Comments on: Bengie Molina Hits The Market http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103966 B Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:20:05 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103966 I see people use this a lot, but I think it's a misleading point to make. "He’s clearly miscast as a cleanup hitter, but that’s not his fault, that is an issue for the Giants." My problem with Molina batting cleanup is simply that it shows that Sabean/Bochy have no idea what qualities in a hitter actually lead to runs. It has nothing to do with Molina, really. My problem that does have to do with Molina is that, quite simply, he's a very bad hitter. He's not just bad for a cleanup hitter - he's a bad hitter for a starter, period. He had the 2nd worst OBP in all of baseball (anyone surprised Betancourt was worst?). 25 catchers, the worst hitting position in baseball, with 200+ PA's had higher wOBA's than Molina. Quite simply he was one of the worst offensive players that started regularly in all of baseball. I see people use this a lot, but I think it’s a misleading point to make.

“He’s clearly miscast as a cleanup hitter, but that’s not his fault, that is an issue for the Giants.”

My problem with Molina batting cleanup is simply that it shows that Sabean/Bochy have no idea what qualities in a hitter actually lead to runs. It has nothing to do with Molina, really. My problem that does have to do with Molina is that, quite simply, he’s a very bad hitter. He’s not just bad for a cleanup hitter – he’s a bad hitter for a starter, period. He had the 2nd worst OBP in all of baseball (anyone surprised Betancourt was worst?). 25 catchers, the worst hitting position in baseball, with 200+ PA’s had higher wOBA’s than Molina. Quite simply he was one of the worst offensive players that started regularly in all of baseball.

]]> By: SF_Bern http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103744 SF_Bern Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:39:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103744 My take is this. The article does a good job of illustrating what/who Molina is; a slow, low OBP, average defensive catcher with very good isolated power with consistent level of production in his 30's. He's clearly miscast as a cleanup hitter, but that's not his fault, that is an issue for the Giants. To make matters worse the Giants self admittedly over-worked Molina, in the first 5 months of the season Molina started 103 of 131 games, with 19 DNP's, 5 of those DNP's occurred during the last 10 days of August when he was nursing an injury. Given the Giants offensive woes especially their lack of power, wouldn't the Giant have a ton of incentive to retain a player who offers power/ave defense at a hard to fill position? Further more by offering Molina arbitration don't they just crush his free agent market value? I see a win/semi-win scenario for the Giants should they offer him arbitration. He leaves and they get the picks, he stays and they get him on a 1yr albeit slightly pricey non guaranteed deal. Posey is not ready to be a full time starter, he needs to get bigger/stronger, reviews of him in Sept & the AFL are that he's hit a wall. Breaking him into the Majors as a semi regular sharing time with Molina is probably a win win for both players and the club. The X factor will be whether or not Molina finds that scenario to his liking and will he desire a 2nd yr on the contract which he will be in all likelihood a backup and cause him to decline arbitration. My take is this. The article does a good job of illustrating what/who Molina is; a slow, low OBP, average defensive catcher with very good isolated power with consistent level of production in his 30′s. He’s clearly miscast as a cleanup hitter, but that’s not his fault, that is an issue for the Giants. To make matters worse the Giants self admittedly over-worked Molina, in the first 5 months of the season Molina started 103 of 131 games, with 19 DNP’s, 5 of those DNP’s occurred during the last 10 days of August when he was nursing an injury.

Given the Giants offensive woes especially their lack of power, wouldn’t the Giant have a ton of incentive to retain a player who offers power/ave defense at a hard to fill position? Further more by offering Molina arbitration don’t they just crush his free agent market value?

I see a win/semi-win scenario for the Giants should they offer him arbitration. He leaves and they get the picks, he stays and they get him on a 1yr albeit slightly pricey non guaranteed deal. Posey is not ready to be a full time starter, he needs to get bigger/stronger, reviews of him in Sept & the AFL are that he’s hit a wall. Breaking him into the Majors as a semi regular sharing time with Molina is probably a win win for both players and the club. The X factor will be whether or not Molina finds that scenario to his liking and will he desire a 2nd yr on the contract which he will be in all likelihood a backup and cause him to decline arbitration.

]]> By: ElJimador http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103722 ElJimador Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:49:09 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103722 It's hard to know which way the wind blows on Molina in Giants land. At his post season press conference with Bochy, Sabean said that Molina had "an incredible year" and that his numbers proved it. But he also acknolwedged (obliquely at the presser but then more directly in an email from the FO to Giants fans) that the Giants needed to improve their team OBP and that would be one of the priorities of the offseason. Which one of these 2 entirely contradictory statements he's sincere about is anyone's guess. I hope it's the latter but I've learned not to project my rationality on to Giants management. I mean, it's not like they've done anything to this point to suggest that they know what OBP even stands for, really. So I hardly discount the notion they will be dumb enough to re-sign him, even (gulp) to a 2 year deal, plugging him right back into the cleanup spot. Because that's the Giants and that's how they roll. It’s hard to know which way the wind blows on Molina in Giants land. At his post season press conference with Bochy, Sabean said that Molina had “an incredible year” and that his numbers proved it. But he also acknolwedged (obliquely at the presser but then more directly in an email from the FO to Giants fans) that the Giants needed to improve their team OBP and that would be one of the priorities of the offseason. Which one of these 2 entirely contradictory statements he’s sincere about is anyone’s guess. I hope it’s the latter but I’ve learned not to project my rationality on to Giants management. I mean, it’s not like they’ve done anything to this point to suggest that they know what OBP even stands for, really. So I hardly discount the notion they will be dumb enough to re-sign him, even (gulp) to a 2 year deal, plugging him right back into the cleanup spot. Because that’s the Giants and that’s how they roll.

]]> By: Jim http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103716 Jim Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:57:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103716 While he may not have the capital-C- Captain bestowed on him by the media like Varitek... Bengie Molina has more of less bestowed that "C" on himself. He signed on in 2006 when there was a bit of a leadership vacuum and he basically thinks he's Johnny Bench reincarnated. He perceives any mention of him slowing down, slumping, etc. into some huge ordeal. The manner in which he carries himself would make you think the Hall of Fame is on the verge of waiving the 5 year waiting period for him. If you want a delusional catcher going into his late 30's who provides an OBP that is good for a pitcher, then Bengie Molina is your guy. While he may not have the capital-C- Captain bestowed on him by the media like Varitek… Bengie Molina has more of less bestowed that “C” on himself. He signed on in 2006 when there was a bit of a leadership vacuum and he basically thinks he’s Johnny Bench reincarnated. He perceives any mention of him slowing down, slumping, etc. into some huge ordeal. The manner in which he carries himself would make you think the Hall of Fame is on the verge of waiving the 5 year waiting period for him. If you want a delusional catcher going into his late 30′s who provides an OBP that is good for a pitcher, then Bengie Molina is your guy.

]]> By: Kevin S. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103712 Kevin S. Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:40:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103712 Dude, continuing to say that Wieters wasn't ready isn't going to make it any more true. His first month in, he was hitting like a below-average but absolutely useful catcher. The next month, he rocked an OPS that was above average for any position, let alone catcher. Yes, his performance this year is weighted upward by his strong finish, but it seems a little silly to assume that him waiting another month in the minors means he would have just started hitting like he did in July. The guy had an adjustment period, one that easily could have occurred in June or September or next April. Wieters was fine this year. If Posey has a rough one-month adjustment then starts to hit fine over the remaining five, the Giants win. Dude, continuing to say that Wieters wasn’t ready isn’t going to make it any more true. His first month in, he was hitting like a below-average but absolutely useful catcher. The next month, he rocked an OPS that was above average for any position, let alone catcher. Yes, his performance this year is weighted upward by his strong finish, but it seems a little silly to assume that him waiting another month in the minors means he would have just started hitting like he did in July. The guy had an adjustment period, one that easily could have occurred in June or September or next April. Wieters was fine this year. If Posey has a rough one-month adjustment then starts to hit fine over the remaining five, the Giants win.

]]> By: Choo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103706 Choo Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:15:57 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103706 A single infielder walking at a brisk pace around the diamond could turn that scenario into an unassisted triple play. He wouldn't even need arms. A single infielder walking at a brisk pace around the diamond could turn that scenario into an unassisted triple play. He wouldn’t even need arms.

]]> By: Danya http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103698 Danya Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:49:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103698 You make good points about Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez OGC, but I would suggest that Sabean treats position players completely differently. Sabean's been around for 13 seasons now and the Giants have produced two solid position players: Aurilia and Sandoval. (If you wanted to stretch I guess you could throw Feliz in there too.) But I've seen enough Giants positional prospects fizzle that I'm really starting to consider that the team's handling of them is playing a role. If a Giants prospect doesn't mash immediately, they are deemed "not ready" in perpetuity. If Sandoval hadn't ripped off an eight-game hitting streak beginning with his second start, I seriously believe he wouldn't have tasted the majors until this past September. Everyone agrees that prospects need an adjustment period--it's Sabean who doesn't acknowledge this, not his detractors. I'm not saying Posey should have started over Molina in the thick of the pennant race. But for Posey to continue to sit on Molina's days off in favor of Eli ".607 OPS" Whiteside was ludicrous. Posey can only prove himself if he gets a shot, but Sabean/Bochy will only give him a shot once he's proven himself. And so continues the vicious cycle of the Giants' management of positional prospects. You make good points about Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez OGC, but I would suggest that Sabean treats position players completely differently. Sabean’s been around for 13 seasons now and the Giants have produced two solid position players: Aurilia and Sandoval. (If you wanted to stretch I guess you could throw Feliz in there too.) But I’ve seen enough Giants positional prospects fizzle that I’m really starting to consider that the team’s handling of them is playing a role. If a Giants prospect doesn’t mash immediately, they are deemed “not ready” in perpetuity. If Sandoval hadn’t ripped off an eight-game hitting streak beginning with his second start, I seriously believe he wouldn’t have tasted the majors until this past September. Everyone agrees that prospects need an adjustment period–it’s Sabean who doesn’t acknowledge this, not his detractors. I’m not saying Posey should have started over Molina in the thick of the pennant race. But for Posey to continue to sit on Molina’s days off in favor of Eli “.607 OPS” Whiteside was ludicrous. Posey can only prove himself if he gets a shot, but Sabean/Bochy will only give him a shot once he’s proven himself. And so continues the vicious cycle of the Giants’ management of positional prospects.

]]> By: Teej http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103696 Teej Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:42:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103696 Comparing hitters to pitchers is a little misleading. Pitching prospects bust all the time. Everyday players who hit and play defense like Wieters and Posey are far more dependable. Comparing hitters to pitchers is a little misleading. Pitching prospects bust all the time. Everyday players who hit and play defense like Wieters and Posey are far more dependable.

]]> By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103693 B Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:38:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103693 I don't think Sanchez helps your case in the least bit. The way the Giants mismanaged Sanchez was appalling and almost derailed his career. I also don't see how Bowker "flew up" to the majors. He spent 2004-2006 moving up in the minors, got a full season at AA in 2007, and spent some time in 2008 in AAA and MLB (because the Giants were desperate and had no plan for their players), and even then he was given PT because he started out with a bunch of HR's before inevitably becoming the player everyone knew he was. Really, all these examples are more proof not a single decisionmaker in the Giants organization understands sample size or has any real long term plan. I can just see spring training coming next season, some nobody shit prospect gets hot (Velez, anyone?) and is handed a job they aren't prepared for, and more imporantly, aren't talented enough for, while someone like Posey is deemed unready because he doesn't light the world on fire in 50 PA's. Also not sure what bringing Homer Bailey up was supposed to accomplish, the kid was pretty clearly not ready for the bigs (see 7.9 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 2007, 7.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 2008, all that in the minors)... If we start Posey, is he going to tear it up? I don't think anyone's suggesting it's a given - most of us even understand big time prospects, even ones who succeed in the minors, don't always make it in the Majors. I think it's not unrealistic to expect Posey to outperform Molina, though (because that's not saying much). More importantly, though, is just that I would like to see a plan in place. To this point the Giants have shown they don't have any idea what they're doing with their prospects, all their decisions are made on the latest "how do I feel today" whim. If we wanted to start Posey's arbitration clock....why would we bring him up and not play him? If we don't think he's ready, why bring him up at all? Let him go play for Team USA or something so he gets more PT. Do we want to start Posey next year or not? Do we want to delay his arb clock enough and then start him? If so, how is that consistent with what we did in Sep? I just fear at some point, the answers to these questions will depend 100% on a judgment of a very small sample size... I don’t think Sanchez helps your case in the least bit. The way the Giants mismanaged Sanchez was appalling and almost derailed his career. I also don’t see how Bowker “flew up” to the majors. He spent 2004-2006 moving up in the minors, got a full season at AA in 2007, and spent some time in 2008 in AAA and MLB (because the Giants were desperate and had no plan for their players), and even then he was given PT because he started out with a bunch of HR’s before inevitably becoming the player everyone knew he was.

Really, all these examples are more proof not a single decisionmaker in the Giants organization understands sample size or has any real long term plan. I can just see spring training coming next season, some nobody shit prospect gets hot (Velez, anyone?) and is handed a job they aren’t prepared for, and more imporantly, aren’t talented enough for, while someone like Posey is deemed unready because he doesn’t light the world on fire in 50 PA’s.

Also not sure what bringing Homer Bailey up was supposed to accomplish, the kid was pretty clearly not ready for the bigs (see 7.9 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 2007, 7.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 2008, all that in the minors)…

If we start Posey, is he going to tear it up? I don’t think anyone’s suggesting it’s a given – most of us even understand big time prospects, even ones who succeed in the minors, don’t always make it in the Majors. I think it’s not unrealistic to expect Posey to outperform Molina, though (because that’s not saying much).

More importantly, though, is just that I would like to see a plan in place. To this point the Giants have shown they don’t have any idea what they’re doing with their prospects, all their decisions are made on the latest “how do I feel today” whim. If we wanted to start Posey’s arbitration clock….why would we bring him up and not play him? If we don’t think he’s ready, why bring him up at all? Let him go play for Team USA or something so he gets more PT. Do we want to start Posey next year or not? Do we want to delay his arb clock enough and then start him? If so, how is that consistent with what we did in Sep? I just fear at some point, the answers to these questions will depend 100% on a judgment of a very small sample size…

]]> By: 080808 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bengie-molina-hits-the-market/#comment-103692 080808 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:24:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10639#comment-103692 If Red Sox signs him, I don't think so, though. bases-loaded with Ortiz, Lowell, and Kotchman, Molina on the plate.. this is possibly best scenario, a routine ground ball can be turned into triple play by mediocre infielders. If Red Sox signs him, I don’t think so, though.

bases-loaded with Ortiz, Lowell, and Kotchman, Molina on the plate..

this is possibly best scenario, a routine ground ball can be turned into triple play by mediocre infielders.

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