guys over him: Longoria, Greinke, Sabathia, Verlander, A-Rod, Abreu, Morneau, Rivera, and Hunter. It’s not cool at all, but lots of the voters are still slaves to HRs and RBIs and Avg and Wins and Playing on a Winning Team. Zobrist probably won’t stand out to them enough to even crack the top ten.
Oh yeah Bartlett too. They like Bartlett better because they’ve heard of him before and he has a higher Avg and a great defensive rep.
alskor, I think Longoria is the one who accumulated a good chunk of his WAR in the first 2 months. Zobrist has been steady all season long, unlike Longo, who was miserable for 3 months or so in the middle of the year.
My guess is we’ll never talk about Ben Zobrist again, but I could be wrong.
you guys need to watch him play, the power is real. whatever mechanical adjustments he made with that hitting instructor in 2008 worked, because he’s been a monster ever since.
I agree that his hitting may not be as fluky as it looks, but we REALLY need to keep an open mind about his UZR this year. He didn’t show anything like that previous to this season, and that’s where a large part of his WAR is coming from. Did he suddenly go from a subpar shortstop to the best defensive 2nd baseman in the league? (and an all world right fielder?) I doubt it.
Very good player, but this is a prime example of when to not just take one year UZR ratings at face value.
I’m surprised – and glad – that there’re no steroid allegations being thrown out there. I mean, Zobrist is a guy who never demonstrated much power, and then all of a sudden cracks 25 HR as a 28 year old? I’m all for guys learning new skills, but (a) it doesn’t seem like you can just *learn* power, and (b) for the majority of his career, he’s not demonstrated .900+ OPS ability. I hope it’s just a fluky season, but he seems to me like a guy who would be squarely under the steroid microscope.
Also, w/r/t Rays’ team MVP: their awarding it to Brendan Harris last year – he of the fall-down range and empty ~.300 BA – sort of makes me think that they’re going to give it to Pat Burrell this year.
Ummm, it was Bartlett, not Harris.
Wait. You’re glad no one is casting a steroid shadow? Is that so that you can beat them to it?
I’m not saying he did steroids, I’m just saying that I’m glad it’s not one of those situations where the media are playing the did he/didn’t he game. Of course, that’s probably just because most of them don’t, yknow, know who he is, or that his season is so out-of-nowhere.
Guaranteed it would’ve been if he played in a bigger market / ESPN gave him some sort of attention / etc.
I really don’t understand people who always assume steroids, why would you bother watch a sport when you can get no joy from it? Blah blah everyone’s on roids, everyone sucks, blah blah, seems like a shitty way to watch.
The plate discipline looks real, but the ISO? I understand that it’s the same as what he did in 200 PA last year, but where the hell did that come from?
@Padman Jones
In 2008 Zobrist hit 12 HRs in 198 ABs.
The offense is real – he always had excellent contact skills, and if you follow the minor league trends you can see the rapid progression of his power by watching the ratio of HR/2b. Only players with excellent power can attain a ratio of 1+, as he did in 08 as well as 09, plus in a small number of AB in AAA in 2008. Very unlikely that a player with only moderate power could do that two years running, especially playing full time against all types of pitching. Middle IF power peaks in their late 20’s, though may not last as long, but Z’s combination of excellent contact/OBA and power plus defensive versatility should make him a tremendously valuable asset for the next few years at the very least. You just can’t ignore the similarity to his 2008 numbers (when he was actually a bit unlucky).
He also had 303 PA before 2008 where he hit .200/.234/.275 with 3 HR. He had 23 HR in 1642 minor league PA, and never more than 7 in a season. His career minor league slugging % was .459. He did slug ~.500 in his last two seasons combined, but then he came up to the bigs and had horrendous seasons in ‘06 and ‘07…it looked like he just couldn’t translate the skills to the next level. That’s why it’s so surprising that he’s turned himself into a star hitter so quickly, and just a couple of years ago, people would probably be accusing him of steroid use.
What I’m trying to say is that it’s a good thing people aren’t jumping on that bandwagon. Personally, I’m willing to believe that he’s just a late bloomer (when he started to hit well in the minors, he’d just turned 26) and that working with that swing coach really did help him. I hope he keeps hitting like he is, because it’s fun watching guys perform like that.
And it’s official.
Ben Zobrist, according to fangraphs’ WAR, is the best player in Major League Baseball in 2009.
I hope some writer gets a hold of this and tries a half-assed shot at “stat geeks” for it.
You beat me to it, wow… Vegas odds on this happening around 1,000,000 – 1??
Reasons why playing the lottery isn’t always stupid
Occasionally crazy crap like this happens.