Blame it on Ichiro
Ichiro recently reached 200 hits for the ninth consecutive season. Not by coincidence, that matches his career length in the major leagues, meaning he’s reached the plateau in every season since making the leap. That’s a lot of hits and one of the reasons for Ichiro’s streak is his ability to generate infield hits. Ponder his totals:
2002 – 41
2003- 34
2004 – 57
2005 -31
2006 – 41
2007 – 44
2008 – 49
2009 – 49
337 infield hits over eight years – or roughly 42 per season. That’s a ton of hits and none of them have left the infield. Since Ichiro is left-handed and his follow through includes “starting towards” first base, you would expect a fair number of those to be of the bunt hit variety. Yet he’s only laid down 50 bunt hits since 2002 and has attempted only 98 bunts – which equates to a pretty ridiculous success rate when he does choose to lay one down.
Not only does Ichiro lead the league in infield hits, but by a pretty considerable amount. He has 21 more than second place Michael Bourn, 22 more than Carl Crawford, 24 more than Jacoby Ellsbury, and 33 more than Hanley Ramirez. With such it’s little surprise that the Mariners lead the league in infield hits. Ichiro obviously makes up a large contribution, but Franklin Gutierrez (14) and Adrian Beltre (13) are into double digits as well.
The Oriles, Dodgers, Nationals, and Yankees round out the top five in league-wide infield hits as a team. Meanwhile the Braves, Cubs, Pirates, Indians, Phillies, and Reds have considerably fewer infield hits.
17
Whoa. He’s a huge outlier. He must be doing steroids.
If you count nonselfish infield hits he would have 0.
i don’t even understand what that means. please explain.
Ichrio’s been called selfish a bunch of times for doing things that help his team win, it’s stupid. It’s a joke about how dumb that reputation is.
Yes.
Far more noble are those selfless sluggers who top the ball to short, and trundle down the line with the alacrity of a Galapagos Tortoise just to be sure they record and out.
Seriously Slurve, what the eff do you mean by your comment?
“an” out, not “and” out.
Muppet.
Colm, did you not read B’s explanation? Seem’s perfectly logical to me.
It’s a running joke about some people’s opinion of Ichiro, Colm.
To be fair, some people give Ichiro way too much praise as a hitter.
Find the middle road of the two idiocy-extremes to form your opinion on the man.
I’m curious about your opinion of Ichiro, Joe. I ask because you’d probably consider me one to give him way too much praise.
You’ve never listened to Orestes Destrade, have you?
I’ve looked over the numbers, he’s been a bit better over the years then JD Drew. People adore Ichiro and consider him a Hall of Fame lock. People hate JD Drew.
Fact is, Ichiro is to the now what George Sisler was in Ruth’s time. Great BA, terrible SecA. In fact, if you set their careers into a standard, 750 run / team season context (you can do it on baseball-reference), here’s their lines:
Sisler: .340/.380/.466
Ichiro: .349/.394/.452
And yes Ichiro is a great fielder too and he will deserve the hall when he gets there, but when your hitting line looks almost exactly the same as, who Bill James calls the most “overrated player ever”, pre-decline phase, well, that’s not exactly a shining advertisement.
“I’ve looked over the numbers, he’s been a bit better over the years then JD Drew. People adore Ichiro and consider him a Hall of Fame lock. People hate JD Drew.”
Joe R: That is a pretty horrible comparison. If JD Drew could play a full season every year, as much as we may hate him, I think there would be some serious HOF buzz also. Drew’s problem has not been the quality of his production but the quantity. And the fact that he has a bit of a habit of doing bait and switch on his employers/fanbases. And that he plays best only during contract years. But I assure you, if JD Drew played on year-to-year contracts and stayed healthy- he would be a HOF lock. (Note: This will not happen)
But back to the point, comparing Ichiro to Sisler or a healthy JD Drew is exactly why he will be a HOF lock with a couple more years of production. Likewise, Sisler may be overrated- but at this point I don’t think anyone is going to be putting Ichiro in the top 35 players ever, are we?
On the other hand, in some respects while Ichiro may get too much respect as a hitter (since he does not have extra high power, nor a guady OBP)- he might also get too little. Ichiro has definitely shown that he can get hits reliably off of great pitching. If you want to think about building a championship-ready squad, those are the kind of guys you want. Don’t get me wrong. Walks and extra base hits are great, they’re awesome. But if you’re facing Maddux in his prime, you’re not going to get a walk. If you can have a guy like Ichiro though, who is a lock to get at least one hit in basically every game- regardless of pitcher, and somebody to knock him in though, that could keep you in the game.
So basically, I think that using mean performance for batting is dumb. There, I said it. Median performance is probably a better indicator of across the board talent. And better yet, a system of pitcher-adjusted WAR would be useful. But I digress…
The moral of the story is that while the argument can be made that he’s overrated, I think an equally solid argument exists that he could even be underrated. But somebody with datasets handy would have to check that out..
“To be fair, some people give Ichiro way too much praise as a hitter. Find the middle road of the two idiocy-extremes to form your opinion on the man.”
That’s a great observation. Ichiro is either the greatest player in the entire league, whose greatness is overlooked by the plebeian fanbase; or, Ichiro is a completely selfish player who gets hits only for his own personal glory, and never does anything to help his team win.
Ichiro is a terrific player. He’s not as good as people like Dave Cameron make him out to be. There are flaws in his game. (When a batter swings at a 3-1 outside the strike zone and pops-out to third, that’s not a good baseball move, even if Ichiro is the batter.) That said, Ichiro is good enough at what he does at the plate, and contributes both on the bases and in the field to the point where he is definitely an asset, and not a detriment, to his team.
Ach, forgive me if I misconstrued irony. I was tired.
Infield hits are as bad as walks
and home runs are rally killers
Who are the Oriles?? Did you guys hire people that take care of the Natinals’ jerseys??
This is an insightful and necessary comment.
So is this.
As well as this.
Yeah, someone else on Fangraphs wrote an article a while back about how a large percentage of his infield hits are to the third base side; it’s all by design for him.
And I don’t understand the selfish thing either. He bats leadoff. He does everything he can to get on base. That’s his job.
Everything, except you know, take walks. He will swing at ball 4 just for the chance to beat out a slow roller to 3rd.
career splits:
3-0 count: 224 PA’s, 206 BB’s
3-1 count: 289 PA’s, 111 BB’s
3-2 count: 477 PA’s, 94 BB’s
he walks in 42% of his PA’s that get to 3 ball counts.
the 2009 AL average is 43%.
doesn’t seem that out of the ordinary.
also, don’t forget that an infield hit >= walk.
Ouch, Jeff V — your baseless opinion just got bitch-slapped by facts.
What are we blaming on him?
Acne.
cancer
War.
I think you mean WAR
Megan Fox?
She must be one of those “non-longball” chicks he was talking about.
Recession
George Bush
Barack Obama
Patrick Swayze
Climate change and ACORN
You blame it on the alcohol, not Ichiro.
Infield hits do actually have less value than outfield hits, though. For one, they don’t advance runners as far as outfield singles, and what might be an infield hit with no one on will sometimes get another runner forced if they have less speed. Since 17% of his hits are in the infield, that would depress his value somewhat as compared to what his average/OBP might indicate.
Is there a breakdown of infield hits by situation (runners on base)? It would be interesting if Ichiro has significantly fewer with runners on.
Except infield “hits” that get another runner forced are not hits.
Yes, yes, obviously. I was referring to the fact that a ball that would be an infield hit for Ichiro with no one on might end up being an out with runners on base.
Right… but since these are not included as “hits” in Ichiro’s batting averate, how does this depress his value? It doesn’t.
Your argument about how outfield hits are higher in value is valid however.
If he is getting fewer hits with men on base, it depresses his value by making him less “clutch.” Both WPA and WPA/LI will be worse if a hitter does worse with men on base.
I don’t expect the effect is very large, but it is there.
well, about 20% of his PA’s are automatically going to happen with no one on base, so whatever way he can get on base with the highest frequency seems to be the best approach in that situation.
and it’s not like none of his hits ever make it through the IF.
True, but they have more value that walks, and that is something that people tend to overlook.
If Ichiro were a .300/.378 hitter, instead of .333/.378, I think some people would have more “respect” for his game. And given that Ichiro has demostrated that his ability to get these hits is not a fluke, I think that is wrong.
Just curious, why does an infield hit have more value than a walk?
an infield single can advance runners that wouldn’t be moved up via walk.
it doesn’t ALWAYS have more value, but it sometimes does, and it never has less.
For example, runner on second can advance to third on the infield single, whereas a walk would not have advanced him.
And that’s ignoring the fact that you can create a chance for an error with the ball in play.
Is Ichiro the most polarizing skill set in all of baseball? Some people get downright orgasmic over his contact, while others scream “He hits .360 but it’s an EMPTY .360″. BA is dumb, but at .360, I have the faith that a player knows what he’s doing.
Also, a BA of .360 implies an OBP of at least .360. At that point, you’re still getting a damn good hitter.
I always seem to piss someone off with my stance on him. I view him as a guy whose career justifies him being a Hall of Famer, but not one of the all-time greats that people always remember (aka the Ralph Kiner zone).
Old-school side: WTF HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT HE GETS 200+ HITS A SEASON HE IS MAGICAL AND BETTER THAN PUJOLS
SABR side: HIS SECONDARY AVERAGE AND SLUGGING SUCK, HE PLAYS IN A POWER POSITION WITH NO POWER
All caps intended
Because Ichiro’s not a leadoff hitter with the accompanying naturally depressed runners-on-base stat. What an idiotic statement. He doesn’t hit 4 or 5 with people on base in front of him; of course he does it with fewer runners on.
And even if he weren’t a leadoff hitter, what does such a stat indicate other than the previous hitters’ ability to get on base?
Clutch is a stat, but clutch hitting is not a skill. Ugh.
well, it was a valid point until the whole “forcing” thing. I think it’s fair to say that you don’t get a lot of 1st to 3rds on rollers down the line. Additionally, it can be harder for that hitting style to work with runners on. Ichiro is still pretty awesome.
Nice, I like the Blame it on Rio Reference
I blame it on that chink in the armor Jae-Hoon Ha, quite frankly.
This is one of the best comment strings I’ve ever read on FanGraphs. Well played.
Curious, for me at least, is the infield hits keep coming, while the other speed related stats are down (to use the most glaringly obvious, stolen bases). Just a random fluctuation here, or could Ichiro have become such a master of the tip-and-run as to no longer require plus-plus speed? Ideas?
Ichiro has averaged 36.5 SB per season since his rookie year (not including the as-yet incomplete 2009). The MASSIVE outlier from that data sat is his rookie season of 56 steals. Year-to-year, Ichiro’s steal totals are as follows [SB/(SB+CS) | success]:
2001: 56/70 | 80.00%
2002: 31/46 | 67.39%
2003: 34/42 | 80.95%
2004: 36/47 | 76.69%
2005: 33/41 | 80.49%
2006: 45/47 | 95.74% (insane success rate)
2007: 37/45 | 80.22%
2008: 43/47 | 91.49% (almost as crazy as ’06)
In 2009, Ichiro is 26/35 | 74.29% in 139 games–having missed 16 games during the season to injury, one of which was a bruised shin. Even coming back to play, if he wasn’t at 100%, it depresses his totals due to sheer body fatigue.
In short, the “speed” stats aren’t going down year-to-year, and you can’t really read into this season’s stolen base totals as an indicator of such. Even his career UZR/150 totals aren’t terribly depressed this season. Taking out the highest high and the lowest low (the outliers), Ichiro’s average UZR/150 is 6.77. This season he’s at 6.5.
The man still has it.
Building on what Michael said, the four-part speed scores listed on his player page here have varied, with two exceptions, between 6.3 and 7.6. The one exception is this year, which has already been talked about, and 2004 looks like it was just an aberration. If someone knows of something specific that went on with him that year, all the better. Still he looks fairly consistent in the speed department.
Is Ichiro selfish? I’m not sure, but it’s always said that he has 20-25 HR power and chooses not to because he wants a high batting average. Accepting that this premise is true, it either means Ichiro feels his current skill set is more valuable to his team or he selfishly wants the high hit/BA totals even though the team is less likely to win. I don’t claim to know his motives, and I also am not sure if the 20 HR Ichiro (who would undoubtedly not have nearly as many IF hits, and who knows what else) would be a better player. But I’m pretty sure Ichiro has never actually done the legwork to find out if he’s actually the best player he supposedly can be.
This thread taught me something: Apparently Ichiro is a “great” defensive player. I’ve gotta be honest, I’m absolutely flabbergasted by his FanGraphs UZR numbers, because I know MGL’s think he’s very meh in right and pretty bad in center. I wonder what the discrepancy is. By the eye test, I never thought he was anything at all special defensively outside of his amazing arm.
My view, for what it is worth, is that he is a HOFr, but still a tad over rated as he is no Ricky Henderson or Tim Raines who were the two best leadoff hitters in history. He has also never had a year as good as some Kenny Lofton put up with Cleveland. But, without question I would enshrine him in the Hall.
for comparison at the age of 35 kenny Lofton had played i 11 seasons (vs 9 for Ichiro). He had a career on base percentage at that time of .3786 which is just a smidgen higher than Ichiro career .377 (same age). He had more SBs (508 vs 341) and a lowerSB % (79% vs 81%) than Ichiro. Ichiro is slightly better in slugging .434 vs .425 than Lofton at the same age. Now I consider Lofton a maybe HOFr and Ichiro was marginally better at the same age as Lofton, so he is a HOFr, but only just.
Anybody who mentions Ichiro in the same breath as Henderson or Raines is out of their mind.
Ichiro has slightly lower rate states than Tim Raines. Why can’t I (or anyone else) mention Ichiro in the same breath as Purple Raines and maintain sanity?
Why? wOBA.
Raines posted 20 years of wOBA ranging from .350-.420; dipping below .350 only 2 times period. Ichiro has been a consistent .330-.380 over 9 seasons, with 4 below .350, 5 above. Couple the extreme wOBA with the 20+ SB/Year advantage for Raines, and you have a gigantic difference in the two which – one so big it eliminates the possibility for a realistic comparison.
Here’s your comparison:
Raines – .308 EqA
Ichiro – .295 EqA
Raines – 5.77 WARP-3 per 650 PA
Ichiro – 5.36 WARP-3 per 650 PA
Ichiro’s more durable, but as players, Raines was better. Ichiro has the BA glamour, though.
@PhD Brain
If you compare pre-36 Lofton to pre-36 Ichiro, you see this
.333/.378/.434 Ichiro, 341 SB, 6595 PA
.298/.375/.424 Lofton, 508 SB, 6824 PA
Now, that Lofton line is actually drastically better then the Ichiro one, despite them looking rather similar at first glance. The reason being that singles create a completely hallow SLG; a higher W% and ISO is lightyears better then a high H% and low ISO. If we look deeper at those lines, we see why
Ichiro reached based at a .378 clip, that’s 2493 times with 228 2B, 68 3B, 84 HR and 341 SB. It breaks down like this (assuming SB is of 2B)
6595 PA, 2493 TOB
1772 Times On 1B – or 26.9%
569 Times on 2B/PA – or 8.6%
68 Times on 3B/PA – or 1.0%
84 Times got Home/PA – or 1.3%
Compare to Lofton
.375 OBP, 2559 TOB, 286 2B, 73 3B, 103 HR and 508 SB. That is
6824 PA, 2559 TOB
1589 Times on 1B/PA – or 23.3%
794 Times on 2B/PA – or 11.6%
73 Times on 3B/PA – or 1.1%
103 Times Home/PA – or 1.5%
You can see what I mean
Ichiro – 26.9% on 1B, 10.9% past 1B
Lofton – 23.3% on 1B, 14.2% past 1B
Spread it over 700 PA to represent a season
Ichiro – 188 on 1B, 76 past 1B
Lofton – 163 on 1B, 99 past 1B
Which would you rather have? You pick Lofton all day long, don’t you?
Ichiro has a nice BA which makes a nice OBP in the end, but his Slugging is way too low with relation to his BA (or ISO, as we call it). People might say that a Single is worth more then a Walk, but it doesn’t end up true at all when you start factoring in XBH rates – the very few times that single moved a runner from 2nd to 3rd are easily countered by the huge number of times he didn’t get into scoring position himself.
You have some interesting stats, but there are other things to consider…
Pre-36 Lofton’s stolen base success rate per PA: 79.25%
Pre-36 Ichiro’s stolen base success rate per PA: 81.19% (based on 6607 PA, now that the season has ended)
The difference is pretty small, but it means that while Lofton might make it past first base more often, he is also slightly more likely to “lose” the base he started on. The 1.94% difference isn’t so much, but considering Lofton attempted more steals, he was not only caught at a higher rate, but likely lost more bases overall. But… this would likely not amount to much of a change on your original stats.
The “hits are better than walks” thing covers a variety of issues, though. Your note on the XBH rates is an important consideration as well, though.
Ichiro is the better hitter in terms of just getting ANY kind of hit… While there is a valid argument that a slugger with less singles and a lower batting average is preferable, folks what hit for average are valuable in other ways. Well, this goes for Lofton, too, for that matter. Instead of comparing apples to tomatoes, we’ll compare Lofton and Ichiro again. Ichiro is the better hitter (when it comes to simply getting base hits) and that helps him in other areas, for example the number of times the batter grounded into a double play.
Pre-36 Lofton GDP rate per PA – 1.084%
Pre-36 Ichiro GDP rate per BA – 0.651%
Say the bases are loaded with no outs… Lofton might hit for some more power and nab some more RBI. He could even go with a sacrifice fly with 1 out and bring in some runs. But if you are in a one-out, bases-loaded situation in which all you need is one run… and you really, really need that run… Ichiro is by far the better guy. He has the best potential to get a hit and not get mixed up in a double play.
In either situation of course, a walk wouldn’t be a bad thing at all, but when you have no choice but to try for the hit, the best hitter for average is more important.
The aforementioned scenario probably happens only a few times per season (especially for leadoff batters) – but it does happen… Just like getting caught stealing effectively “loses” you a base, grounding into a double play “loses” multiple bases all at once. Both of these statistics might not affect your findings all that much… (I wonder how, exactly, they could be factored into those stats anyhow.)
The ability to get a hit when a hit is required, though, is noteworthy. There are situations in which you just need any ole hit, and the high average guy is the best possible baseball player for this type of thing. (For that matter, Lofton was a very good hitter for average. I didn’t calculate his pre-36 average, but he did manage to hit rather well after the age of 36, too.)
Question – Is there a way to quickly view a player’s stats for only certain years? For example, I’d like a quick way to view just the pre-36 Lofton stats. Seems like a useful idea.
“Ichiro is the better hitter (when it comes to simply getting base hits) and that helps him in other areas, for example the number of times the batter grounded into a double play.”
Actually, a huge chunk of a leadoff hitters value is seeing pitches. A first or second pitch single to lead off the game is really less valuable then taking pitches for a walk.
Also, interestingly, 70.3% of Loftons (career) DPs were with only one on – that being the runner at first. In contrast, 62.8% of Ichiro’s came in that situation. Which means, of course, that Ichiro has grounded into 37.2% of his DP while runners were in scoring position, verses 29.7% for Lofton (again, for his career). Then, between the ages of 27-35 Lofton grounded into 59 DP to Ichiro at 43 – a difference of 16, or 1.7 a season. Not much of a difference really. Well, not enough of one to really have any significance on runs scored – especially since Lofton is less likely to have had one with a RISP.
If we put a number to that, (assuming the career rate was consistent between ages 27-35) we would see about 18 (well, 17.5) of Loftons 59 DP from 27-35 would have come with a runner in scoring position. Ichiro on the other hand had 16 of his 43 come with RISP – that is a difference of only 1 to 2 DP (remember, it was 17.5) with RISP for Lofton to Ichiro over a 9 year span. It doesn’t mean the extra DP didn’t hurt, but they had about the same number with RISP as your next point gets around to…
“But if you are in a one-out, bases-loaded situation in which all you need is one run… and you really, really need that run… Ichiro is by far the better guy. He has the best potential to get a hit and not get mixed up in a double play…. In either situation of course, a walk wouldn’t be a bad thing at all, but when you have no choice but to try for the hit, the best hitter for average is more important.”
In the context in which you presented it (bases loaded), this isnt true. A walk would ensure the run crosses the plate, putting the ball in play completely places the runners chances in the hands of luck. If the ball is hit to short, that fielder likely comes home to nab the run – clearly making contact less valuable. Compounding this issue with regards to Ichiro, this conversation began because of the extreme amount of infield hits he relies on (brought about by a gigantic GB%). Lofton, of course, had a large number of Infield hits as well, but not nearly the GB%. And an infield grounder with the bases loaded is quite possibly the last thing you want (might as well of struck out), yet its one of the most likely outcomes from an Ichiro PA – not so from Lofton.
In fact, getting back to the “other area” thing you brought up earlier – Lofton from 27-35 had 41 SacHits and 43 SacFlies to Ichiro at 24 and 28 respectively. And that is over a lower AB total for Lofton (4752 PA to 6099 for Ichiro). Factor the rates to an even 600 AB really fast (assuming a 1/3 Runners-On rate, where both had a fairly equal BA with runners on verses empty)
600 AB, 200 AB-MenOn, 67 H-MenOn, 2 SH, 3 SF, 2 DP
600 AB, 200 AB-MenOn, 60 H-MenOn, 5 SH, 5 SF, 2 DP
(DP rates from above. Ichiro rounded up from 16 DP-MenOn/9 season, or 1.8 per)
So, you can see that the extra 7 hits with Men On are quickly countered by the extra 5 sacrifices. And since Lofton had a higher ISO and lower GB%, they were more likely to actually score. Ichiro would be relying on the hitters following him up to actually put those runners across the plate at a higher percentage, which is probably a good chunk of the reason why Lofton had 3 more RBI in 1170 less PA. And I would rather have the Run then the opportunity; I imagine you feel the same.
Ichiro is also great at running down balls in the gap with his speed along with his renown throwing arm
and please DO NOT blame it on Ichiro.
Ichiro is not as good as Rickey Henderson! WHOA!
And he probably isn’t as good as Tim Raines! (Let’s not talk about any “side issues” right now. Oh! But Ichiro’s an empty-BA selfish player!).
That Mike Schmidt guy was no Ruth, y’know. And Brett could’ve hit for more power if he’d… oh! He did? Ah,… Hey! Now, look at [rummages through the Magic Bag o' Stats] his TSMMAC! (This Stat Makes My Asinine Case!).
Anti-Ichiro people really are so full of crap it sicken me to wade through their droppings just to post my disgust. Baseball to too, too many people is something not to enjoy but to bitch and moan about. And I really don’t like it. Or them.
You just gave what is possibly the worst post I have ever seen on this website – congrats.
So you know, there arent “Anti-Ichiro” people here, there are realists and there are fandom-types. Fandom guys are the types who instantly claim Ichiro is a HOF talent without looking at context. Realists see better players who are not in the HOF, so they question such a stance. Case in point, Kenny Lofton produced Ichiro numbers over 17 combined years with a more consistently productive peak, Ichiro has 9 up and down seasons. Yet Ichiro is the no-brainer for the HOF? And this stance is mainly because Ichiro has that rather meaningless high BA? Wouldnt that be a perfect example of a “TSMMAC”, as you put it?
Look, I guess I will say that I am sorry there were better players then the guy you apparently are a huge fan of, but there were. And I am sorry that those other players deserve to be in the HOF before your favorite player, but they do. And I am sorry this upsets you to the point you need to try to attack anyone who feels differently; but that is your issue, and no one elses. But if you really want to argue greatness by what you feel in your heart and dismiss anything of value in your way, then you picked the wrong website to come to. This site is designed to provide stats. And not only that, but these stats are provided to show value! So when we see a person coming to a site about stats designed to show value on a quest to bitch and moan about the people using the stats which are intended to show value, then we found the real problem – and FYI, it isnt the stats.
That your silly reply had nothing to do with my expression of annoyance at biased framing tactics pretty much makes any further comment than this unnecessary.
And a parting shot, just to express my lack of respect for you, yourself: that Lofton was something in the field, wasn’t he?
As much as I love Ichiro (my fondness for him obviously doesn’t emanate from a supposed statistical greatness), his shiny high batting average and title as seasonal hit king have elevated him to the mythological status he probably does not deserve. He will probably make the Hall, but it will be deserved, in my opinion, because of the impact he has had on the game as MLB’s first Japanese position player. His cultural value, unlike his on-field performance, is much harder to quantify, but I think it in itself is Hall-worthy.
Did any of you see that walk-off home run Ichiro hit off Mariano Rivera last season? Ichiro is going to the Hall of Fame, that is where he is meant to be. We would have to go Kevin Costner’s cornfield to watch them play side by side to make a real determination. As a Seattle fan, I have been so happy to watch Ichiro beat out infield hits the last few years. For long portions of the last couple of dismal seasons, that was the only bright spot. I hope that he keeps demoralizing the left side of the infield with his bat and continues to scare everyone away from hitting into right field.
Lofton was more valuable on offense? Very likely.
Ichiro was more valuable overall? I think so. I don’t think the defense is a mirage. (I also admire the guys who do it pretty consistently year after year – though I know “peak” is ascendant in SABR HOF circles these days)
Do you give Ichiro some props for the fact that he didn’t have the option to play in MLB until he was 27? I do, partially because I don’t think his skillset needed until age 27 to peak. I bet he played his best season at age 23 or 24 when he (and the Major League owners) didn’t have the option to let him test his mettle against the best competition available.
That’s why I feel he should be in the hall. He’ll get 3,000 hits and probably go in in his first year, even though he wasn’t as good as Raines or Larkin or probably Trammell or Whitaker or Santo or Grich.
Life isn’t fair.
@pinball1978: You are correct that Lofton’s UZR stats (only available for post-2002 seasons) don’t compare to Ichiro’s. To be fair, this was later in Lofton’s career, probably when he was past his prime (defensively, at least). Still, I tihnk it’s safe to assume Lofton wasn’t anything close to the defensive player Ichiro is. Then again, I didn’t watch Kenny Lofton play regularly in the ’90s.
Given the lack of UZR data for Lofton, can we truly compare their overall value in a fair way? Note that I’m just interested in the theory behind this, not in actually knowing whether Ichiro was “better” or “worse” than Lofton.
One reason Ichiro will make the HOF while Lofton might not – it’s called the hall of FAME, not the hall of sabermetric statistics. 3,000 hits and being the first Japanese positional player star is all it will take. Now back to your regular scheduled programing.
Hey guys, sorry if this has already been posted on here but ask yourself this: when it comes down to it, when ichiro hustles out an inning extending 2-out infield hit, are you going to sit back in your seat and go “man, if only he’d stop being so selfish and drop a bomb…” I think it is much too common for players to hurt their team by trying to hit to many homeruns rather than do what they are good at.
I adore Megan Fox, I think she is extremely hot!