Comments on: Billy Butler’s 2009 vs. Alex Gordon’s 2008 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:42:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: TJ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109908 TJ Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:50:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109908 sorry must be as I only know about 6 KC fans I got the wrong read on the fanbase. However 5 of them support DM through thick and thin sorry must be as I only know about 6 KC fans I got the wrong read on the fanbase. However 5 of them support DM through thick and thin

]]> By: PhD Brian http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109859 PhD Brian Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:26:05 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109859 "Butcher!" no data I can find supports that claim. Looking here Gordon's UZR/150 has been +7.9, -3.6, -2.7 over the last three years at 3rd (2007-2009). Average defense is said to be +\- 5 or between -5 and +5 UZR. So Gordon was above average in 2007 and average to slightly below in 2008 and 2009. I would not call him a butcher at all. He is more like an average defender at third. “Butcher!” no data I can find supports that claim. Looking here Gordon’s UZR/150 has been +7.9, -3.6, -2.7 over the last three years at 3rd (2007-2009). Average defense is said to be +\- 5 or between -5 and +5 UZR. So Gordon was above average in 2007 and average to slightly below in 2008 and 2009. I would not call him a butcher at all. He is more like an average defender at third.

]]> By: PhD Brian http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109850 PhD Brian Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:52:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109850 I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Royals chances to beat 81 wins in 2010. All it would take is 150 starts by roughly the 2008 version of Alex Gordon and Mike Avilas (SS) (2-3 WAR each). 150 starts and age based improvement from Callaspo and Butler (2-2.5 WAR). The same WARs from Dejesus, all the Catchers, as 2009 (both over 3). A zero WAR from right field and DH (Jacobs and Guillen I know this is optimistic). Greinke to be nearly as good as last year (6-8 WAR). 150+ innings each from Bannister, Tejeda, Meche pitching as well as the Bill James projections (each would be roughly 2+ WAR). Hochevar to improve more like scouts believe and get his FIP into the low 4s (Bill James projections have him in the high 4s) with also 150 innings (1.5-2 WAR). Bullpen to be on par or better than last season (3+ WAR total). That makes roughly 33 WAR or an 81-83 win team roughly, so it is reasonable to project a .500 team for the Royals if they stay really healthy. I am actually somewhat optimistic about the Royals chances to beat 81 wins in 2010. All it would take is 150 starts by roughly the 2008 version of Alex Gordon and Mike Avilas (SS) (2-3 WAR each). 150 starts and age based improvement from Callaspo and Butler (2-2.5 WAR). The same WARs from Dejesus, all the Catchers, as 2009 (both over 3). A zero WAR from right field and DH (Jacobs and Guillen I know this is optimistic). Greinke to be nearly as good as last year (6-8 WAR). 150+ innings each from Bannister, Tejeda, Meche pitching as well as the Bill James projections (each would be roughly 2+ WAR). Hochevar to improve more like scouts believe and get his FIP into the low 4s (Bill James projections have him in the high 4s) with also 150 innings (1.5-2 WAR). Bullpen to be on par or better than last season (3+ WAR total). That makes roughly 33 WAR or an 81-83 win team roughly, so it is reasonable to project a .500 team for the Royals if they stay really healthy.

]]> By: Matt Klaassen http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109848 Matt Klaassen Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:45:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109848 1) Butler was 23 in 2009 (trivia) 2) My point (and this isn't the only thing about this) is not, to repeat yet again, that Butler isn't a good hitter with a lot of upside. I say this repeatedly in the post. The poinst of the post is about value... But to the splits thing: separating out his second half from his first half as if that has any great significance beyond the fact that his whole season was good doesn't prove anything. The season as a whole was good, combined with his age, his previous performances (adjusted for age and level, etc., ) and so on, are the main reasons we think he'll be a good hitter going forward. The second-half, _taken on its own_, adds little or nothing to that. 325 PA just isn't all that much taken on its own, not compared to the 672 over the whole season, not when you take into account how much variance there is around a players true talent even over a whole season. 1) Butler was 23 in 2009 (trivia)

2) My point (and this isn’t the only thing about this) is not, to repeat yet again, that Butler isn’t a good hitter with a lot of upside. I say this repeatedly in the post. The poinst of the post is about value…

But to the splits thing: separating out his second half from his first half as if that has any great significance beyond the fact that his whole season was good doesn’t prove anything. The season as a whole was good, combined with his age, his previous performances (adjusted for age and level, etc., ) and so on, are the main reasons we think he’ll be a good hitter going forward. The second-half, _taken on its own_, adds little or nothing to that. 325 PA just isn’t all that much taken on its own, not compared to the 672 over the whole season, not when you take into account how much variance there is around a players true talent even over a whole season.

]]> By: R M http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109842 R M Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:34:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109842 That study is based mainly on established major league players, and it really doesn't apply in this situation. Butler is 22, a highly touted prospect showing a new level of hitting for the first time. The fact that he did it in the second half may or may not be important, but he has shown us that he can hit at the next level over an extended period of time, and that is significant. That study is based mainly on established major league players, and it really doesn’t apply in this situation.

Butler is 22, a highly touted prospect showing a new level of hitting for the first time. The fact that he did it in the second half may or may not be important, but he has shown us that he can hit at the next level over an extended period of time, and that is significant.

]]> By: Jeffro http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109812 Jeffro Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:57:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109812 "beating out celebrated glove-man Mike Jacobs" ROFLMAO “beating out celebrated glove-man Mike Jacobs”

ROFLMAO

]]> By: Ben F http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109792 Ben F Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:09:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109792 like what they ate for breakfast yesterday? like what they ate for breakfast yesterday?

]]> By: Choo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109789 Choo Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:03:36 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109789 I think you and I are on the same page. The issue in question here is Player Ability vs. Value Earned. There is no reason why they can’t be combined, but to create the most accurate model they must be measured separately first. Here is why: WAR tells us how much value, measured in single-season wins, a player earned for his team(s) during Season Z based on league averages of Season Z. If we introduce prorated player values (UZR let’s say) earned during Season X and Season Y, then our league averages (still just Season Z) become distorted multipliers. And if we include prorated league averages (X and Y) to match our prorated player averages then we are no longer calculating WAR, or single-season win values for Season Z. We are creating an assessment of player ability (past, present, future) similar to Marcel’s, CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, etc. Those are great, just like WAR is great, but like a Reese’s peanut butter cup we have to make the peanut butter and chocolate separately – completing the recipe for each – before we can combine them. I agree that WAR isn’t perfect and I agree that using multiple years of data paints a more accurate picture of a player’s true ability, but that’s not what WAR is for. I think you and I are on the same page. The issue in question here is Player Ability vs. Value Earned.

There is no reason why they can’t be combined, but to create the most accurate model they must be measured separately first. Here is why: WAR tells us how much value, measured in single-season wins, a player earned for his team(s) during Season Z based on league averages of Season Z. If we introduce prorated player values (UZR let’s say) earned during Season X and Season Y, then our league averages (still just Season Z) become distorted multipliers. And if we include prorated league averages (X and Y) to match our prorated player averages then we are no longer calculating WAR, or single-season win values for Season Z. We are creating an assessment of player ability (past, present, future) similar to Marcel’s, CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, etc. Those are great, just like WAR is great, but like a Reese’s peanut butter cup we have to make the peanut butter and chocolate separately – completing the recipe for each – before we can combine them.

I agree that WAR isn’t perfect and I agree that using multiple years of data paints a more accurate picture of a player’s true ability, but that’s not what WAR is for.

]]> By: lookatthosetwins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109758 lookatthosetwins Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:25:06 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109758 Ha, you remember that comment, huh. Anyway, you can see from this thread why I normally avoid it. Minutes of my life. Wasted... Ha, you remember that comment, huh. Anyway, you can see from this thread why I normally avoid it. Minutes of my life. Wasted…

]]> By: lookatthosetwins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-2009-vs-alex-gordons-2008-perception-and-reality-in-the-age-of-war/#comment-109757 lookatthosetwins Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:22:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11851#comment-109757 Ha. That makes so much more sense... I need to quit writing responses at 2 a.m. Ha. That makes so much more sense… I need to quit writing responses at 2 a.m.

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