Best All Around Player Of 2008
When scouts dream at night, they dream of five tool players – guys who can hit for average, hit for power, run, catch, and throw. These are considered the building blocks on which a superstar is built, and the very best players in the game can usually do most, if not all, of those things at a very high level.
There are a decent amount of true five tool players in baseball right now, and at one time or another, almost all of them have been referred to as “the best all around player in the game”. But who really has been the best of the bunch – the guy with a diverse skillset who exceeds in every area of the game – in 2008?
Here are the contenders, in alphabetical order:
Carlos Beltran, .280/.371/.490, 38 2B, 4 3B, 24 HR, 21 SB, 3 CS
Curtis Granderson, .293/.375/.504, 24 2B, 13 3B, 19 HR, 10 SB, 4 CS
Hanley Ramirez, .294/.396/.527, 33 2B, 4 3B, 30 HR, 33 SB, 12 CS
Jose Reyes, .295/.359/.474, 34 2B, 18 3B, 14 HR, 50 SB, 14 CS
Alex Rodriguez, .304/.393/.584, 33 2B, 0 3B, 34 HR, 17 SB, 3 CS
Grady Sizemore, .271/.379/.513, 36 2B, 3 3B, 32 HR, 38 SB, 5 CS
Alfonso Soriano, .291/.351/.561, 29 2B, 0 3B, 29 HR, 19 SB, 2 CS
Chase Utley, .289/.377/.533, 38 2B, 4 3B, 31 HR, 12 SB, 2 CS
David Wright, .298/.386/.534, 40 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 15 SB, 5 CS
Hits For Average
For the most part, they’re all pretty similar. A-Rod’s the only one who cracks .300, but besides Sizemore and Beltran, they’re all in that .290 to .300 range. Sizemore’s contact issues leave him at the bottom of the barrel in this specific tool.
Hits For Power
Again, A-Rod has a slight lead in longballs, with most of the group being around that 30 HR mark. However, power isn’t just hitting the ball over the wall, as we see from guys like Jose Reyes, who has 66 extra base hits even though he only has 14 dingers. Wright has racked up more XBH than the rest (73), but Rodriguez’s slight lead in HRs and fewer plate appearances make him the winner in this category.
Running
At first glance, we have our first landslide, as Reyes has 50 steals while no one else even has 40. However, Sizemore’s 38 steals and just 5 CS is more impressive. To catch Reyes, he’d simply have to go 12 for 21 in stolen base attempts the rest of the way, and I think we’d all agree that he probably could run at a 57% success rate if he really wanted to – he’s just choosing not to because it would hurt his team. We can’t ignore the extra bases Reyes has been able to take turning doubles into triples, however, so he wins this category even though Sizemore’s been the better base stealer. There’s a big dropoff after those two, with everyone else clustering around the same area.
Fielding
The combination of range and fielding ability, the Fielding Bible’s +/- system is quite helpful here. They have Utley at a ridiculous +39 plays above an average second baseman this year, but second base is comprised of worse defenders than shortstop, so we have to account for the position adjustment. John Dewan’s system has Beltran at +17 plays in CF, which is fantastic, and Sizemore at +9, which is also very good. It has everyone else at around average (or worse, in Granderson’s case) for 2008, so we can realistically look at Utley, Beltran, and Sizemore as the category leaders. Beltran’s +17 as a CF is extremely impressive, but no matter how many adjustments you make, it’s hard to get away from Utley’s +39. He could be a good shortstop or CF if the Phillies wanted to move him, and he’s proving it every year. Utley gets the nod here.
Throwing
Here’s where it gets a bit subjective – most people would agree that Hanley, Reyes, and Soriano have impressive arm strength, while Sizemore and Granderson certainly don’t. But we don’t have any seasonal data that tells us who has been more valuable throwing the ball this year, so I’ll just let you pick your own winner here. I’m going with Reyes, because he has more opportunities to use his arm at SS than others do, but I’ll let someone talk me out of that if they want to try.
So, after going through all five categories, what have we learned? A-Rod’s the best in the batters box, with small advantages in average and power, but he falls off in running and fielding. Reyes is the fastest and might have the strongest arm, but he hits half as many home runs as most of the others. Wright is solid across the board, but isn’t the best at anything.
For me, it comes down to Sizemore, Beltran, and Ramirez. Hanley has best average but the worst baserunning and the worst defense of the three, so he’s out. Sizemore’s average brings him down, and Beltran has a slight edge defensively, but it’s hard to get past 71 extra base hits, 38 steals at an 88% success rate, and terrific defense in center field.
So, my vote for the best all around player in baseball in 2008 goes to Grady Sizemore.
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Dave,
Would you have considered Joe Mauer a 5-tooler coming into this year? He didn’t run a lot, but when he did, he didn’t get caught.
While Mauer is certainly a great player, it’s hard to argue the ’speed’ aspect. If you can put Mauer up there, you can certainly put Pujols up there as well.
Doesn’t a player with this slash line deserve consideration?
.290/.336/.562, 37 2B, 6 3B, 35 HR, 14 SB, 4 CS
These are Ryan Braun’s stats and by my lights they compare favorably to the stats of Beltran, Reyes, and Soriano. You could argue that they compare favorably to the stats of everyone on this list with the exceptions of Rodriguez and Sizemore.
He has a lower OBP than the rest on this list, but his SLG is higher than a lot of the others. Braun has slumped for the past few weeks, and he missed nearly two weeks with a ribcage injury in August. But his numbers are still pretty impressive – and might be even more so if he reverts to normal form in the last two weeks of the season. He should be on this list, I think.
Defense, boys, defense. Braun is an offensive weapon, but not a defender. Pujols plays first well, but that’s like saying he’s the prettiest out of all the ugly girls. And he can’t run…neither can Mauer.
I’m surprised that Dave didn’t go with Utley as the best all around. Playing second obviously knocked him down, but that’s an awfully large positional adjustment to tip the scales in Sizemore’s favor.
And Dave, would you consider “Best all around” synonymous with “player you’d pick first for your team?” Would you take Sizemore over Pujols?
I would argue that we need to take a more sophisticated looking at “running” than merely stolen base totals. Running is about acquiring the maximum number of bases, and stolen bases are just part of that puzzle, even with CS factored in. Using Dan Fox’s EqBRR would give us a much better picture, though I’m not sure it’s calculated regularly and, if so, if it’s publicly available.
I wonder if that sort of approach would bring in guys like Pujols who may be excellent base runners, but not a prolific base stealer.
Another name I’d throw in the hopper is Matt Holliday. I can’t say much about his arm, and certainly no amount of good LF defense compares to plus defense up the middle, but .326/.412/.548, with 27/28 SB is pretty well rounded.
I think Dave’s defining “best all-around” as the player who’s the best at the five tools. So not being good at one of them hurts a lot more than being really good at one of them helps.
Ryan Braun rates surprisingly well (above average) in LF by the zone ratings this year, although a corner outfield spot is nothing to brag about. He should be on the list, but probably not in my top five. I might go with Soriano actually, although I haven’t and won’t spend a lot of time thinking about it.
In reference to Marcu’s comment about Pujols being “the prettiest of all the ugly girls” when it comes to defense. Which is better, being the best defensive firstbaseman (and I think he is by a longshot, or at least he was last year), or being the worst or close to the worst defensive shortstop (in Hanley Ramirez)? Or an average-ish left fielder (in Soriano).
Also, how come Kinsler isn’t on this list? I’m guessing it’s because his numbers are about the same as Utley’s, except his defense is obviously way worse.
Ramirez was about average defensively in his first season and has been close to average this year. Last year may have just been a off year.
Don’t forget Holliday or Berkman.
I think Soriano should merit a bit more consideration after factoring in how few at bats he has had this year. With just a bit over 400 AB’s he has nearly thirty homers, thirty doubles and twenty stolen bases. On a different note, he seems to have learned how to take a few pitches this year and has already accumulated his second highest walk total despite logging just 80-100 game’s worth of AB’s.
Lots of ways to get at best all-around. For instance, I’d include lefty/right splits too. An “all around” batter shouldn’t have an outlandish platoon split.
Something else to consider: Sizemore is hitting .322/.431/.625 at home, .221/ .326/ .397 on the road. That may just be a one-year fluke, but it would be a debit against his standing in my book.
Alex Rios anyone?
Cleveland’s park has played as a pitcher friendly park the last few years, so I can’t agree that Sizemore should be docked because he’s performing significantly better at home than on the road. We’d need to have some reason to believe that the park is actually having an effect on his performance, rather than it just being random, if we were going to take any credit away from him for those hits.
The platoon splits thing is a good point, though.
Nick Markakis needs to be considered. He is still pretty young but he has all the tools.
Nothing like the conclusion that Grady Sizemore is a better player than Albert Pujols to show you that scouting is a deeply flawed art. I agree that this is the right conclusion by the “five tools” criteria, but boy does this make these criteria look dumb.
But, speaking of criteria, doesn’t the Sizemore conclusion kind of ignore batting average. If we’re going to stick to the five tools criteria, Sizemore is a bad hitter compared with the rest. Also, when we penalize Hanley for being caught stealing, we’re ignoring the fact that, according to scouts, getting caught doesn’t matter if you steal a lot. In a play off situation you’ve got to manufacture runs!
Philosofool, you make a good point. However, I wonder where the problem really lies. Is it in the scouts, who have to evaluate the raw skills because that’s how observation works? Or is it management who should be properly weighting the various skill assessments to form a summary valuation? When a GM goes out and cites a player’s well-roundness as supporting evidence for a claim of overall value, the failure is the GMs for not accounting for the differential value of the various skills; not of the scout who assessed them.
And likewise, if a scout says that “so-and-so” is the best player in baseball because he can “do it all”, he should be reminded of the same. His expertise is in measuring the variables — not working out the equations they populate.
An analysis like the one above reminds me of a fantasy baseball ranking. It’s certainly interesting, but it serves to answer a very specific question — one which might not be broadly applicable.
I think the purpose of this post was to identify the most well rounded player, not the one who provides the greatest amount of production. There’s certainly a good bit of overlap, but they are fundamentally asking a different question.
Rick’s right – try to ignore the concept of “most valuable” in this conversation. No one’s arguing that Sizemore > Pujols, just as no one is claiming that the guy who won the decathlon is better than a sprinter. But we can acknowledge that a decathlete is better at more things than a sprinter without slighting the sprinter.
Sizemore has a broader base of skills than Pujols. Pujols is better at the ones that matter most, but that doesn’t matter for this discussion, because that’s not what we’re talking about.
Cleveland’s park has played as a pitcher friendly park the last few years, so I can’t agree that Sizemore should be docked because he’s performing significantly better at home than on the road.
Actually, it’s more of a batter’s park (three year park factor of 103) and even more so this year (one-year factor of 106). I agree with your general point, but a 100-point diff in BA, even in one year, warrants further analysis and begs the question.
Gassko’s article in March paints a different picture, showing Progressive as a park that squashes home runs, triples, and singles, while promoting doubles, walks, strikeouts, and ground balls.
If the Indians as a team were displaying a huge split this year, it’d be more compelling, but outside of Sizemore (and small sample guys like Choo and Cabrera), there’s not this obvious shift to Progressive being hitter friendly this year.
Unless we’re talking about the batter’s eye, I fail to see how a stadium can promote strikeouts and walks. Ditto specific batted balls. Am I missing something?