Big Question Mark
Straight out of literature; embattled young man takes his dreams elsewhere, becomes a lionized figure in the world of baseball, then experiences a tragic fall from grace. David Ortiz is one of Theo Epstein’s masterstrokes as GM, and could quickly become one of his greatest challenges. A contract extension in 2006 has Ortiz earning 12.5 million this and next year, and then a club option for 2011 without a buyout. If Ortiz continues hitting like he’s hitting – not at all – the contract can quickly become an albatross.
The best method to avoid such faith is to figure out whether Ortiz will improve or not and then decide on an appropriate action to pursue. Ortiz’ vitals show a declined walk rate, increased strikeout rate, and uncharacteristic ISO. Ortiz’ BABIP is .263, lower than last year, and far lower than Ortiz’ career .307 BABIP. This is despite an increased amount of line drives and fly balls being hit. In the old days, more fly balls meant more homeruns, right now, Ortiz’ HR/FB is 1.7%, a drastic decrease from previous years; 26.1% in 2006, 17.2% in 2007, and 14.8% in 2008.
Ortiz’ O-Swing% is at a post-2002 high 25.8%, the previous five-year high came in 2008; 20.6%. This means Ortiz is swinging out of the strike zone more and this is leading to the changes in walk and strikeout rates. Ortiz is swinging nearly 50% of the time and only making contact 76.1% of the time, consider that his career averages in those measures are 44.6% and 78.1%.
Hit Tracker Online is a ridiculously handy resource. You get a graphical view consisting of each Ortiz’ during the last four years and over measures, like the speed of the ball off of the bat. In 2007 Ortiz launched 35 homeruns and had an average speed of nearly 105 MPH, that number was actually up in 2008 to 106.3 MPH but his amount of homeruns dropped. The difference seems relatively unimportant, and the sample size for this year’s SOB – which registers in around 96 MPH, for what it’s worth – is so small that nothing can be drawn from the data.
Pardon me for stating the obvious, but something isn’t quite right with Ortiz and it seems to be physical. Either Oritz’ pitch recognition abilities are slipping, which would explain the increased hacks and decrease solid contact, and/or his bat speed, which again, would explain the former two as well as the loss of power. I’m not sure Ortiz can regain either ability, even if I do think he’s going to finish with a wOBA well above .300.
Of course, I also never thought I’d write that about David Ortiz.
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It seemed physical at first, but now it seems both physical–and with the struggling–mental as well. Although he did hit show some good patience last night, and hit two balls deep to center that happened to be tracked down by Denard Span. The night before, he ripped a double into the gap, although not much lift on it, just a typical line drive base hit put in the right place.
I tend to agree with Joe on this one. If there’s one thing the numbers will never tell us, it’s mental make up. Statistics become so useless in tiny little chunks, it’s hard to point to any given at-bat and say, “THIS is where the pressure got to Big Papi.”
I looked at Ortiz’s numbers a couple weeks ago and thought he was coping fairly well, considering the situation. Making assumptions about how a player’s handling the pressure is generally unsubstantial but at some point it’s gotta happen, right? A players gotta succumb, right?
At some point during the season, Ortiz had issues clearing his hips and gettin’ around on pitches without cheating — It doesn’t even matter if the ailment’s still there, because Papi’s stepping up to the plate as if it were..
No buy out clause? WTF?
Good article, but is this really true?
“Of course, I also never thought I’d write that about David Ortiz.”
Maybe you didn’t think you’d be writing it this soon (he’s only 33) but you had to think a fat, unathletic DH was going to hit the wall sometime in his mid-30′s. Ortiz’s type has never aged well, in the history of baseball.
Should’ve put “this season”. You’re right.
“If Ortiz continues hitting like he’s hitting – not at all – the contract can quickly become an albatross.”
Really? You think $12.5M this year and next is going to prevent the Red Sox from spending money? You think Theo Epstein and John Henry are going to think “Well, sure, I’d like to pick up a Matt Holliday or re-sign Jason Bay, but since we’re paying Ortiz $12.5M to sit on the bench we just can’t afford it.” Seems unlikely to me.
I don’t believe I said that. I’m pretty sure they’d rather not have 12.5 million of dead weight sitting around though.
Reading comprehension, you lack – yoda
Well, still rather have that contract than Hafner’s :)
I just looked at Hafner’s contract. Yikes.
11.5+11.5+13+13+2.75 = 51.75MM
Over the remainder of this season plus the next three years. I suppose this makes up for the deal they are getting with Sizemore.
Mi amigos, I accidentally taking PEZ instead of PEDs this year. Lo siento, perdoname por favor!
I can’t decide if this is hilarious, racist, or both.
Both.
A question, perhaps a dumb one: David Ortiz’s player page indicates that his replacement adjustment thus far is 6.6 runs. Now, I understand the rationale for the replacement adjustment: you want to recognize players who stay in the lineup and keep you from needing to use replacement-level players.
This year’s David Ortiz, however, is not a replacement-level player. He has already dropped to -1.0 WAR based solely on his hitting and his DH position. A replacement-level DH would be an improvement over ’09 Big Papi. So why do we continue to credit him for accumulating plate appearances which honestly could be better used by a replacement-level DH? Should we consider his continued presence in the lineup as a negative for him? It certainly is for the Red Sox.