Comments on: Bill James Projections – Updated http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bill-james-projections-updated/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: David Appelman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bill-james-projections-updated/#comment-9070 David Appelman Sat, 10 Mar 2007 17:25:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bill-james-projections-updated/#comment-9070 Heh, yeah.... 19-2 does seem pretty lofty. If you look at just innings/ERA: Bill James Handbook (BIS) : 190/3.13 CHONE: 187/3.27 ZiPS: 186/3.44 ... the Handbook's projections seem reasonably in-line with the others. I think the most wins the Handbook projects for a pitcher besides Matsuzaka is Santana at 18-8. Oddly enough, only one pitcher has ever won 19 (or more) games with only 2 losses: Greg Maddux in 1995. Randy Johnson came close when he went 18-2 in 1995 and Roy Face was 18-1 way back in 1959. So umm.... if it's intended, it's pretty out there. Maybe they're just having a bit of fun with all the Matsuzaka mania. ;) Heh, yeah…. 19-2 does seem pretty lofty. If you look at just innings/ERA:

Bill James Handbook (BIS) : 190/3.13
CHONE: 187/3.27
ZiPS: 186/3.44

… the Handbook’s projections seem reasonably in-line with the others.

I think the most wins the Handbook projects for a pitcher besides Matsuzaka is Santana at 18-8.

Oddly enough, only one pitcher has ever won 19 (or more) games with only 2 losses: Greg Maddux in 1995. Randy Johnson came close when he went 18-2 in 1995 and Roy Face was 18-1 way back in 1959.

So umm…. if it’s intended, it’s pretty out there. Maybe they’re just having a bit of fun with all the Matsuzaka mania. ;)

]]> By: Michael http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bill-james-projections-updated/#comment-9069 Michael Sat, 10 Mar 2007 16:54:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bill-james-projections-updated/#comment-9069 Is that a data problem with the projection for Matsuzaka? It seems unlikely that they actually intended to project a 19-2 Win-Loss record. Is that a data problem with the projection for Matsuzaka? It seems unlikely that they actually intended to project a 19-2 Win-Loss record.

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